Feyenoord
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Feyenoord were clear favourites.
Feyenoord were the stronger side on L90 Strength (60 vs 32). Absences weigh more on Feyenoord. Feyenoord had 13.8 days of rest, NEC Nijmegen 14 and had to travel 95 km.
Away travel95 kmRest days13.8 · 14Matches / 14d1 · 1
Feyenoord62%
Draw21%
NEC Nijmegen17%
Feyenoord61%
Draw22%
NEC Nijmegen16%
Feyenoord62%
Draw21%
NEC Nijmegen16%
Feyenoord54%
Draw24%
NEC Nijmegen22%
Feyenoord61%
Draw22%
NEC Nijmegen17%
Over 2.5 60%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Rotterdam)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsBas Nijhuis
- Cards per match 2.4
- Penalties per match 0.28
- Matches 43
Team strength
Feyenoord
NEC Nijmegen
60
L90 StrengthIn forecast
32
59
Current StrengthIn forecast
30
76
AttackIn forecast
37
61
DefenceIn forecast
33
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisNEC Nijmegen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FeyenoordNEC Nijmegen
2.58
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.42
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.67
2.15
xGVia Att/Def
1.76
0.76
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.36
+0.43
Goals minus xGContext
+0.66
100%
Scored inContext
92%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
18.67
ShotsContext
15.17
7.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.33
38%
On target shareContext
42%
12.83
Shots in the boxContext
9.17
72%
Box shareContext
60%
14%
ConversionContext
16%
2.25
OffsidesContext
2.40
8.25
Shots allowedContext
10.50
3.22
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.08
2.45
BlocksContext
1.92
2.25
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.55
64%
Save rateContext
67%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
442
PassesContext
437
371
Accurate passesContext
351
84%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
7.08
Team ratingContext
6.98
9.08
FoulsContext
11.83
9.92
Fouls sufferedContext
12.83
1.42
Yellow cardsContext
1.58
0.08
Red cardsContext
0.08
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.90
1.80
xGVia Att/Def
1.56
0.88
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.42
+0.20
Goals minus xGContext
+0.44
70%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
17.00
ShotsContext
14.20
6.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.50
39%
On target shareContext
39%
10.90
Shots in the boxContext
8.10
64%
Box shareContext
57%
12%
ConversionContext
14%
2.25
OffsidesContext
2.25
8.90
Shots allowedContext
10.40
3.89
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.90
2.22
BlocksContext
2.00
2.75
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.11
65%
Save rateContext
61%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
434
PassesContext
412
365
Accurate passesContext
325
84%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.93
Team ratingContext
6.88
12.10
FoulsContext
11.70
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
13.10
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Feyenoord
Rest13.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km242 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
NEC Nijmegen
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel95 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Feyenoord |
NEC Nijmegen |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 13.8Eredivisie 2025-2026, 9 Nov | 14Eredivisie 2025-2026, 9 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 95 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 242 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 4 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.2 | 6.3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Feyenoord
Confirmed XI
22T. Wellenreuther(G)
5G. Smal
4T. Watanabe
21A. Ahmedhodžić
2B. Nieuwkoop
8Q. Timber
40L. Valente
16L. Sauer
14S. Steijn
23A. Hadj Moussa
9A. Ueda
NEC Nijmegen
Confirmed XI
1G. Crettaz(G)
4A. Kaplan
3P. Sandler
14E. Dasa
11B. Önal
6D. Nejašmić
23K. Sano
25S. Ouaissa
30B. Linssen
10T. Chery
18K. Ogawa
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Feyenoord
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
NEC Nijmegen
