Feyenoord
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Feyenoord were clear favourites.
Feyenoord were the stronger side on L90 Strength (63 vs 14). Feyenoord had 6.2 days of rest, FC Volendam 7 and had to travel 75 km.
Away travel75 kmRest days6.2 · 7Matches / 14d3 · 1
Feyenoord79%
Draw14%
FC Volendam7%
Feyenoord77%
Draw15%
FC Volendam7%
Feyenoord79%
Draw14%
FC Volendam7%
Feyenoord73%
Draw17%
FC Volendam10%
Feyenoord78%
Draw15%
FC Volendam7%
Over 2.5 67%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Rotterdam)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsMarc Nagtegaal
- Cards per match 2.7
- Penalties per match 0.22
- Matches 37
Team strength
Feyenoord
FC Volendam
63
L90 StrengthIn forecast
14
59
Current StrengthIn forecast
14
76
AttackIn forecast
14
61
DefenceIn forecast
19
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFC Volendam
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FeyenoordFC Volendam
2.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.97
xGVia Att/Def
0.98
0.66
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.36
+0.73
Goals minus xGContext
+0.32
100%
Scored inContext
80%
60%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
16.80
ShotsContext
10.70
6.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.80
41%
On target shareContext
36%
12.20
Shots in the boxContext
6.90
74%
Box shareContext
64%
16%
ConversionContext
12%
2.33
OffsidesContext
1.44
8.10
Shots allowedContext
16.20
3.29
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.20
2.67
BlocksContext
4.50
2.14
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.90
65%
Save rateContext
75%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
435
PassesContext
361
364
Accurate passesContext
290
84%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
7.10
Team ratingContext
6.82
9.50
FoulsContext
9.40
10.40
Fouls sufferedContext
13.30
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.30
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.56
xGVia Att/Def
0.98
0.70
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.36
+0.64
Goals minus xGContext
+0.32
80%
Scored inContext
80%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
14.90
ShotsContext
10.70
6.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.80
42%
On target shareContext
36%
10.30
Shots in the boxContext
6.90
69%
Box shareContext
64%
15%
ConversionContext
12%
2.86
OffsidesContext
1.44
8.40
Shots allowedContext
16.20
3.63
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.20
2.88
BlocksContext
4.50
2.25
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.90
62%
Save rateContext
75%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
419
PassesContext
361
350
Accurate passesContext
290
83%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.97
Team ratingContext
6.82
11.60
FoulsContext
9.40
9.80
Fouls sufferedContext
13.30
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.30
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Feyenoord
Rest6.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km313 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
FC Volendam
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel75 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Feyenoord |
FC Volendam |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 15 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.2Eredivisie 2025-2026, 26 Oct | 7Eredivisie 2025-2026, 25 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 75 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 313 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 4 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5 | 6.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Feyenoord
Confirmed XI
22T. Wellenreuther(G)
5G. Smal
4T. Watanabe
21A. Ahmedhodžić
26G. Read
8Q. Timber
40L. Valente
16L. Sauer
14S. Steijn
23A. Hadj Moussa
9A. Ueda
FC Volendam
Confirmed XI
1K. van Oevelen(G)
32Y. Leliendal
20N. Verschuren
3M. Amevor
2D. Payne
8G. Yah
28S. Esajas
11A. Oehlers
18N. Bukala
10B. Kuwas
9H. Veerman
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Feyenoord
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
FC Volendam
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.08 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Feyenoord+0.6 pp
- Draw-0.5 pp
- FC Volendam-0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Feyenoord · Home
2.40points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-0-1
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
FC Volendam · Away
0.40points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-3
- Scored
- 0.80
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 6 this season
| Opponent | Feyenoord | FC Volendam |
|---|---|---|
| Heracles | W 7–0 A | W 3–0 H |
| Utrecht | W 3–2 H | L 1–3 A |
| AZ Alkmaar | D 3–3 A | D 2–2 H |
| Fortuna Sittard | W 2–0 H | L 0–1 A |
| Heerenveen | W 1–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Excelsior | W 2–1 A | L 1–2 H |
| Points | 16 of 18 · 2.67 per game | 5 of 18 · 0.83 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
1 Feyenoord wins0 draws0 FC Volendam wins
Goals per game3.00 – 1.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 7 Dec 2023Feyenoord3–1FC Volendam
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Feyenoord | FC Volendam | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.70 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.90 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 3.60 | 2.90 | 3.47 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 70% | 67% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Feyenoord | FC Volendam | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.20 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 3.40 | 2.90 | 3.47 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 70% | 67% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Feyenoord | FC Volendam | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.78 | 4.11 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.33 | 5.67 | |
| Match total | 10.11 | 9.78 | 9.83 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 1.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 3.10 | 3.40 | 3.61 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Feyenoord | FC Volendam | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.22 | 4.11 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.33 | 5.67 | |
| Match total | 9.55 | 9.78 | 9.83 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 1.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 3.40 | 3.61 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Marc Nagtegaal Netherlands · 37 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.57league 3.40
Red cards0.11league 0.19
Cards 5+24%league 33%
Fouls19.4league 22.3
Penalties0.22league 0.24
Home wins54%league 48%
Feyenoord3 with this referee
Record3-0-0
Cards · opp.0.0 · 1.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W14 May 25H · Waalwijk2–00
- W2 Apr 25H · Groningen4–10
- W10 Nov 24A · Almere City FC4–10
FC Volendam2 with this referee
Record0-1-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L20 Sep 25H · Excelsior1–23
- D9 Aug 25A · Heerenveen1–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Feyenoord10 games · scored 27 · conceded 9
2
1
0-15
4
2
16-30
6
31-45
8
4
46-60
3
61-75
4
2
76-90
FC Volendam10 games · scored 13 · conceded 16
1
5
0-15
2
1
16-30
3
4
31-45
2
2
46-60
4
2
61-75
1
2
76-90
Feyenoord10 games · scored 22 · conceded 12
1
0-15
2
3
16-30
6
31-45
7
4
46-60
2
1
61-75
4
4
76-90
FC Volendam10 games · scored 13 · conceded 16
1
5
0-15
2
1
16-30
3
4
31-45
2
2
46-60
4
2
61-75
1
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
