Süper Lig Gameweek 15 Sun, Dec 13 · 16:00 Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi, İstanbul
Fenerbahce 3rd · 16 pts · 8 played
VS— Compare
Trabzonspor 4th · 16 pts · 8 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel904 kmRest days3.8 · 7Matches / 14d3 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Fenerbahce—%
Draw—%
Trabzonspor—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (İstanbul)

Forecast from 28 Nov

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Fenerbahce and Trabzonspor. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

FenerbahceTrabzonspor
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
62 Current StrengthIn forecast 46
75 AttackIn forecast 54
53 DefenceIn forecast 48
65 Form indexContext 78
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Fenerbahce

Attack—
Defense risk—

Trabzonspor

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

FenerbahceTrabzonspor
2.75 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.25
0.75 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.63
2.72 xGVia Att/Def 1.58
1.16 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.46
+0.03 Goals minus xGContext +0.67
88% Scored inContext 88%
63% Clean sheetsContext 50%
18.57 ShotsContext 13.25
7.71 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.63
42% On target shareContext 50%
13.43 Shots in the boxContext 10.00
70% Box shareContext 70%
17% ConversionContext 17%
2.43 OffsidesContext 2.57
13.43 Shots allowedContext 13.50
5.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.00
3.29 BlocksContext 2.86
4.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.38
79% Save rateContext 88%
53% PossessionIn forecast 53%
474 PassesContext 430
414 Accurate passesContext 365
87% Pass accuracyContext 85%
7.13 Team ratingContext 7.12
13.00 FoulsContext 10.38
9.00 Fouls sufferedContext 16.13
1.38 Yellow cardsContext 2.00
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.13
This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games
2.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.80
1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00
2.57 xGVia Att/Def 1.58
1.34 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.46
-0.17 Goals minus xGContext +0.22
80% Scored inContext 70%
50% Clean sheetsContext 40%
16.11 ShotsContext 13.25
6.56 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.63
41% On target shareContext 50%
11.33 Shots in the boxContext 10.00
69% Box shareContext 70%
17% ConversionContext 17%
2.33 OffsidesContext 2.57
14.33 Shots allowedContext 13.50
6.25 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.00
3.56 BlocksContext 3.22
4.63 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.38
74% Save rateContext 88%
49% PossessionIn forecast 52%
429 PassesContext 430
369 Accurate passesContext 365
86% Pass accuracyContext 85%
7.00 Team ratingContext 7.12
12.89 FoulsContext 10.00
11.00 Fouls sufferedContext 16.30
1.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.90
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.30
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Fenerbahce
Rest3.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km2,823 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
Form 65 · 10 pts vs 8.3 for an average club · +0.5 vs expected
  • W17 OctH · Alanyaspor3–02.3 xPts
  • L14 OctA · Aston Villa0–60.8 xPts
  • W10 OctA · Rizespor3–01.9 xPts
  • W20 SepH · Eyüpspor8–02.5 xPts
  • D14 SepA · Gazişehir Gaziantep0–01.9 xPts
Trabzonspor
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel904 km2,227 km in 14d
Schedule load17%Low
Form 78 · 12 pts vs 8.4 for an average club · +4.9 vs expected
  • W19 OctH · Besiktas2–01.3 xPts
  • W10 OctA · Samsunspor3–01.6 xPts
  • W19 SepH · Galatasaray4–00.9 xPts
  • L12 SepA · Konyaspor0–11.5 xPts
  • W6 SepH · Genclerbirligi5–01.9 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Fenerbahce Trabzonspor
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextModerate · 20Low · 17
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match3.8UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 9 Dec7Süper Lig 2026-2027, 6 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km904 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways2,823 km2,227 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 3 / 51 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one58

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Fenerbahce Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Alanyaspor (H) 3–0, 17 Oct
31Ederson(G)
22M. Mercan 15N. Aké 37M. Škriniar 27Nélson Semedo
6M. Guendouzi 91N. Kanté
70O. Aydın 11M. Greenwood 17İ. Kahveci
9R. Lukaku
Trabzonspor Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Besiktas (H) 2–0, 19 Oct
24A. Onana(G)
55Sidny Lopes Cabral 15S. Savić 27Chibuike Nwaiwu 20Wagner Pina
6Fabinho 11O. Tufan
58D. Şimşir 7E. Muçi 10Mohamed Salah
9F. Gluda Djú