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Feyenoord-0.5 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- NEC Nijmegen+0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Feyenoord · Home
2.50points per game · 6 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-0-1
- Scored
- 2.17
- Conceded
- 1.00
NEC Nijmegen · Away
0.83points per game · 6 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-3
- Scored
- 1.83
- Conceded
- 1.83
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 10 this season
| Opponent | Feyenoord | NEC Nijmegen |
|---|---|---|
| GO Ahead Eagles | L 1–2 A | D 1–1 A |
| PSV Eindhoven | L 2–3 H | L 3–5 H |
| Heracles | W 7–0 A | W 4–1 A |
| Utrecht | W 3–2 H | L 0–1 A |
| Groningen | W 1–0 A | W 2–0 H |
| AZ Alkmaar | D 3–3 A | W 2–1 H |
| Fortuna Sittard | W 2–0 H | L 2–3 A |
| Heerenveen | W 1–0 H | L 2–3 A |
| Excelsior | W 2–1 A | W 5–0 H |
| NAC Breda | W 2–0 H | W 3–0 H |
| Points | 22 of 30 · 2.20 per game | 16 of 30 · 1.60 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
0 Feyenoord wins3 draws0 NEC Nijmegen wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.00
Over 2.533%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets33% · 33%
- 1 Mar 2025Feyenoord0–0NEC Nijmegen
- 28 Sep 2024NEC Nijmegen1–1Feyenoord
- 14 Jan 2024Feyenoord2–2NEC Nijmegen
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Feyenoord | NEC Nijmegen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.58 | 2.42 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.67 | |
| Match goals | 3.58 | 4.08 | 3.10 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 92% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 75% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 58% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 67% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 8% | |
| Games | 12 | 12 |
| Feyenoord | NEC Nijmegen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.90 | |
| Match goals | 3.40 | 3.90 | 3.10 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 70% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Feyenoord | NEC Nijmegen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.09 | 5.17 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.18 | 3.75 | |
| Match total | 10.27 | 8.92 | 9.96 |
| Over 8.5 | 73% 8/11 | 58% 7/12 | |
| Over 9.5 | 64% 7/11 | 42% 5/12 | |
| Over 10.5 | 45% 5/11 | 33% 4/12 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 1.75 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.33 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 2.83 | 4.25 | 3.52 |
| Over 3.5 | 33% 4/12 | 58% 7/12 | |
| Over 4.5 | 17% 2/12 | 58% 7/12 | |
| Feyenoord | NEC Nijmegen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.10 | 4.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.00 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 9.10 | 8.80 | 9.96 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 2.60 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 4.40 | 3.52 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Bas Nijhuis Netherlands · 43 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.30league 3.29
Red cards0.07league 0.22
Cards 5+12%league 31%
Fouls16.9league 21.9
Penalties0.28league 0.28
Home wins56%league 49%
Feyenoord8 with this referee
Record6-1-1
Cards · opp.0.6 · 0.9
Pens for · against3 · 0
- W28 Sep 25A · Groningen1–02
- W30 Mar 25H · GO Ahead Eagles3–21
- L12 Jan 25H · Utrecht1–20
- W7 Dec 24A · Waalwijk3–20
- D28 Sep 24A · NEC Nijmegen1–11
NEC Nijmegen4 with this referee
Record1-2-1
Cards · opp.0.8 · 2.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W24 Aug 25H · NAC Breda3–02
- L24 Nov 24H · Utrecht1–20
- D28 Sep 24H · Feyenoord1–11
- D18 Feb 24A · Ajax2–20
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Feyenoord12 games · scored 31 · conceded 12
2
2
0-15
6
2
16-30
6
31-45
8
5
46-60
3
61-75
6
3
76-90
NEC Nijmegen12 games · scored 29 · conceded 20
3
3
0-15
3
3
16-30
3
4
31-45
6
5
46-60
7
2
61-75
7
3
76-90
Feyenoord10 games · scored 20 · conceded 14
1
1
0-15
4
2
16-30
3
31-45
6
4
46-60
1
1
61-75
5
6
76-90
NEC Nijmegen10 games · scored 20 · conceded 19
2
2
0-15
3
3
16-30
2
4
31-45
4
5
46-60
5
2
61-75
4
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
