FC St. Pauli
Attack—
Defense risk—
FC St. Pauli
18th · 12 pts · 17 played
DWDLL
0–0Full time
Hamburger SV
14th · 17 pts · 17 played
WLDLD
Our take
It was too close to call.
Hamburger SV were the stronger side on L90 Strength (33 vs 25). FC St. Pauli had 6.2 days of rest, Hamburger SV 6.2 and had to travel 0 km.
Away travel0 kmRest days6.2 · 6.2Matches / 14d2 · 2
FC St. Pauli38%
Draw27%
Hamburger SV35%
FC St. Pauli38%
Draw27%
Hamburger SV35%
FC St. Pauli38%
Draw27%
Hamburger SV36%
FC St. Pauli31%
Draw26%
Hamburger SV43%
FC St. Pauli38%
Draw27%
Hamburger SV35%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Hamburg)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyTobias Welz
- Cards per match 4.4
- Penalties per match 0.24
- Matches 46
Team strength
FC St. PauliHamburger SV
25
L90 StrengthIn forecast
33
24
Current StrengthIn forecast
40
20
AttackIn forecast
37
23
DefenceIn forecast
43
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisHamburger SV
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FC St. PauliHamburger SV
0.94
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.82
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.59
0.76
xGVia Att/Def
1.01
1.49
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.45
+0.18
Goals minus xGContext
-0.01
59%
Scored inContext
59%
12%
Clean sheetsContext
24%
9.94
ShotsContext
12.94
3.56
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
34%
On target shareContext
39%
5.59
Shots in the boxContext
8.56
55%
Box shareContext
65%
10%
ConversionContext
8%
2.46
OffsidesContext
2.33
11.47
Shots allowedContext
13.59
5.12
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.06
3.69
BlocksContext
3.75
3.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.33
66%
Save rateContext
63%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
437
PassesContext
401
346
Accurate passesContext
331
79%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.72
Team ratingContext
6.83
10.06
FoulsContext
12.29
9.88
Fouls sufferedContext
12.94
1.53
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.06
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
0.54
xGVia Att/Def
0.98
1.71
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.38
+0.26
Goals minus xGContext
+0.02
60%
Scored inContext
70%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
8.50
ShotsContext
13.30
2.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.30
28%
On target shareContext
40%
4.60
Shots in the boxContext
9.10
52%
Box shareContext
72%
9%
ConversionContext
8%
2.38
OffsidesContext
2.50
12.30
Shots allowedContext
12.50
5.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.56
3.75
BlocksContext
3.78
3.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.63
63%
Save rateContext
53%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
402
PassesContext
406
313
Accurate passesContext
333
78%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.71
Team ratingContext
6.81
8.40
FoulsContext
11.60
8.30
Fouls sufferedContext
12.70
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
FC St. Pauli
Rest6.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km839 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Hamburger SV
Rest6.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,271 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| FC St. Pauli |
Hamburger SV |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.2Bundesliga 2025-2026, 17 Jan | 6.2Bundesliga 2025-2026, 17 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 0 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 839 km | 1,271 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 2 | 1 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4 | 7.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
FC St. Pauli
Confirmed XI
22N. Vasilj(G)
3K. Mets
5H. Wahl
25A. Dźwigała
23Louis Oppie
8E. Smith
6J. Sands
11Arkadiusz Pyrka
28M. Pereira Lage
19M. Kaars
16J. Fujita
Hamburger SV
Confirmed XI
1D. Heuer Fernandes(G)
28M. Muheim
25J. Torunarigha
44L. Vušković
24N. Capaldo
21N. Remberg
20Fábio Vieira
38Alexander Røssing-Lelesiit
11R. Königsdörffer
18B. Jatta
19D. Downs
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences FC St. Pauli
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Hamburger SV
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- FC St. Pauli+0.2 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Hamburger SV-0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
FC St. Pauli · Home
1.00points per game · 7 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-4
- Scored
- 1.14
- Conceded
- 2.14
Hamburger SV · Away
0.25points per game · 8 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-6
- Scored
- 0.50
- Conceded
- 2.25
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | FC St. Pauli | Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund | L 2–3 AD 3–3 H | D 1–1 H |
| VfL Wolfsburg | L 1–2 A | L 0–1 H |
| FSV Mainz 05 | D 0–0 A | W 4–0 H |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | W 2–1 H | W 2–1 H |
| 1.FC Köln | D 1–1 A | L 1–4 A |
| Bayern München | L 1–3 A | L 0–5 A |
| Union Berlin | L 0–1 H | D 0–0 A |
| SC Freiburg | L 1–2 A | L 1–2 A |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | L 0–4 H | D 0–0 HD 0–0 A |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | L 0–2 A | D 1–1 H |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | L 0–3 H | L 1–4 A |
| Werder Bremen | L 0–1 A | W 3–2 H |
| VfB Stuttgart | L 0–2 A | W 2–1 H |
| FC Augsburg | W 2–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Points | 9 of 45 · 0.60 per game | 17 of 45 · 1.13 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
1 FC St. Pauli wins0 draws0 Hamburger SV wins
Goals per game2.00 – 0.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets100% · 0%
- 29 Aug 2025Hamburger SV0–2FC St. Pauli
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| FC St. Pauli | Hamburger SV | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.94 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.82 | 1.59 | |
| Match goals | 2.76 | 2.59 | 2.79 |
| Over 1.5 | 82% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 59% | 53% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 24% | 29% | |
| Both teams scored | 53% | 53% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 12% | 24% | |
| Failed to score | 41% | 41% | |
| Games | 17 | 17 |
| FC St. Pauli | Hamburger SV | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.80 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.90 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 2.70 | 2.79 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 50% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| FC St. Pauli | Hamburger SV | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.06 | 3.63 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.69 | 4.56 | |
| Match total | 9.75 | 8.19 | 9.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 69% 11/16 | 31% 5/16 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 8/16 | 31% 5/16 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 7/16 | 19% 3/16 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.59 | 2.35 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.29 | |
| Match total | 3.59 | 4.64 | 3.95 |
| Over 3.5 | 47% 8/17 | 76% 13/17 | |
| Over 4.5 | 29% 5/17 | 59% 10/17 | |
| FC St. Pauli | Hamburger SV | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.40 | 4.11 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.50 | 3.89 | |
| Match total | 9.90 | 8.00 | 9.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.20 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 2.70 | 4.60 | 3.95 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Tobias Welz Germany · 46 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.24league 3.79
Red cards0.15league 0.19
Cards 5+41%league 39%
Fouls23.5league 21.1
Penalties0.24league 0.31
Home wins46%league 45%
FC St. PauliNo previous matches with this referee.
Hamburger SV1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L18 Oct 25A · RB Leipzig1–21
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
FC St. Pauli17 games · scored 16 · conceded 31
1
2
0-15
1
3
16-30
4
8
31-45
3
8
46-60
3
4
61-75
4
6
76-90
Hamburger SV17 games · scored 17 · conceded 27
2
4
0-15
2
5
16-30
1
3
31-45
4
5
46-60
4
4
61-75
4
6
76-90
FC St. Pauli10 games · scored 8 · conceded 19
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
2
6
31-45
1
4
46-60
3
2
61-75
1
5
76-90
Hamburger SV10 games · scored 10 · conceded 17
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
31-45
1
3
46-60
3
3
61-75
4
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
