Feyenoord
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Feyenoord61.7%fair odds 1.62
Draw21.4%fair odds 4.67
NEC Nijmegen16.9%fair odds 5.92
Expected goals2.09 – 1.01total 3.10
Likeliest score1–110.0%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
NEC Nijmegen
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Feyenoord ↓ · NEC Nijmegen → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 10.0 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Feyenoord goals, columns NEC Nijmegen goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–110.0%9.98
- 2–19.9%10.06
- 2–09.9%10.14
- 1–08.9%11.18
- 3–16.9%14.46
- 3–06.9%14.56
- 0–05.0%19.88
- 2–25.0%19.98
- 1–24.8%20.86
- 0–14.1%24.66
Winning margin
19.8%
Feyenoord by 3+
fair 5.05
18.9%
Feyenoord by 2
fair 5.30
23.0%
Feyenoord by 1
fair 4.34
21.4%
Draw
fair 4.67
10.9%
NEC Nijmegen by 1
fair 9.21
4.4%
NEC Nijmegen by 2
fair 22.76
1.6%
NEC Nijmegen by 3+
fair 61.37
Goal distribution
Total goals
5%0
13%1
22%2
22%3
17%4
20%5+
Feyenoord goals
12%0
26%1
27%2
19%3
16%4+
NEC Nijmegen goals
37%0
37%1
19%2
6%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord win | 61.7% | 60.7% | +1.0 pp |
| Draw | 21.4% | 22.4% | -1.0 pp |
| NEC Nijmegen win | 16.9% | 16.9% | +0.0 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 59.8% | 55.4% | +4.4 pp |
| Both teams score | 56.1% | 52.9% | +3.3 pp |
| Expected goals Feyenoord | 2.09 | 1.96 | +0.13 |
| Expected goals NEC Nijmegen | 1.01 | 0.94 | +0.07 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Feyenoord win61.7%1.62
- Draw21.4%4.67
- NEC Nijmegen win16.9%5.92
- Double chance Feyenoord or draw83.1%1.20
- Double chance Feyenoord or NEC Nijmegen78.6%1.27
- Double chance NEC Nijmegen or draw38.3%2.61
- Draw no bet Feyenoord78.5%1.27
- Draw no bet NEC Nijmegen21.5%4.66
Goals
- Over 0.595.0%1.05
- Over 1.582.0%1.22
- Over 2.559.8%1.67
- Over 3.537.4%2.67
- Over 4.520.1%4.98
- Under 1.518.0%5.55
- Under 2.540.2%2.49
- Under 3.562.6%1.60
Both teams to score
- Yes56.1%1.78
- No43.9%2.28
- Yes and over 2.546.1%2.17
- Feyenoord win and yes30.2%3.31
- Draw and yes16.4%6.11
- NEC Nijmegen win and yes9.5%10.51
Team goals
- Feyenoord over 0.587.6%1.14
- Feyenoord over 1.561.7%1.62
- Feyenoord over 2.534.7%2.88
- NEC Nijmegen over 0.563.5%1.58
- NEC Nijmegen over 1.526.7%3.75
- NEC Nijmegen over 2.58.2%12.25
- Feyenoord clean sheet36.5%2.74
- NEC Nijmegen clean sheet12.4%8.07
- Feyenoord win to nil31.5%3.18
- NEC Nijmegen win to nil7.4%13.58
Handicap
- Feyenoord −1.538.7%2.59
- Feyenoord −2.519.8%5.05
- NEC Nijmegen +1.561.3%1.63
- NEC Nijmegen +2.580.2%1.25
- NEC Nijmegen −1.56.0%16.60
- Feyenoord +1.594.0%1.06
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Eredivisie 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored114
Favourite won51.8%
Avg chance given to result42.1%
1X2 Brier0.567
Over 2.5 called right67.5%
BTTS called right61.4%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 19 | 38.1% | 26.3% |
| 40–50% | 40 | 44.6% | 42.5% |
| 50–60% | 28 | 55.3% | 53.6% |
| 60–70% | 15 | 64.1% | 73.3% |
| 70–80% | 9 | 75.5% | 88.9% |
| 80%+ | 3 | 81.7% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 91 of 114 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5697 | 0.5509 |
| Avg chance given to result | 41.8% | 43.8% |
| Favourite won | 50.5% | 54.9% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 91 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 114 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.