Fiorentina vs Parma – 18 Apr 2027

Serie A Gameweek 32 Sun, Apr 18 · 17:30 Stadio Artemio Franchi, Firenze

Fiorentina 18th · 4 pts · 7 played LWDLL

VS— Compare

Parma 19th · 4 pts · 7 played DLWLL

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel135 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2

Real contextStrength only

Fiorentina—%

Draw—%

Parma—%

Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.

Weather (Firenze)

Forecast from 3 Apr

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Streak Fiorentina 5 Scoring in a row Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Scoring in a row

Team strength

Fiorentina

Parma

— L90 StrengthIn forecast —

39 Current StrengthIn forecast 28

42 AttackIn forecast 20

34 DefenceIn forecast 33

20 Form indexContext 23

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Fiorentina

Attack—

Defense risk—

Parma

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Fiorentina

Parma

1.14 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.57

2.43 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.86

1.59 xGVia Att/Def 0.67

1.58 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.72

-0.45 Goals minus xGContext -0.10

71% Scored inContext 43%

0% Clean sheetsContext 0%

16.43 ShotsContext 10.57

5.43 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.43

33% On target shareContext 32%

10.14 Shots in the boxContext 7.50

61% Box shareContext 65%

7% ConversionContext 5%

1.83 OffsidesContext 1.83

12.14 Shots allowedContext 17.00

5.43 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.29

2.00 BlocksContext 4.29

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.57

55% Save rateContext 68%

47% PossessionIn forecast 43%

390 PassesContext 394

328 Accurate passesContext 324

84% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.54 Team ratingContext 6.62

11.00 FoulsContext 9.86

12.43 Fouls sufferedContext 15.43

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.57

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games

1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.70

1.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.70

1.31 xGVia Att/Def 0.70

1.47 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.77

-0.21 Goals minus xGContext +0.00

70% Scored inContext 50%

20% Clean sheetsContext 10%

14.90 ShotsContext 10.30

4.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.20

32% On target shareContext 31%

9.20 Shots in the boxContext 7.50

61% Box shareContext 63%

7% ConversionContext 7%

1.89 OffsidesContext 2.11

13.90 Shots allowedContext 16.20

5.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.10

2.40 BlocksContext 4.50

3.90 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.60

70% Save rateContext 71%

47% PossessionIn forecast 42%

388 PassesContext 367

324 Accurate passesContext 300

84% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.68 Team ratingContext 6.71

11.10 FoulsContext 10.50

13.00 Fouls sufferedContext 14.10

1.60 Yellow cardsContext 1.60

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Fiorentina LWDLL

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km566 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 20 · 4 pts vs 7.9 for an average club · -2.8 vs expected

L18 OctH · Como1–31.0 xPts
L10 OctA · Genoa1–21.4 xPts
D20 SepH · Napoli1–11.2 xPts
W11 SepA · Venezia4–21.6 xPts
L5 SepH · Torino1–21.6 xPts

Parma DLWLL

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel135 km345 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 23 · 4 pts vs 7.4 for an average club · -1.4 vs expected

L19 OctH · Torino0–31.3 xPts
L10 OctA · Inter0–30.3 xPts
W20 SepH · Genoa2–11.6 xPts
L14 SepA · Como1–20.4 xPts
D6 SepH · Monza1–11.8 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Fiorentina	Parma
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Serie A 2026-2027, 11 Apr	7Serie A 2026-2027, 11 Apr
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	135 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	566 km	345 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 3	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	7	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Fiorentina Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Como (H) 1–3, 18 Oct

43David de Gea(G)

33Viery 5M. Pongračić 3R. Drăgușin 20Álex Jiménez

44N. Fagioli 27C. Ndour

25A. Njie 28Pote 30Franco Mastantuono

32Mateo Pellegrino

Parma Last XI · not confirmed

3-4-2-1 · vs Torino (H) 0–3, 19 Oct

40E. Corvi(G)

15E. Delprato 37Mariano Troilo 34Diego Carlos

14E. Valeri 16L. Keita 10Adrián Bernabé 27Sascha Britschgi

19E. Touré 80G. Fabbian

9D. Romero

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Fiorentina Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Parma Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Fiorentina · Home 0.25points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 0-1-3
Scored: 0.75
Conceded: 2.25

Parma · Away 0.00points per game · 3 away games

W-D-L: 0-0-3
Scored: 0.33
Conceded: 2.33

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

Opponent	Fiorentina	Parma
Como	L 1–3 H	L 1–2 A
Genoa	L 1–2 A	W 2–1 H
Torino	L 1–2 H	L 0–3 H
Points	0 of 9 · 0.00 per game	3 of 9 · 1.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

0 Fiorentina wins3 draws1 Parma wins

Goals per game0.25 – 0.50 Over 2.50% Both scored25% Clean sheets50% · 75%

8 Mar 2026Fiorentina0–0Parma
27 Dec 2025Parma1–0Fiorentina
13 Apr 2025Fiorentina0–0Parma
17 Aug 2024Parma1–1Fiorentina

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Fiorentina	Parma
Scored per game	1.14	0.57
Conceded per game	2.43	1.86
Match goals	3.57	2.43
Over 1.5	100%	86%
Over 2.5	86%	57%
Over 3.5	43%	0%
Both teams scored	71%	43%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	29%	57%
Games	7	7

	Fiorentina	Parma
Scored per game	1.10	0.70
Conceded per game	1.80	1.70
Match goals	2.90	2.40
Over 1.5	90%	70%
Over 2.5	60%	50%
Over 3.5	30%	10%
Both teams scored	60%	40%
Clean sheets	20%	10%
Failed to score	30%	50%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Fiorentina	Parma	League
Corners
Corners won	5.29	3.29
Corners conceded	3.86	5.14
Match total	9.15	8.43	9.38
Over 8.5	43% 3/7	43% 3/7
Over 9.5	29% 2/7	29% 2/7
Over 10.5	29% 2/7	29% 2/7
Cards
Cards	2.00	1.57
Opponent cards	2.14	1.71
Match total	4.14	3.28	3.43
Over 3.5	57% 4/7	57% 4/7
Over 4.5	43% 3/7	43% 3/7

	Fiorentina	Parma	League
Corners
Corners won	4.50	2.90
Corners conceded	3.90	5.80
Match total	8.40	8.70	9.38
Over 8.5	30% 3/10	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	20% 2/10	30% 3/10
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	1.70	1.70
Opponent cards	1.80	1.60
Match total	3.50	3.30	3.43
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.