Fiorentina
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel248 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Real contextStrength only
Fiorentina—%
Draw—%
AC Milan—%
Weather (Firenze)
Forecast from 27 Mar
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Fiorentina and AC Milan. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Insight
AC Milan
+0.70
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.97xG against1.27
-
Trend
Fiorentina
71%
Both teams scored
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Insight
AC Milan
3
Clean sheets
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Trend
AC Milan
2.0
Goals scored per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Alert
Fiorentina
2.4
Goals conceded per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Streak
Fiorentina
5
Scoring in a row
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Scoring in a row
Attack
-
Insight
AC Milan
+0.70
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.97xG against1.27
-
Trend
AC Milan
2.0
Goals scored per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Trend
Fiorentina
71%
Both teams scored
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Streak
Fiorentina
5
Scoring in a row
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Scoring in a row
Defence
-
Insight
AC Milan
3
Clean sheets
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Insight
AC Milan
1.0
Goals conceded per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Alert
Fiorentina
2.4
Goals conceded per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Team strength
FiorentinaAC Milan
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
39
Current StrengthIn forecast
66
42
AttackIn forecast
72
34
DefenceIn forecast
69
20
Form indexContext
74
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAC Milan
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FiorentinaAC Milan
1.14
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
2.43
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.59
xGVia Att/Def
1.83
1.58
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.19
-0.45
Goals minus xGContext
+0.17
71%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
29%
16.43
ShotsContext
12.29
5.43
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.71
33%
On target shareContext
38%
10.14
Shots in the boxContext
7.83
61%
Box shareContext
67%
7%
ConversionContext
16%
1.83
OffsidesContext
1.60
12.14
Shots allowedContext
9.57
5.43
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.57
2.00
BlocksContext
2.67
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
55%
Save rateContext
75%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
60%
390
PassesContext
583
328
Accurate passesContext
522
84%
Pass accuracyContext
90%
6.54
Team ratingContext
6.98
11.00
FoulsContext
9.29
12.43
Fouls sufferedContext
12.00
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.86
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.90
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
1.31
xGVia Att/Def
1.97
1.47
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.27
-0.21
Goals minus xGContext
-0.07
70%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
14.90
ShotsContext
13.20
4.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
32%
On target shareContext
38%
9.20
Shots in the boxContext
9.00
61%
Box shareContext
69%
7%
ConversionContext
14%
1.89
OffsidesContext
1.86
13.90
Shots allowedContext
11.70
5.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.10
2.40
BlocksContext
3.44
3.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.44
70%
Save rateContext
78%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
388
PassesContext
556
324
Accurate passesContext
498
84%
Pass accuracyContext
90%
6.68
Team ratingContext
6.98
11.10
FoulsContext
9.90
13.00
Fouls sufferedContext
11.80
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Fiorentina
LWDLL
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km566 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 20 · 4 pts vs 7.9 for an average club · -2.8 vs expected
AC Milan
LWDWW
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel248 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 74 · 10 pts vs 7.1 for an average club · +1.5 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Fiorentina |
AC Milan |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Serie A 2026-2027, 4 Apr | 7Serie A 2026-2027, 4 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 248 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 566 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Fiorentina
Last XI · not confirmed
43David de Gea(G)
33Viery
5M. Pongračić
3R. Drăgușin
20Álex Jiménez
44N. Fagioli
27C. Ndour
25A. Njie
28Pote
30Franco Mastantuono
32Mateo Pellegrino
AC Milan
Last XI · not confirmed
16M. Maignan(G)
31S. Pavlović
5K. De Winter
34Mario Gila
22Diego Moreira
14L. Modrić
80Y. Musah
21S. Chukwueze
11C. Pulišić
9Gonçalo Ramos
12A. Rabiot
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Fiorentina
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
AC Milan
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
Fiorentina · Home
0.25points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-3
- Scored
- 0.75
- Conceded
- 2.25
AC Milan · Away
1.50points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-3-0
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.25
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Fiorentina | AC Milan |
|---|---|---|
| Venezia | W 4–2 A | W 2–0 H |
| Torino | L 1–2 H | W 2–1 A |
| Points | 3 of 6 · 1.50 per game | 6 of 6 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
3 Fiorentina wins2 draws5 AC Milan wins
Goals per game1.40 – 1.60
Over 2.570%
Both scored80%
Clean sheets0% · 20%
- 11 Jan 2026Fiorentina1–1AC Milan
- 19 Oct 2025AC Milan2–1Fiorentina
- 5 Apr 2025AC Milan2–2Fiorentina
- 6 Oct 2024Fiorentina2–1AC Milan
- 30 Mar 2024Fiorentina1–2AC Milan
- 25 Nov 2023AC Milan1–0Fiorentina
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Fiorentina | AC Milan | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.14 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.43 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.57 | 3.00 | |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 86% | 57% | |
| Over 3.5 | 43% | 29% | |
| Both teams scored | 71% | 71% | |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 29% | 0% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Fiorentina | AC Milan | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 1.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.80 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 3.00 | |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Fiorentina | AC Milan | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.29 | 3.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.86 | 3.14 | |
| Match total | 9.15 | 6.14 | 9.38 |
| Over 8.5 | 43% 3/7 | 0% 0/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 29% 2/7 | 0% 0/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 29% 2/7 | 0% 0/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.86 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.14 | 1.43 | |
| Match total | 4.14 | 3.29 | 3.43 |
| Over 3.5 | 57% 4/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 43% 3/7 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Fiorentina | AC Milan | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 3.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.90 | 3.10 | |
| Match total | 8.40 | 6.80 | 9.38 |
| Over 8.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 2/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 0% 0/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 3.60 | 3.43 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Fiorentina7 games · scored 8 · conceded 17
2
0-15
2
4
16-30
1
3
31-45
2
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
1
3
76-90
AC Milan7 games · scored 14 · conceded 7
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
46-60
9
2
61-75
1
3
76-90
Fiorentina10 games · scored 11 · conceded 18
2
0-15
2
4
16-30
3
3
31-45
2
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
2
4
76-90
AC Milan10 games · scored 19 · conceded 11
3
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
10
2
61-75
1
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.
