FC St. Pauli vs FSV Mainz 05 – 3 May 2026

Bundesliga Gameweek 32 Sun, May 3 · 14:30 Millerntor-Stadion, Hamburg

FC St. Pauli 16th · 26 pts · 31 played LDLDL

1–2Full time

FSV Mainz 05 10th · 34 pts · 31 played WWLDL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

FC St. Pauli24.0%fair odds 4.17

Draw25.5%fair odds 3.93

FSV Mainz 0550.6%fair odds 1.98

Expected goals1.08 – 1.68total 2.76

Likeliest score1–112.1%

Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.

Match Opportunity

How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.

FC St. Pauli

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

FSV Mainz 05

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

About this comparison

The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.

Score matrix

FC St. Pauli ↓ · FSV Mainz 05 →	0	1	2	3	4	5	6+
0	6.9	10.0	8.9	5.0	2.1	0.7	0.3
1	6.3	12.1	9.6	5.4	2.3	0.8	0.3
2	3.7	6.2	5.2	2.9	1.2	0.4	0.1
3	1.3	2.3	1.9	1.1	0.4	0.1	0.1
4	0.4	0.6	0.5	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0
5	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
6+	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are FC St. Pauli goals, columns FSV Mainz 05 goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.

Most likely scores

1–112.1%8.26
0–110.0%10.01
1–29.6%10.38
0–28.9%11.26
0–06.9%14.42
1–06.3%15.99
2–16.2%16.03
1–35.4%18.58
2–25.2%19.14
0–35.0%20.15

Winning margin

2.7% FC St. Pauli by 3+ fair 36.66

6.6% FC St. Pauli by 2 fair 15.25

14.7% FC St. Pauli by 1 fair 6.81

25.5% Draw fair 3.93

23.0% FSV Mainz 05 by 1 fair 4.34

15.6% FSV Mainz 05 by 2 fair 6.39

11.9% FSV Mainz 05 by 3+ fair 8.41

Goal distribution

Total goals

7%0

16%1

25%2

22%3

15%4

15%5+

FC St. Pauli goals

34%0

37%1

20%2

7%3

2%4+

FSV Mainz 05 goals

19%0

31%1

26%2

15%3

9%4+

LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda

	LOAD90	EloLambda	Change
FC St. Pauli win	24.0%	23.9%	+0.1 pp
Draw	25.5%	25.9%	-0.5 pp
FSV Mainz 05 win	50.6%	50.2%	+0.4 pp
Over 2.5	52.1%	50.2%	+1.9 pp
Both teams score	54.4%	53.0%	+1.4 pp
Expected goals FC St. Pauli	1.08	1.05	+0.03
Expected goals FSV Mainz 05	1.68	1.63	+0.05

EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.

All markets model probability and fair odds

Result

FC St. Pauli win24.0%4.17
Draw25.5%3.93
FSV Mainz 05 win50.6%1.98
Double chance FC St. Pauli or draw49.4%2.02
Double chance FC St. Pauli or FSV Mainz 0574.5%1.34
Double chance FSV Mainz 05 or draw76.0%1.32
Draw no bet FC St. Pauli32.2%3.11
Draw no bet FSV Mainz 0567.8%1.47

Goals

Over 0.593.1%1.07
Over 1.576.8%1.30
Over 2.552.1%1.92
Over 3.529.9%3.34
Over 4.514.6%6.84
Under 1.523.2%4.31
Under 2.547.9%2.09
Under 3.570.1%1.43

Both teams to score

Yes54.4%1.84
No45.6%2.19
Yes and over 2.542.3%2.36
FC St. Pauli win and yes12.2%8.20
Draw and yes18.5%5.40
FSV Mainz 05 win and yes23.7%4.22

Team goals

FC St. Pauli over 0.566.2%1.51
FC St. Pauli over 1.529.5%3.39
FC St. Pauli over 2.59.7%10.36
FSV Mainz 05 over 0.581.3%1.23
FSV Mainz 05 over 1.549.9%2.00
FSV Mainz 05 over 2.523.6%4.23
FC St. Pauli clean sheet18.7%5.34
FSV Mainz 05 clean sheet33.8%2.96
FC St. Pauli win to nil11.8%8.49
FSV Mainz 05 win to nil26.9%3.72

Handicap

FC St. Pauli −1.59.3%10.77
FC St. Pauli −2.52.7%36.66
FSV Mainz 05 +1.590.7%1.10
FSV Mainz 05 +2.597.3%1.03
FSV Mainz 05 −1.527.5%3.63
FC St. Pauli +1.572.5%1.38

Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.

Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026

All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.

Matches scored285 Favourite won55.8% Avg chance given to result43.0% 1X2 Brier0.567 Over 2.5 called right62.1% BTTS called right59.6%

Calibration · when the favourite was given…

Favourite chance	Matches	Predicted	Actually won
30–40%	38	38.3%	34.2%
40–50%	91	45.0%	46.2%
50–60%	73	55.1%	60.3%
60–70%	43	64.7%	67.4%
70–80%	27	74.1%	77.8%
80%+	13	87.2%	76.9%

LOAD90 vs Bookmaker

Compared on the same 238 of 285 scored matches.

	LOAD90	Bookmaker
1X2 Brier (lower is better)	0.5617	0.5569
Avg chance given to result	43.3%	42.8%
Favourite won	56.7%	55.5%

Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 238 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.

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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 285 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.