FCSB
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Bologna were slight favourites.
Bologna were the stronger side on L90 Strength (56 vs 35). Absences weigh more on FCSB. FCSB had 21 days of rest, Bologna 4.2 and had to travel 1,164 km.
Away travel1,164 kmRest days21 · 4.2Matches / 14d0 · 1
FCSB29%
Draw26%
Bologna45%
FCSB31%
Draw27%
Bologna42%
FCSB31%
Draw26%
Bologna43%
FCSB23%
Draw25%
Bologna52%
FCSB30%
Draw27%
Bologna43%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Bucureşti)
No weather data yet
RefereeAndris Treimanis
- Cards per match 5.2
- Penalties per match 0.47
- Matches 32
Team strength
FCSB
Bologna
35
L90 StrengthIn forecast
56
33
Current StrengthIn forecast
47
36
AttackIn forecast
35
33
DefenceIn forecast
48
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBologna
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FCSBBologna
0.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.50
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
0.62
xGVia Att/Def
0.95
1.05
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.71
-0.12
Goals minus xGContext
-0.45
50%
Scored inContext
50%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
12.00
ShotsContext
13.00
4.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
38%
On target shareContext
39%
5.50
Shots in the boxContext
8.00
53%
Box shareContext
60%
4%
ConversionContext
4%
1.00
OffsidesContext
5.50
16.50
Shots allowedContext
12.00
8.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
1.50
BlocksContext
2.50
7.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
88%
Save rateContext
70%
39%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
326
PassesContext
398
253
Accurate passesContext
324
78%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.88
Team ratingContext
6.95
12.50
FoulsContext
15.00
12.50
Fouls sufferedContext
16.50
3.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
—
xGVia Att/Def
1.13
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.94
—
Goals minus xGContext
+0.17
80%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
10.75
ShotsContext
13.30
4.75
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.89
44%
On target shareContext
33%
—
Shots in the boxContext
8.30
—
Box shareContext
61%
14%
ConversionContext
10%
1.00
OffsidesContext
3.00
17.00
Shots allowedContext
9.20
6.75
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.44
5.33
BlocksContext
2.86
5.25
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.63
78%
Save rateContext
75%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
—
PassesContext
419
—
Accurate passesContext
347
—
Pass accuracyContext
83%
—
Team ratingContext
6.89
11.25
FoulsContext
13.40
13.75
Fouls sufferedContext
14.70
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
FCSB
Rest21 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Bologna
Rest4.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel1,164 km1,227 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| FCSB |
Bologna |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 21UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 2 Oct | 4.2Serie A 2025-2026, 19 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,164 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 1,227 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 1 / 1 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 14 | 3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
FCSB
Confirmed XI
32Ș. Târnovanu(G)
33R. Radunović
16M. Lixandru
30S. Ngezana
28A. Pantea
8A. Șut
42B. Alhassan
31Juri Cisotti
27D. Olaru
11D. Miculescu
93M. Thiam
Bologna
Confirmed XI
1Ł. Skorupski(G)
22C. Lykogiannis
26J. Lucumí
14T. Heggem
20N. Zortea
6N. Moro
8R. Freuler
11J. Rowe
21J. Odgaard
7R. Orsolini
24T. Dallinga
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences FCSB
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Bologna
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- FCSB-1.3 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Bologna+1.7 pp
Home / Away this season
FCSB · Home
0.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Bologna · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| FCSB | Bologna | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.50 | 0.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 1.50 | 1.50 | 2.83 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 0% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 50% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 50% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| FCSB | Bologna | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.50 | 1.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 0.78 | |
| Match goals | 1.50 | 2.11 | 2.83 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 56% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 33% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 22% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 33% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 33% | |
| Games | 2 | 9 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| FCSB | Bologna | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 2.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 8.00 | |
| Match total | 9.50 | 10.50 | 9.33 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 1/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 1/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.00 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 4.00 | 4.22 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 2/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 1/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| FCSB | Bologna | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 5.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.25 | 3.80 | |
| Match total | 8.25 | 9.70 | 9.33 |
| Over 8.5 | 25% 1/4 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 25% 1/4 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 1/4 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.60 | 2.60 | |
| Match total | 4.80 | 4.80 | 4.22 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Andris Treimanis 32 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.91league 4.08
Red cards0.25league 0.14
Cards 5+50%league 42%
Fouls27.1league 25.7
Penalties0.47league 0.36
Home wins56%league 42%
FCSBNo previous matches with this referee.
BolognaNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
FCSB2 games · scored 1 · conceded 2
1
1
0-15
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90
Bologna2 games · scored 1 · conceded 2
1
0-15
1
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
61-75
76-90
FCSB9 games · scored 15 · conceded 11
2
2
0-15
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
4
2
46-60
2
3
61-75
2
2
76-90
Bologna10 games · scored 13 · conceded 10
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
4
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
3
2
61-75
2
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
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