FC Volendam
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
FC Volendam29.2%fair odds 3.43
Draw25.9%fair odds 3.86
Twente44.9%fair odds 2.23
Expected goals1.24 – 1.59total 2.83
Likeliest score1–112.3%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Twente
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| FC Volendam ↓ · Twente → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 8.8 | 7.5 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 12.3 | 9.2 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.2 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are FC Volendam goals, columns Twente goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.3%8.16
- 1–29.2%10.81
- 0–18.8%11.40
- 0–27.5%13.40
- 2–17.2%13.86
- 1–06.7%14.92
- 0–06.5%15.33
- 2–25.7%17.44
- 1–34.9%20.40
- 2–04.5%22.04
Winning margin
4.1%
FC Volendam by 3+
fair 24.40
8.4%
FC Volendam by 2
fair 11.97
16.7%
FC Volendam by 1
fair 5.98
25.9%
Draw
fair 3.86
21.6%
Twente by 1
fair 4.63
13.7%
Twente by 2
fair 7.28
9.5%
Twente by 3+
fair 10.48
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
15%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
16%5+
FC Volendam goals
29%0
36%1
22%2
9%3
4%4+
Twente goals
20%0
32%1
26%2
14%3
8%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Volendam win | 29.2% | 29.5% | -0.3 pp |
| Draw | 25.9% | 26.7% | -0.7 pp |
| Twente win | 44.9% | 43.9% | +1.0 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 53.7% | 50.9% | +2.8 pp |
| Both teams score | 57.2% | 55.1% | +2.1 pp |
| Expected goals FC Volendam | 1.24 | 1.20 | +0.04 |
| Expected goals Twente | 1.59 | 1.51 | +0.08 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- FC Volendam win29.2%3.43
- Draw25.9%3.86
- Twente win44.9%2.23
- Double chance FC Volendam or draw55.1%1.81
- Double chance FC Volendam or Twente74.1%1.35
- Double chance Twente or draw70.8%1.41
- Draw no bet FC Volendam39.4%2.54
- Draw no bet Twente60.6%1.65
Goals
- Over 0.593.5%1.07
- Over 1.578.0%1.28
- Over 2.553.7%1.86
- Over 3.531.5%3.18
- Over 4.515.7%6.37
- Under 1.522.0%4.55
- Under 2.546.3%2.16
- Under 3.568.5%1.46
Both teams to score
- Yes57.2%1.75
- No42.8%2.33
- Yes and over 2.544.9%2.23
- FC Volendam win and yes15.3%6.54
- Draw and yes19.4%5.15
- Twente win and yes22.5%4.45
Team goals
- FC Volendam over 0.571.0%1.41
- FC Volendam over 1.535.2%2.84
- FC Volendam over 2.512.9%7.74
- Twente over 0.579.6%1.26
- Twente over 1.547.2%2.12
- Twente over 2.521.4%4.67
- FC Volendam clean sheet20.4%4.90
- Twente clean sheet29.0%3.45
- FC Volendam win to nil13.9%7.21
- Twente win to nil22.4%4.46
Handicap
- FC Volendam −1.512.5%8.03
- FC Volendam −2.54.1%24.40
- Twente +1.587.5%1.14
- Twente +2.595.9%1.04
- Twente −1.523.3%4.29
- FC Volendam +1.576.7%1.30
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Eredivisie 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored109
Favourite won54.1%
Avg chance given to result42.9%
1X2 Brier0.552
Over 2.5 called right67.9%
BTTS called right59.6%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 19 | 38.1% | 26.3% |
| 40–50% | 36 | 44.5% | 47.2% |
| 50–60% | 28 | 55.3% | 53.6% |
| 60–70% | 14 | 63.7% | 78.6% |
| 70–80% | 9 | 75.5% | 88.9% |
| 80%+ | 3 | 81.7% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 86 of 109 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5509 | 0.5305 |
| Avg chance given to result | 42.7% | 44.9% |
| Favourite won | 53.5% | 58.1% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 86 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
- ✓NAC Breda 0–1 PSV Eindhoven9·16·75
- ✗GO Ahead Eagles 2–1 Feyenoord24·25·51
- ✓AZ Alkmaar 1–5 PSV Eindhoven27·25·47
- ✓NEC Nijmegen 2–0 Groningen48·25·26
- ✗Utrecht 2–1 Ajax36·27·37
- ✓PEC Zwolle 1–0 Sparta Rotterdam39·27·33
- ✓Fortuna Sittard 2–0 Heerenveen39·27·35
- ✓FC Volendam 2–1 NAC Breda42·26·32
- ✗Excelsior 1–2 Heracles46·26·28
- ✗Twente 0–0 Telstar53·25·22
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 109 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.