UEFA Champions League Matchday 6 Wed, Dec 9 · 20:00 Raiffeisen Arena, Linz
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Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel1,411 kmRest days15.1 · 4.2Matches / 14d0 · 3
Real contextStrength only
Lask Linz—%
Draw—%
Fenerbahce—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Linz)

Forecast from 24 Nov

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Lask Linz and Fenerbahce. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

Lask LinzFenerbahce
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
37 Current StrengthIn forecast 62
48 AttackIn forecast 75
34 DefenceIn forecast 53
— Form indexContext 65
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Lask Linz

Attack—
Defense risk—

Fenerbahce

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Lask LinzFenerbahce
1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.50
3.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 3.50
1.39 xGVia Att/Def —
2.54 xG allowedVia Att/Def —
+0.11 Goals minus xGContext —
50% Scored inContext 50%
0% Clean sheetsContext 0%
11.50 ShotsContext 13.00
3.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.50
30% On target shareContext 35%
7.50 Shots in the boxContext 8.00
64% Box shareContext 64%
13% ConversionContext 4%
2.00 OffsidesContext 2.00
22.00 Shots allowedContext 14.00
6.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 7.00
7.00 BlocksContext 3.00
2.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.50
31% Save rateContext 50%
44% PossessionIn forecast 49%
368 PassesContext 456
298 Accurate passesContext 397
81% Pass accuracyContext 87%
6.52 Team ratingContext 6.39
11.00 FoulsContext 9.00
5.50 Fouls sufferedContext 15.50
1.50 Yellow cardsContext 3.00
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games
2.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.40
1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20
1.72 xGVia Att/Def 2.57
1.33 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.34
+0.58 Goals minus xGContext -0.17
80% Scored inContext 80%
10% Clean sheetsContext 50%
17.10 ShotsContext 16.11
5.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.56
32% On target shareContext 41%
10.80 Shots in the boxContext 11.33
63% Box shareContext 69%
14% ConversionContext 17%
2.00 OffsidesContext 2.33
12.10 Shots allowedContext 14.33
3.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.25
3.40 BlocksContext 3.56
1.88 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.63
48% Save rateContext 74%
43% PossessionIn forecast 49%
353 PassesContext 429
280 Accurate passesContext 369
79% Pass accuracyContext 86%
6.89 Team ratingContext 7.00
11.00 FoulsContext 12.89
9.20 Fouls sufferedContext 11.00
1.40 Yellow cardsContext 1.90
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Lask Linz
Rest15.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 33 · 0 pts vs 2.0 for an average club · -2.0 vs expected
  • L14 OctH · Liverpool3–60.9 xPts
  • L8 SepA · AEK Athens FC0–11.1 xPts
Fenerbahce
Rest4.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel1,411 km2,114 km in 14d
Schedule load32%Moderate
Form 65 · 10 pts vs 8.3 for an average club · +0.5 vs expected
  • W17 OctH · Alanyaspor3–02.3 xPts
  • L14 OctA · Aston Villa0–60.8 xPts
  • W10 OctA · Rizespor3–01.9 xPts
  • W20 SepH · Eyüpspor8–02.5 xPts
  • D14 SepA · Gazişehir Gaziantep0–01.9 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Lask Linz Fenerbahce
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Moderate · 32
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match15.1UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 24 Nov4.2Süper Lig 2026-2027, 5 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km1,411 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways0 km2,114 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 0 / 11 / 3 / 4
Next matchdays after this one413.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Lask Linz Last XI · not confirmed
5-4-1 · vs Liverpool (H) 3–6, 14 Oct
1L. Jungwirth(G)
25Y. Dibango 16A. Andrade 43Alemão 4X. Mbuyamba 20Kasper Jørgensen
27C. Lang 18A. Schöpf 6M. Bogarde 9K. Daněk
7S. Adeniran
Fenerbahce Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Alanyaspor (H) 3–0, 17 Oct
31Ederson(G)
22M. Mercan 15N. Aké 37M. Škriniar 27Nélson Semedo
6M. Guendouzi 91N. Kanté
70O. Aydın 11M. Greenwood 17İ. Kahveci
9R. Lukaku

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Lask Linz Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Fenerbahce Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Lask Linz · Home 0.00points per game · 1 home games
W-D-L
0-0-1
Scored
3.00
Conceded
6.00
Fenerbahce · Away 0.00points per game · 1 away games
W-D-L
0-0-1
Scored
0.00
Conceded
6.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goal timing

Lask Linz2 games · scored 3 · conceded 7
0-15
3 16-30
1 31-45
1 46-60
2 2 61-75
1 76-90
Fenerbahce2 games · scored 1 · conceded 7
1 0-15
16-30
3 31-45
1 46-60
2 61-75
1 76-90
Lask Linz10 games · scored 23 · conceded 16
1 2 0-15
1 5 16-30
4 2 31-45
6 2 46-60
5 3 61-75
6 2 76-90
Fenerbahce10 games · scored 24 · conceded 12
5 2 0-15
5 16-30
4 4 31-45
5 46-60
1 4 61-75
4 2 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

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