Fenerbahce
Attack—
Defense risk—
UEFA Europa League
Matchday 7 Thu, Jan 22 · 17:45
Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi, İstanbul
Our take
Aston Villa were slight favourites.
Aston Villa were the stronger side on L90 Strength (86 vs 70). Fenerbahce had 4 days of rest, Aston Villa 4.1 and had to travel 2,645 km.
Away travel2,645 kmRest days4 · 4.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
Fenerbahce30%
Draw26%
Aston Villa44%
Fenerbahce30%
Draw27%
Aston Villa44%
Fenerbahce30%
Draw26%
Aston Villa44%
Fenerbahce24%
Draw24%
Aston Villa52%
Fenerbahce30%
Draw27%
Aston Villa44%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 59%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İstanbul)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalLuís Godinho
- Cards per match 5.2
- Penalties per match 0.30
- Matches 79
Team strength
Fenerbahce
Aston Villa
70
L90 StrengthIn forecast
86
64
Current StrengthIn forecast
82
75
AttackIn forecast
83
53
DefenceIn forecast
78
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAston Villa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FenerbahceAston Villa
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.67
0.83
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.67
1.53
xGVia Att/Def
1.43
0.93
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.88
-0.03
Goals minus xGContext
+0.24
83%
Scored inContext
100%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
14.67
ShotsContext
12.33
5.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.67
39%
On target shareContext
46%
7.00
Shots in the boxContext
8.50
45%
Box shareContext
68%
10%
ConversionContext
14%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.60
10.00
Shots allowedContext
10.17
2.83
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
2.67
BlocksContext
3.60
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
92%
Save rateContext
87%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
60%
479
PassesContext
499
403
Accurate passesContext
442
84%
Pass accuracyContext
89%
6.94
Team ratingContext
6.92
9.17
FoulsContext
12.40
12.17
Fouls sufferedContext
14.67
3.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.17
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
2.03
xGVia Att/Def
1.49
0.75
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.42
+0.57
Goals minus xGContext
+0.21
90%
Scored inContext
80%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
17.60
ShotsContext
12.40
6.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.90
38%
On target shareContext
40%
9.70
Shots in the boxContext
8.30
57%
Box shareContext
67%
15%
ConversionContext
14%
2.14
OffsidesContext
1.33
9.50
Shots allowedContext
12.80
3.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.90
3.71
BlocksContext
3.70
2.88
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
82%
Save rateContext
71%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
477
PassesContext
479
411
Accurate passesContext
413
86%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
7.06
Team ratingContext
6.84
10.30
FoulsContext
9.50
11.80
Fouls sufferedContext
13.10
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Fenerbahce
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km962 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Aston Villa
Rest4.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel2,645 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Fenerbahce |
Aston Villa |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Moderate · 20 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4Süper Lig 2025-2026, 18 Jan | 4.1Premier League 2025-2026, 18 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 2,645 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 962 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 1 | 1 / 1 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3 | 2.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Fenerbahce
Confirmed XI
31Ederson(G)
27Nélson Semedo
24J. Oosterwolde
37M. Škriniar
18M. Müldür
5İ. Yüksek
7Fred
9M. Aktürkoğlu
21Marco Asensio
45D. Nene
10J. Durán
Aston Villa
Confirmed XI
40M. Bizot(G)
12L. Digne
5T. Mings
3V. Lindelöf
2M. Cash
8Y. Tielemans
26L. Bogarde
10E. Buendía
27M. Rogers
19J. Sancho
11O. Watkins
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Fenerbahce
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Aston Villa
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Fenerbahce+0.4 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Aston Villa-0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Fenerbahce · Home
2.33points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-0
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 0.67
Aston Villa · Away
2.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-1
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Fenerbahce | Aston Villa | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.83 | 0.67 | |
| Match goals | 2.33 | 2.33 | 2.91 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 17% | 0% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Fenerbahce | Aston Villa | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.60 | 1.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.90 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 3.40 | 2.91 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 80% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Fenerbahce | Aston Villa | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.33 | 4.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.33 | 2.80 | |
| Match total | 10.66 | 7.60 | 8.96 |
| Over 8.5 | 83% 5/6 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 83% 5/6 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 83% 5/6 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.67 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.33 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 6.00 | 4.00 | 4.32 |
| Over 3.5 | 83% 5/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 67% 4/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Fenerbahce | Aston Villa | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.30 | 4.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.90 | 3.80 | |
| Match total | 11.20 | 8.40 | 8.96 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.60 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 4.70 | 4.00 | 4.32 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Luís Godinho Portugal · 79 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.94league 4.09
Red cards0.24league 0.20
Cards 5+59%league 42%
Fouls29.0league 24.4
Penalties0.30league 0.35
Home wins41%league 50%
Fenerbahce1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 0.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D30 Jan 25A · FC Midtjylland2–23
Aston Villa1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.0.0 · 0.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W9 Nov 23H · AZ Alkmaar2–10
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Fenerbahce6 games · scored 9 · conceded 5
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
3
1
31-45
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
1
76-90
Aston Villa6 games · scored 10 · conceded 4
3
0-15
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
1
76-90
Fenerbahce10 games · scored 26 · conceded 9
2
3
0-15
3
2
16-30
6
31-45
4
1
46-60
5
2
61-75
6
1
76-90
Aston Villa10 games · scored 17 · conceded 13
2
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
4
3
31-45
4
5
46-60
2
2
61-75
4
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
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