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Fenerbahce Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Trabzonspor Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Fenerbahce · Home 2.25points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
3-0-1
Scored
4.00
Conceded
1.00
Trabzonspor · Away 1.00points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
1-1-2
Scored
1.25
Conceded
1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 4 this season

OpponentFenerbahceTrabzonspor
Besiktas L 1–2 H W 2–0 H
Samsunspor W 2–0 A W 3–0 A
Konyaspor W 4–2 H L 0–1 A
Genclerbirligi L 1–2 A W 5–0 H
Points6 of 12 · 1.50 per game9 of 12 · 2.25 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

5 Fenerbahce wins0 draws1 Trabzonspor wins
Goals per game2.67 – 1.67 Over 2.583% Both scored83% Clean sheets17% · 0%
  • 14 Feb 2026Trabzonspor2–3Fenerbahce
  • 14 Sep 2025Fenerbahce1–0Trabzonspor
  • 6 Apr 2025Fenerbahce4–1Trabzonspor
  • 3 Nov 2024Trabzonspor2–3Fenerbahce
  • 17 Mar 2024Trabzonspor2–3Fenerbahce
  • 4 Nov 2023Fenerbahce2–3Trabzonspor

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

FenerbahceTrabzonsporForecast
Scored per game 2.752.25
Conceded per game 0.750.63
Match goals 3.502.88
Over 1.5 88%88%
Over 2.5 75%63%
Over 3.5 25%25%
Both teams scored 38%38%
Clean sheets 63%50%
Failed to score 13%13%
Games88
FenerbahceTrabzonsporForecast
Scored per game 2.401.80
Conceded per game 1.201.00
Match goals 3.602.80
Over 1.5 90%80%
Over 2.5 70%60%
Over 3.5 30%30%
Both teams scored 40%30%
Clean sheets 50%40%
Failed to score 20%30%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

FenerbahceTrabzonsporLeague
Corners
Corners won6.295.13
Corners conceded3.143.25
Match total9.438.389.12
Over 8.557% 4/750% 4/8
Over 9.543% 3/713% 1/8
Over 10.529% 2/713% 1/8
Cards
Cards1.382.13
Opponent cards1.382.88
Match total2.765.014.04
Over 3.525% 2/875% 6/8
Over 4.525% 2/863% 5/8
FenerbahceTrabzonsporLeague
Corners
Corners won5.225.20
Corners conceded4.224.00
Match total9.449.209.12
Over 8.556% 5/960% 6/10
Over 9.544% 4/930% 3/10
Over 10.533% 3/930% 3/10
Cards
Cards1.902.30
Opponent cards1.402.90
Match total3.305.204.04
Over 3.540% 4/1080% 8/10
Over 4.530% 3/1070% 7/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Fenerbahce8 games · scored 22 · conceded 6
6 1 0-15
3 16-30
4 2 31-45
4 1 46-60
1 1 61-75
4 1 76-90
Trabzonspor8 games · scored 18 · conceded 5
5 1 0-15
3 1 16-30
5 1 31-45
2 1 46-60
1 61-75
2 1 76-90
Fenerbahce10 games · scored 24 · conceded 12
5 2 0-15
5 16-30
4 4 31-45
5 46-60
1 4 61-75
4 2 76-90
Trabzonspor10 games · scored 18 · conceded 10
5 1 0-15
3 3 16-30
5 1 31-45
2 3 46-60
1 61-75
2 2 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Süper Lig

View all fixtures →
Çorum FK Amed Dec 1117:00 Erzurumspor FK Kasimpasa Dec 1210:30 Alanyaspor Samsunspor Dec 1213:00 Eyüpspor Galatasaray Dec 1216:00 Kocaelispor Genclerbirligi Dec 1310:30 Goztepe Konyaspor Dec 1313:00 Rizespor Istanbul Basaksehir Dec 1313:00 Fenerbahce Trabzonspor Dec 1316:00 Gazişehir Gaziantep Besiktas Dec 1417:00