FC Volendam vs Sparta Rotterdam – 21 Dec 2025

Eredivisie Knockout phase Sun, Dec 21 · 15:45 Kras Stadion, Volendam

FC Volendam 16th · 14 pts · 16 played WDLLL

0–1Full time

Sparta Rotterdam 10th · 20 pts · 16 played LDLWL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

Sparta Rotterdam were the stronger side on L90 Strength (19 vs 13). Absences weigh more on FC Volendam. FC Volendam had 7.9 days of rest, Sparta Rotterdam 7.2 and had to travel 75 km.

Away travel75 kmRest days7.9 · 7.2Matches / 14d1 · 2

FC Volendam36%

Draw27%

Sparta Rotterdam37%

Expected goals 1.33 – 1.36

FC Volendam37%

Draw27%

Sparta Rotterdam36%

Expected goals 1.35 – 1.32

FC Volendam37%

Draw27%

Sparta Rotterdam36%

Expected goals 1.36 – 1.34

FC Volendam29%

Draw27%

Sparta Rotterdam44%

Expected goals 1.19 – 1.52

FC Volendam36%

Draw27%

Sparta Rotterdam37%

Expected goals 1.32 – 1.34

Over 2.5 50% Both score 55% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Volendam)

No weather data yet

Referee · NetherlandsJeroen Manschot

Cards per match 3.4
Penalties per match 0.30
Matches 44

Team strength

FC Volendam

Sparta Rotterdam

13 L90 StrengthIn forecast 19

14 Current StrengthIn forecast 18

14 AttackIn forecast 32

19 DefenceIn forecast 17

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

FC Volendam

Attack—

Defense risk—

Sparta Rotterdam

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

FC Volendam

Sparta Rotterdam

1.19 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.06

1.88 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.94

1.03 xGVia Att/Def 1.28

1.61 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.56

+0.16 Goals minus xGContext -0.22

75% Scored inContext 69%

6% Clean sheetsContext 31%

10.25 ShotsContext 11.88

3.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00

34% On target shareContext 34%

6.19 Shots in the boxContext 8.06

59% Box shareContext 69%

12% ConversionContext 9%

1.38 OffsidesContext 1.55

17.81 Shots allowedContext 17.19

5.69 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.87

5.63 BlocksContext 4.56

3.94 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.60

69% Save rateContext 67%

44% PossessionIn forecast 45%

360 PassesContext 376

290 Accurate passesContext 297

81% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.80 Team ratingContext 6.87

8.81 FoulsContext 8.50

12.06 Fouls sufferedContext 10.13

1.13 Yellow cardsContext 1.69

0.06 Red cardsContext 0.06

This league season, per match · 16 and 16 games

1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.90

1.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

1.13 xGVia Att/Def 1.30

1.73 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.39

+0.07 Goals minus xGContext -0.40

70% Scored inContext 60%

10% Clean sheetsContext 30%

9.60 ShotsContext 12.10

3.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.90

33% On target shareContext 32%

6.00 Shots in the boxContext 8.30

60% Box shareContext 70%

13% ConversionContext 7%

1.25 OffsidesContext 1.57

18.50 Shots allowedContext 15.30

5.10 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.22

6.70 BlocksContext 4.20

3.20 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.33

63% Save rateContext 70%

45% PossessionIn forecast 48%

358 PassesContext 395

291 Accurate passesContext 316

81% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.82 Team ratingContext 6.89

7.90 FoulsContext 9.70

11.80 Fouls sufferedContext 11.10

1.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.10

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

FC Volendam

Rest7.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km257 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Sparta Rotterdam

Rest7.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel75 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	FC Volendam	Sparta Rotterdam
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.9Eredivisie 2025-2026, 13 Dec	7.2Eredivisie 2025-2026, 14 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	75 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	257 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 3	0 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	20	21

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

FC Volendam Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1K. van Oevelen(G)

32Y. Leliendal 20N. Verschuren 3M. Amevor 2D. Payne

18N. Bukala 8G. Yah

7O. Kökçü 10B. Kuwas 11A. Oehlers

9H. Veerman

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Sparta Rotterdam Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1J. Drommel(G)

5T. Quintero 4R. Martins Indi 3M. Young 2S. Sambo

8J. Kitolano 6J. Baas

11S. Mito 10A. Santos 7M. van Bergen

9T. Lauritsen

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

FC Volendam Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Sparta Rotterdam Scores -0.03 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

