Fiorentina
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Fiorentina were slight favourites.
Lazio were the stronger side on L90 Strength (53 vs 45). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Fiorentina. Fiorentina had 9.1 days of rest, Lazio 9 and had to travel 234 km.
Away travel234 kmRest days9.1 · 9Matches / 14d1 · 1
Fiorentina40%
Draw29%
Lazio31%
Fiorentina39%
Draw27%
Lazio34%
Fiorentina39%
Draw29%
Lazio32%
Fiorentina33%
Draw29%
Lazio38%
Fiorentina41%
Draw28%
Lazio32%
Over 2.5 42%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Firenze)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyMichael Fabbri
- Cards per match 4.4
- Penalties per match 0.16
- Matches 70
Team strength
Fiorentina
Lazio
45
L90 StrengthIn forecast
53
39
Current StrengthIn forecast
62
42
AttackIn forecast
53
34
DefenceIn forecast
63
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLazio
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FiorentinaLazio
1.16
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.03
1.42
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.94
1.44
xGVia Att/Def
0.99
1.31
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.23
-0.28
Goals minus xGContext
+0.04
74%
Scored inContext
55%
19%
Clean sheetsContext
45%
13.19
ShotsContext
10.71
3.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.93
27%
On target shareContext
36%
8.32
Shots in the boxContext
6.53
61%
Box shareContext
58%
9%
ConversionContext
10%
2.36
OffsidesContext
1.59
12.68
Shots allowedContext
13.00
4.72
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.13
3.29
BlocksContext
3.48
3.07
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.23
67%
Save rateContext
78%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
428
PassesContext
481
364
Accurate passesContext
415
85%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.87
12.00
FoulsContext
9.97
16.00
Fouls sufferedContext
14.77
2.23
Yellow cardsContext
1.94
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.16
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.28
xGVia Att/Def
1.05
1.23
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.06
+0.02
Goals minus xGContext
+0.05
70%
Scored inContext
60%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
13.90
ShotsContext
10.10
4.56
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.30
30%
On target shareContext
33%
7.90
Shots in the boxContext
6.20
56%
Box shareContext
62%
9%
ConversionContext
11%
2.25
OffsidesContext
1.86
11.30
Shots allowedContext
13.90
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
2.78
BlocksContext
4.80
3.25
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.90
67%
Save rateContext
73%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
463
PassesContext
509
393
Accurate passesContext
446
85%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.87
12.10
FoulsContext
8.10
15.30
Fouls sufferedContext
12.00
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Fiorentina
Rest9.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km371 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Lazio
Rest9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel234 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Fiorentina |
Lazio |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 9.1Serie A 2025-2026, 4 Apr | 9Serie A 2025-2026, 4 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 234 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 371 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 4.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Fiorentina
Confirmed XI
43David de Gea(G)
21R. Gosens
6L. Ranieri
3D. Rugani
2Dodô
27C. Ndour
8R. Mandragora
80G. Fabbian
22J. Fazzini
91R. Piccoli
17J. Harrison
Lazio
Confirmed XI
40E. Motta(G)
17Nuno Tavares
25Oliver Provstgaard
13A. Romagnoli
29M. Lazzari
24K. Taylor
4Patric
26T. Bašić
10M. Zaccagni
19B. Dia
22M. Cancellieri
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Fiorentina
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Lazio
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Fiorentina+1.1 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Lazio-0.7 pp
Home / Away this season
Fiorentina · Home
1.00points per game · 15 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-6-6
- Scored
- 1.27
- Conceded
- 1.33
Lazio · Away
