FK Crvena Zvezda
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Lille were the stronger side on L90 Strength (61 vs 39). Lille come in after 4+ matches in 14 days. FK Crvena Zvezda had 14 days of rest, Lille 4.1 and had to travel 1,442 km.
Away travel1,442 kmRest days14 · 4.1Matches / 14d0 · 4
FK Crvena Zvezda36%
Draw26%
Lille38%
FK Crvena Zvezda31%
Draw27%
Lille42%
FK Crvena Zvezda34%
Draw26%
Lille39%
FK Crvena Zvezda29%
Draw26%
Lille46%
FK Crvena Zvezda32%
Draw27%
Lille41%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Beograd)
No weather data yet
RefereeJohn Brooks
- Cards per match 4.5
- Penalties per match 0.22
- Matches 87
Team strength
FK Crvena Zvezda
Lille
39
L90 StrengthIn forecast
61
42
Current StrengthIn forecast
52
40
AttackIn forecast
42
39
DefenceIn forecast
60
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLille
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FK Crvena ZvezdaLille
0.67
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.67
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.67
0.81
xGVia Att/Def
1.31
1.95
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.76
-0.14
Goals minus xGContext
+0.69
67%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
10.67
ShotsContext
15.33
3.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.33
28%
On target shareContext
41%
6.67
Shots in the boxContext
10.33
60%
Box shareContext
72%
6%
ConversionContext
13%
2.33
OffsidesContext
2.00
12.00
Shots allowedContext
13.00
4.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.33
2.33
BlocksContext
3.00
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.33
64%
Save rateContext
63%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
443
PassesContext
505
365
Accurate passesContext
418
83%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.64
Team ratingContext
7.06
8.33
FoulsContext
9.00
10.67
Fouls sufferedContext
15.00
1.67
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.05
xGVia Att/Def
1.58
1.56
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.47
+0.45
Goals minus xGContext
+0.02
90%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
14.14
ShotsContext
16.10
3.86
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.20
27%
On target shareContext
32%
9.43
Shots in the boxContext
11.50
65%
Box shareContext
74%
8%
ConversionContext
10%
2.67
OffsidesContext
1.38
11.43
Shots allowedContext
10.70
4.14
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.10
2.29
BlocksContext
2.75
2.86
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.60
69%
Save rateContext
63%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
407
PassesContext
501
330
Accurate passesContext
425
81%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.97
10.29
FoulsContext
11.90
13.14
Fouls sufferedContext
14.00
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
FK Crvena Zvezda
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Lille
Rest4.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d4High congestion
Travel1,442 km1,657 km in 14d
Schedule load52%High
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| FK Crvena Zvezda |
Lille |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | High · 52 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | Yes |
| Rest dayssince last match | 14UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 23 Oct | 4.1Ligue 1 2025-2026, 2 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,442 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 1,657 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 1 | 1 / 4 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 21.1 | 2.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
FK Crvena Zvezda
Confirmed XI
1Matheus(G)
23N. Tiknizyan
30F. Tebo Uchenna
13M. Veljković
66Y. Seol
21T. Elšnik
33R. Krunić
4M. Ivanić
20Tomás Händel
49N. Radonjić
89M. Arnautović
Lille
Confirmed XI
1B. Özer(G)
24C. Verdonk
23A. Mandi
18C. Mbemba
22Tiago Santos
32A. Bouaddi
6N. Bentaleb
27Félix Correia
17N. Mukau
14M. Broholm
29H. Igamane
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences FK Crvena Zvezda
Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Lille
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- FK Crvena Zvezda+1.2 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Lille-1.0 pp
Home / Away this season
FK Crvena Zvezda · Home
1.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Lille · Away
3.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| FK Crvena Zvezda | Lille | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.67 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.67 | 1.67 | |
| Match goals | 2.33 | 3.67 | 2.85 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 67% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 67% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 0% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
| FK Crvena Zvezda | Lille | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.67 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.67 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 2.33 | 2.90 | 2.85 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 40% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 40% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 30% | |
| Games | 3 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| FK Crvena Zvezda | Lille | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.33 | 9.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.67 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 8.00 | 13.00 | 9.13 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 1/3 | 100% 3/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 1/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 1/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.67 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.67 | 2.33 | |
| Match total | 3.34 | 4.33 | 4.20 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 2/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 1/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| FK Crvena Zvezda | Lille | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.14 | 7.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.71 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 9.85 | 11.90 | 9.13 |
| Over 8.5 | 43% 3/7 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 43% 3/7 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 43% 3/7 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · John Brooks 87 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.36league 4.06
Red cards0.11league 0.15
Cards 5+47%league 39%
Fouls22.7league 24.9
Penalties0.22league 0.39
Home wins54%league 48%
FK Crvena ZvezdaNo previous matches with this referee.
LilleNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
FK Crvena Zvezda3 games · scored 2 · conceded 5
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
76-90
Lille3 games · scored 6 · conceded 5
1
0-15
2
16-30
1
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
76-90
FK Crvena Zvezda10 games · scored 15 · conceded 11
2
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
4
1
31-45
3
3
46-60
4
1
61-75
3
76-90
Lille10 games · scored 16 · conceded 13
2
1
0-15
1
4
16-30
2
2
31-45
3
2
46-60
2
2
61-75
6
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
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