FC Volendam-1.0 pp
Draw+0.1 pp
Sparta Rotterdam+1.0 pp

Home / Away this season

FC Volendam · Home 1.50points per game · 8 home games

W-D-L: 3-3-2
Scored: 1.75
Conceded: 1.38

Sparta Rotterdam · Away 1.29points per game · 7 away games

W-D-L: 3-0-4
Scored: 1.14
Conceded: 1.86

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	FC Volendam	Sparta Rotterdam
Groningen	L 0–3 A	W 2–0 A
NEC Nijmegen	L 2–3 H	L 1–3 A
PSV Eindhoven	L 0–3 A	L 1–6 A
Twente	D 1–1 H	L 1–5 H
NAC Breda	W 2–1 H	W 1–0 H
Feyenoord	L 1–3 A	L 0–4 H
Heracles	W 3–0 H	L 0–3 A
Utrecht	L 1–3 A	W 2–1 H
Fortuna Sittard	L 0–1 A	D 1–1 H
PEC Zwolle	W 2–1 H	L 0–1 A
Excelsior	L 1–2 H	W 1–0 A
GO Ahead Eagles	L 0–3 A	W 3–0 A
Ajax	D 1–1 H	D 3–3 H
Telstar	D 2–2 A	W 1–0 H
AZ Alkmaar	D 2–2 H	L 0–1 H
Heerenveen	D 1–1 A	L 0–3 H
Points	14 of 48 · 0.88 per game	20 of 48 · 1.25 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings

0 FC Volendam wins0 draws1 Sparta Rotterdam wins

Goals per game1.00 – 4.00 Over 2.5100% Both scored100% Clean sheets0% · 0%

12 Nov 2023FC Volendam1–4Sparta Rotterdam

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	FC Volendam	Sparta Rotterdam	Forecast
Scored per game	1.19	1.06
Conceded per game	1.88	1.94
Match goals	3.06	3.00	2.69
Over 1.5	94%	69%
Over 2.5	75%	56%	50%
Over 3.5	31%	31%
Both teams scored	69%	38%	55%
Clean sheets	6%	31%
Failed to score	25%	31%
Games	16	16

	FC Volendam	Sparta Rotterdam	Forecast
Scored per game	1.20	0.90
Conceded per game	1.90	1.50
Match goals	3.10	2.40	2.69
Over 1.5	90%	60%
Over 2.5	80%	40%	50%
Over 3.5	30%	20%
Both teams scored	60%	30%	55%
Clean sheets	10%	30%
Failed to score	30%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	FC Volendam	Sparta Rotterdam	League
Corners
Corners won	3.80	4.13
Corners conceded	6.80	7.31
Match total	10.60	11.44	10.23
Over 8.5	67% 10/15	94% 15/16
Over 9.5	60% 9/15	75% 12/16
Over 10.5	47% 7/15	63% 10/16
Cards
Cards	1.19	1.81
Opponent cards	2.06	1.88
Match total	3.25	3.69	3.61
Over 3.5	38% 6/16	56% 9/16
Over 4.5	31% 5/16	38% 6/16

	FC Volendam	Sparta Rotterdam	League
Corners
Corners won	3.56	5.10
Corners conceded	7.56	7.00
Match total	11.12	12.10	10.23
Over 8.5	67% 6/9	100% 10/10
Over 9.5	67% 6/9	80% 8/10
Over 10.5	56% 5/9	70% 7/10
Cards
Cards	1.10	2.20
Opponent cards	2.00	1.90
Match total	3.10	4.10	3.61
Over 3.5	30% 3/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Jeroen Manschot Netherlands · 44 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.27league 3.37

Red cards0.14league 0.23

Cards 5+30%league 33%

Fouls19.8league 21.8

Penalties0.30league 0.30

Home wins50%league 47%

FC Volendam

No previous matches with this referee.

Sparta Rotterdam4 with this referee

Record2-0-2 Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.8 Pens for · against0 · 0

W14 Sep 25A · Excelsior1–01
W21 Sep 24A · Waalwijk2–11
L4 Feb 24H · PEC Zwolle0–21
L1 Oct 23A · Excelsior1–21

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.