AC Milan
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel658 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
AC Milan—%
Draw—%
Napoli—%
Weather (Milano)
Forecast from 3 Apr
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for AC Milan and Napoli. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Insight
Napoli
+1.02
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.81xG against0.79
-
Insight
AC Milan
3
Clean sheets
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Alert
Napoli
1.6
Goals conceded away per match
Last 5 recorded away matches
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Trend
AC Milan
2.0
Goals scored per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
AC Milan
1.0
Goals conceded per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Napoli
3
Clean sheets
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet
Attack
-
Insight
Napoli
+1.02
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.81xG against0.79
-
Trend
AC Milan
2.0
Goals scored per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
AC Milan
+0.70
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.97xG against1.27
Defence
-
Insight
AC Milan
3
Clean sheets
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Insight
AC Milan
1.0
Goals conceded per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Alert
Napoli
1.6
Goals conceded away per match
Last 5 recorded away matches
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Napoli
3
Clean sheets
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet
Streaks
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Team strength
AC MilanNapoli
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
66
Current StrengthIn forecast
61
72
AttackIn forecast
61
69
DefenceIn forecast
70
74
Form indexContext
44
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisNapoli
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AC MilanNapoli
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.43
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.83
xGVia Att/Def
1.79
1.19
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.77
+0.17
Goals minus xGContext
-0.36
100%
Scored inContext
86%
29%
Clean sheetsContext
43%
12.29
ShotsContext
16.71
4.71
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.43
38%
On target shareContext
33%
7.83
Shots in the boxContext
11.86
67%
Box shareContext
70%
16%
ConversionContext
9%
1.60
OffsidesContext
3.00
9.57
Shots allowedContext
15.57
3.57
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.86
2.67
BlocksContext
4.40
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.86
75%
Save rateContext
74%
60%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
583
PassesContext
510
522
Accurate passesContext
443
90%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.98
Team ratingContext
6.88
9.29
FoulsContext
8.57
12.00
Fouls sufferedContext
8.86
1.86
Yellow cardsContext
0.86
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
1.97
xGVia Att/Def
1.81
1.27
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.79
-0.07
Goals minus xGContext
-0.61
90%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
13.20
ShotsContext
14.70
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
38%
On target shareContext
34%
9.00
Shots in the boxContext
10.20
69%
Box shareContext
67%
14%
ConversionContext
8%
1.86
OffsidesContext
2.90
11.70
Shots allowedContext
16.20
4.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.20
3.44
BlocksContext
5.13
3.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.90
78%
Save rateContext
69%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
556
PassesContext
516
498
Accurate passesContext
450
90%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.98
Team ratingContext
6.82
9.90
FoulsContext
9.00
11.80
Fouls sufferedContext
9.40
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.10
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
AC Milan
LWDWW
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km496 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 74 · 10 pts vs 7.1 for an average club · +1.5 vs expected
Napoli
WDWLL
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel658 km948 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 44 · 7 pts vs 7.7 for an average club · -1.7 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| AC Milan |
Napoli |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Serie A 2026-2027, 11 Apr | 7Serie A 2026-2027, 11 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 658 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 496 km | 948 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
AC Milan
Last XI · not confirmed
16M. Maignan(G)
31S. Pavlović
5K. De Winter
34Mario Gila
22Diego Moreira
14L. Modrić
80Y. Musah
21S. Chukwueze
11C. Pulišić
9Gonçalo Ramos
12A. Rabiot
Napoli
Last XI · not confirmed
1A. Meret(G)
5B. Badiashile
13A. Rrahmani
31S. Beukema
37L. Spinazzola
68S. Lobotka
6B. Gilmour
22G. Di Lorenzo
8S. McTominay
23Giovane
20L. Lucca
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences AC Milan
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Napoli
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
AC Milan · Home
3.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-0-0
- Scored
- 2.67
- Conceded
- 0.67
Napoli · Away
1.00points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-2
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 1.25
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | AC Milan | Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| Venezia | W 2–0 H | L 0–1 A |
| Points | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
4 AC Milan wins1 draws5 Napoli wins
Goals per game1.20 – 1.10
Over 2.550%
Both scored40%
Clean sheets30% · 30%
- 6 Apr 2026Napoli1–0AC Milan
- 28 Sep 2025AC Milan2–1Napoli
- 30 Mar 2025Napoli2–1AC Milan
- 29 Oct 2024AC Milan0–2Napoli
- 11 Feb 2024AC Milan1–0Napoli
- 29 Oct 2023Napoli2–2AC Milan
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| AC Milan | Napoli | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 1.43 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.43 | |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 43% | |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 14% | |
| Both teams scored | 71% | 43% | |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 43% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 14% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| AC Milan | Napoli | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.90 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.30 | |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 40% | |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% | |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| AC Milan | Napoli | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.00 | 4.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.14 | 6.00 | |
| Match total | 6.14 | 10.60 | 9.38 |
| Over 8.5 | 0% 0/7 | 100% 5/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/7 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/7 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.86 | 0.86 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.43 | 1.29 | |
| Match total | 3.29 | 2.15 | 3.43 |
| Over 3.5 | 57% 4/7 | 0% 0/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 29% 2/7 | 0% 0/7 | |
| AC Milan | Napoli | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.70 | 3.88 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.10 | 5.38 | |
| Match total | 6.80 | 9.26 | 9.38 |
| Over 8.5 | 20% 2/10 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 2/10 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/10 | 13% 1/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 1.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 2.70 | 3.43 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
AC Milan7 games · scored 14 · conceded 7
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
46-60
9
2
61-75
1
3
76-90
Napoli7 games · scored 10 · conceded 7
0-15
3
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
61-75
3
2
76-90
AC Milan10 games · scored 19 · conceded 11
3
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
10
2
61-75
1
3
76-90
Napoli10 games · scored 12 · conceded 11
1
0-15
4
3
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
1
61-75
3
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.