1.20points per game · 15 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-6-5
- Scored
- 0.67
- Conceded
- 0.73
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Fiorentina | Lazio |
|---|---|---|
| Verona | W 1–0 AL 1–2 H | W 1–0 AW 4–0 H |
| Inter | D 1–1 HL 0–3 A | L 0–2 A |
| Cremonese | W 4–1 AW 1–0 H | D 0–0 H |
| Parma | D 0–0 HL 0–1 A | D 1–1 HW 1–0 A |
| Udinese | L 0–3 AW 5–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Pisa | W 1–0 HD 0–0 A | D 0–0 A |
| Como | W 2–1 AL 1–2 H | L 0–3 HL 0–2 A |
| Torino | D 2–2 HD 0–0 A | L 0–2 AD 3–3 H |
| Napoli | L 1–2 AL 1–3 H | L 0–2 H |
| Cagliari | L 1–2 HD 1–1 A | D 0–0 AW 2–0 H |
| Bologna | W 2–1 AD 2–2 H | W 2–0 AD 1–1 H |
| AC Milan | D 1–1 HL 1–2 A | W 1–0 HL 0–1 A |
| Sassuolo | L 1–3 A | W 2–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Atalanta | L 0–2 A | L 0–2 HD 0–0 A |
| Juventus | D 1–1 H | D 2–2 AW 1–0 H |
| Genoa | D 2–2 A | W 3–2 HW 3–0 A |
| Lecce | L 0–1 H | D 0–0 AW 2–0 H |
| AS Roma | L 1–2 H | L 0–1 H |
| Points | 31 of 90 · 1.03 per game | 43 of 90 · 1.43 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
3 Fiorentina wins2 draws4 Lazio wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.67
Over 2.567%
Both scored56%
Clean sheets0% · 44%
- 7 Jan 2026Lazio2–2Fiorentina
- 26 Jan 2025Lazio1–2Fiorentina
- 22 Sep 2024Fiorentina2–1Lazio
- 26 Feb 2024Fiorentina2–1Lazio
- 30 Oct 2023Lazio1–0Fiorentina
- 29 Jan 2023Lazio1–1Fiorentina
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Fiorentina | Lazio | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.16 | 1.03 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.42 | 0.94 | |
| Match goals | 2.58 | 1.97 | 2.37 |
| Over 1.5 | 74% | 61% | |
| Over 2.5 | 58% | 26% | 42% |
| Over 3.5 | 26% | 16% | |
| Both teams scored | 65% | 26% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 19% | 45% | |
| Failed to score | 26% | 45% | |
| Games | 31 | 31 |
| Fiorentina | Lazio | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 2.10 | 2.37 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 30% | 42% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Fiorentina | Lazio | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.43 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.57 | 3.89 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 7.89 | 8.65 |
| Over 8.5 | 57% 17/30 | 46% 13/28 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 15/30 | 29% 8/28 | |
| Over 10.5 | 23% 7/30 | 11% 3/28 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.35 | 2.16 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.39 | 2.77 | |
| Match total | 4.74 | 4.93 | 3.91 |
| Over 3.5 | 71% 22/31 | 71% 22/31 | |
| Over 4.5 | 61% 19/31 | 61% 19/31 | |
| Fiorentina | Lazio | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 3.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 8.00 | 8.10 | 8.65 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 22% 2/9 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 11% 1/9 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 4.80 | 4.10 | 3.91 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Michael Fabbri Italy · 70 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.07league 3.72
Red cards0.30league 0.19
Cards 5+34%league 35%
Fouls24.3league 24.9
Penalties0.16league 0.30
Home wins37%league 40%
Fiorentina4 with this referee
Record1-0-3
Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- W16 Mar 25H · Juventus3–02
- L15 Dec 24A · Bologna0–12
- L12 Feb 23A · Juventus0–12
- L21 Sep 21H · Inter1–32
Lazio7 with this referee
Record4-1-2
Cards · opp.2.7 · 3.6
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds4
- L19 Jan 26H · Como0–34
- D7 Dec 25H · Bologna1–14
- L25 May 25H · Lecce0–13
- W19 Jan 25A · Verona3–02
- W27 Sep 23H · Torino2–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Fiorentina30 games · scored 35 · conceded 42
3
7
0-15
5
5
16-30
4
5
31-45
10
9
46-60
7
6
61-75
6
10
76-90
Lazio30 games · scored 30 · conceded 28
4
4
0-15
4
3
16-30
4
4
31-45
3
7
46-60
4
6
61-75
11
4
76-90
Fiorentina10 games · scored 13 · conceded 14
1
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
2
31-45
1
4
46-60
3
1
61-75
6
3
76-90
Lazio9 games · scored 9 · conceded 9
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
3
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
