Feyenoord
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Feyenoord were slight favourites.
Feyenoord were the stronger side on L90 Strength (64 vs 42). Feyenoord had 4.2 days of rest, Panathinaikos 21.1 and had to travel 2,154 km.
Away travel2,154 kmRest days4.2 · 21.1Matches / 14d1 · 0
Feyenoord58%
Draw23%
Panathinaikos19%
Feyenoord57%
Draw24%
Panathinaikos19%
Feyenoord58%
Draw23%
Panathinaikos19%
Feyenoord50%
Draw25%
Panathinaikos25%
Feyenoord57%
Draw23%
Panathinaikos19%
Over 2.5 58%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Rotterdam)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyHarm Osmers
- Cards per match 4.2
- Penalties per match 0.30
- Matches 87
Team strength
Feyenoord
Panathinaikos
64
L90 StrengthIn forecast
42
59
Current StrengthIn forecast
49
76
AttackIn forecast
48
61
DefenceIn forecast
50
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisPanathinaikos
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FeyenoordPanathinaikos
0.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.50
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
0.80
xGVia Att/Def
1.77
0.67
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.08
-0.80
Goals minus xGContext
+0.73
0%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
11.50
ShotsContext
25.00
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.50
35%
On target shareContext
30%
7.00
Shots in the boxContext
14.00
53%
Box shareContext
56%
0%
ConversionContext
10%
3.00
OffsidesContext
—
7.00
Shots allowedContext
13.00
2.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.50
—
BlocksContext
3.50
1.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.00
40%
Save rateContext
57%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
394
PassesContext
459
329
Accurate passesContext
400
84%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.58
Team ratingContext
7.06
15.50
FoulsContext
7.00
10.00
Fouls sufferedContext
12.50
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
0.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
1.79
xGVia Att/Def
—
0.64
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
+0.51
Goals minus xGContext
—
80%
Scored inContext
90%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
16.00
ShotsContext
15.00
6.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.60
42%
On target shareContext
31%
11.70
Shots in the boxContext
10.13
72%
Box shareContext
61%
14%
ConversionContext
10%
2.71
OffsidesContext
3.33
7.80
Shots allowedContext
9.40
2.88
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.78
2.38
BlocksContext
2.70
1.88
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.86
65%
Save rateContext
57%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
426
PassesContext
513
358
Accurate passesContext
444
84%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
7.02
Team ratingContext
6.96
10.90
FoulsContext
13.20
9.80
Fouls sufferedContext
14.70
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Feyenoord
Rest4.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km313 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Panathinaikos
Rest21.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel2,154 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Feyenoord |
Panathinaikos |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Moderate · 20 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4.2Eredivisie 2025-2026, 19 Oct | 21.1UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 2 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 2,154 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 313 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 4 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 2.8 | 13.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Feyenoord
Confirmed XI
22T. Wellenreuther(G)
15J. Bos
5G. Smal
21A. Ahmedhodžić
26G. Read
40L. Valente
14S. Steijn
6I. Hwang
32Aymen Sliti
9A. Ueda
23A. Hadj Moussa
Panathinaikos
Confirmed XI
69B. Drągowski(G)
77G. Kyriakopoulos
5A. Touba
15S. Ingason
27G. Kotsiras
16A. Gnezda Čerin
6E. Siopis
2D. Calabria
31F. Đuričić
19K. Świderski
10Tetê
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Feyenoord
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Panathinaikos
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Feyenoord+0.2 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Panathinaikos+0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Feyenoord · Home
0.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Panathinaikos · Away
3.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 4.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Feyenoord | Panathinaikos | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.00 | 2.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 1.50 | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 100% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 100% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 100% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Feyenoord | Panathinaikos | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.30 | 2.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.90 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.20 | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 100% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 100% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 2 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Feyenoord | Panathinaikos | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 8.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 6.00 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 14.50 | 8.98 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 2/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 0.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 1.50 | 4.20 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 1/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 1/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Feyenoord | Panathinaikos | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.33 | 5.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.22 | 3.90 | |
| Match total | 10.55 | 9.40 | 8.98 |
| Over 8.5 | 89% 8/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 4.10 | 4.20 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Harm Osmers Germany · 87 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.99league 4.09
Red cards0.18league 0.11
Cards 5+40%league 39%
Fouls22.3league 25.2
Penalties0.30league 0.36
Home wins51%league 45%
FeyenoordNo previous matches with this referee.
Panathinaikos2 with this referee
Record0-0-2
Cards · opp.1.5 · 2.5
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L27 Apr 25A · PAOK1–22
- L9 Feb 25A · Aris Thessalonikis0–21
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Feyenoord2 games · scored 0 · conceded 3
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
2
76-90
Panathinaikos2 games · scored 5 · conceded 3
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
76-90
Feyenoord10 games · scored 23 · conceded 9
1
1
0-15
4
1
16-30
6
31-45
6
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
4
4
76-90
Panathinaikos10 games · scored 15 · conceded 11
5
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
31-45
5
1
46-60
3
2
61-75
1
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
Next fixtures UEFA Europa League
View all fixtures →
Lyon
FC Basel 1893
20
SC Braga
FK Crvena Zvezda
20
Brann
Rangers
30
GO Ahead Eagles
Aston Villa
21
FCSB
Bologna
12
Red Bull Salzburg
Ferencvarosi TC
23
Fenerbahce
VfB Stuttgart
10
Genk
Real Betis
00
Feyenoord
Panathinaikos
31
Nottingham Forest
FC Porto
20
Lille
PAOK
34
SC Freiburg
Utrecht
20
Celtic
Sturm Graz
21
Malmo FF
Dinamo Zagreb
11
AS Roma
Plzen
12
Celta Vigo
Nice
21
BSC Young Boys
Ludogorets
32
Maccabi Tel Aviv
FC Midtjylland
03