Fiorentina
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Fiorentina were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Fiorentina had 6.9 days of rest, Bologna 3 and had to travel 80 km.
Away travel80 kmRest days6.9 · 3Matches / 14d1 · 2
Fiorentina40%
Draw28%
Bologna32%
Fiorentina41%
Draw27%
Bologna32%
Fiorentina40%
Draw28%
Bologna32%
Fiorentina33%
Draw28%
Bologna38%
Fiorentina41%
Draw27%
Bologna32%
Over 2.5 46%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Firenze)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyFederico La Penna
- Cards per match 4.3
- Penalties per match 0.28
- Matches 39
Team strength
Fiorentina
Bologna
53
L90 StrengthIn forecast
58
39
Current StrengthIn forecast
47
42
AttackIn forecast
35
34
DefenceIn forecast
48
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBologna
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FiorentinaBologna
0.71
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.57
1.43
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.71
1.09
xGVia Att/Def
1.25
1.63
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.69
-0.38
Goals minus xGContext
+0.32
71%
Scored inContext
71%
29%
Clean sheetsContext
43%
10.71
ShotsContext
13.14
2.14
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.83
20%
On target shareContext
32%
6.00
Shots in the boxContext
8.43
52%
Box shareContext
63%
7%
ConversionContext
12%
2.50
OffsidesContext
2.14
12.43
Shots allowedContext
9.00
4.86
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.00
2.29
BlocksContext
3.00
3.29
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.33
68%
Save rateContext
78%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
380
PassesContext
428
311
Accurate passesContext
356
82%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.70
Team ratingContext
6.89
13.43
FoulsContext
13.00
16.86
Fouls sufferedContext
13.00
1.71
Yellow cardsContext
1.86
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
1.20
xGVia Att/Def
1.23
1.36
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.88
+0.10
Goals minus xGContext
+0.17
80%
Scored inContext
70%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
11.90
ShotsContext
13.90
3.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.11
26%
On target shareContext
33%
7.60
Shots in the boxContext
8.80
60%
Box shareContext
62%
11%
ConversionContext
10%
2.89
OffsidesContext
2.70
11.20
Shots allowedContext
9.60
4.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.78
2.33
BlocksContext
2.86
3.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.89
72%
Save rateContext
77%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
411
PassesContext
419
341
Accurate passesContext
346
83%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.90
13.00
FoulsContext
14.00
16.50
Fouls sufferedContext
14.00
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Fiorentina
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km496 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Bologna
Rest3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel80 km3,555 km in 14d
Schedule load18%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Fiorentina |
Bologna |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 18 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9Serie A 2025-2026, 19 Oct | 3UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 23 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 80 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 496 km | 3,555 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 2 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3.1 | 3.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Fiorentina
Confirmed XI
43David de Gea(G)
6L. Ranieri
18Pablo Marí
5M. Pongračić
21R. Gosens
44N. Fagioli
14H. Nicolussi
8R. Mandragora
2Dodô
10A. Guðmundsson
20M. Kean
Bologna
Confirmed XI
1Ł. Skorupski(G)
33Juan Miranda
26J. Lucumí
14T. Heggem
2E. Holm
19L. Ferguson
8R. Freuler
28N. Cambiaghi
80G. Fabbian
7R. Orsolini
9S. Castro
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Fiorentina
Absences are shown before kick-off
Bologna
Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Fiorentina+0.3 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Bologna-0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Fiorentina · Home
0.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-3
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.33
Bologna · Away
1.00points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-2
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 5 this season
| Opponent | Fiorentina | Bologna |
|---|---|---|
| AC Milan | L 1–2 A | L 0–1 A |
| AS Roma | L 1–2 H | L 0–1 A |
| Pisa | D 0–0 A | W 4–0 H |
| Como | L 1–2 H | W 1–0 H |
| Cagliari | D 1–1 A | W 2–0 A |
| Points | 2 of 15 · 0.40 per game | 9 of 15 · 1.80 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
4 Fiorentina wins0 draws4 Bologna wins
Goals per game1.38 – 1.50
Over 2.563%
Both scored63%
Clean sheets13% · 25%
- 18 May 2025Fiorentina3–2Bologna
- 15 Dec 2024Bologna1–0Fiorentina
- 14 Feb 2024Bologna2–0Fiorentina
- 12 Nov 2023Fiorentina2–1Bologna
- 5 Feb 2023Fiorentina1–2Bologna
- 11 Sep 2022Bologna2–1Fiorentina
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Fiorentina | Bologna | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.71 | 1.57 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.43 | 0.71 | |
| Match goals | 2.14 | 2.29 | 2.52 |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 57% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 43% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 14% | 29% | |
| Both teams scored | 71% | 29% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 43% | |
| Failed to score | 29% | 29% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Fiorentina | Bologna | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.71 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.43 | 0.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.14 | 2.20 | 2.52 |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 40% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 14% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 71% | 40% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 29% | 30% | |
| Games | 7 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Fiorentina | Bologna | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.86 | 5.86 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.29 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 8.15 | 8.86 | 9.04 |
| Over 8.5 | 43% 3/7 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 43% 3/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 14% 1/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.71 | 1.86 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.86 | 2.86 | |
| Match total | 3.57 | 4.72 | 3.93 |
| Over 3.5 | 57% 4/7 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 43% 3/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Fiorentina | Bologna | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.22 | 5.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.67 | 4.10 | |
| Match total | 7.89 | 9.70 | 9.04 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 3/9 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 11% 1/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 2.80 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 5.00 | 3.93 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Federico La Penna Italy · 39 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.23league 3.85
Red cards0.08league 0.12
Cards 5+38%league 37%
Fouls25.5league 25.8
Penalties0.28league 0.26
Home wins36%league 37%
Fiorentina7 with this referee
Record5-0-2
Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.3
Pens for · against1 · 1
- L10 Feb 25A · Inter1–23
- W3 Nov 24A · Torino1–01
- L7 Apr 24A · Juventus0–11
- W29 Dec 23H · Torino1–04
- W8 Oct 23A · Napoli3–14
Bologna6 with this referee
Record2-3-1
Cards · opp.1.7 · 3.7
Pens for · against2 · 0
- D25 Jan 25A · Empoli1–10
- D13 Apr 24H · Monza0–04
- W3 Mar 24A · Atalanta2–12
- W3 Nov 23H · Lazio1–02
- D18 Sep 23A · Verona0–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Fiorentina6 games · scored 4 · conceded 8
1
2
0-15
2
16-30
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
2
76-90
Bologna7 games · scored 11 · conceded 5
1
0-15
1
16-30
4
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
2
1
76-90
Fiorentina9 games · scored 12 · conceded 10
2
4
0-15
1
2
16-30
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
6
2
76-90
Bologna10 games · scored 14 · conceded 8
2
2
0-15
2
16-30
4
31-45
2
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
2
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
