Bundesliga Gameweek 1 Sun, Aug 24 · 14:30 MEWA ARENA, Mainz
FSV Mainz 05
0–1Full time
1.FC Köln
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

FSV Mainz 05 were slight favourites.

FSV Mainz 05 were the stronger side on L90 Strength (58 vs 35). FSV Mainz 05 had ? days of rest, 1.FC Köln ? and had to travel 142 km.

Away travel142 kmMatches / 14d0 · 0
FSV Mainz 0559%
Draw22%
1.FC Köln19%
Expected goals 2.02 – 1.05
FSV Mainz 0557%
Draw24%
1.FC Köln19%
Expected goals 1.85 – 0.97
FSV Mainz 0559%
Draw22%
1.FC Köln19%
Expected goals 2.02 – 1.05
FSV Mainz 0551%
Draw24%
1.FC Köln24%
Expected goals 1.80 – 1.18
FSV Mainz 0557%
Draw24%
1.FC Köln19%
Expected goals 1.85 – 0.97
Over 2.5 59% Both score 57% Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Mainz)

No weather data yet

Referee · GermanyTobias Stieler
  • Cards per match 3.9
  • Penalties per match 0.29
  • Matches 84

Team strength

FSV Mainz 051.FC Köln
58 L90 StrengthIn forecast 35
55 Current StrengthIn forecast 34
68 AttackIn forecast 36
56 DefenceIn forecast 36
— Form indexContext —
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

FSV Mainz 05

Attack—
Defense risk—

1.FC Köln

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

FSV Mainz 051.FC Köln
— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —
— Goals concededVia Att/Def —
— xGVia Att/Def —
— xG allowedVia Att/Def —
— Goals minus xGContext —
— Scored inContext —
— Clean sheetsContext —
— ShotsContext —
— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —
— On target shareContext —
— Shots in the boxContext —
— Box shareContext —
— ConversionContext —
— OffsidesContext —
— Shots allowedContext —
— On target allowedVia Att/Def —
— BlocksContext —
— Goalkeeper savesContext —
— Save rateContext —
— PossessionIn forecast —
— PassesContext —
— Accurate passesContext —
— Pass accuracyContext —
— Team ratingContext —
— FoulsContext —
— Fouls sufferedContext —
— Yellow cardsContext —
— Red cardsContext —
This league season, per match
1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20
1.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.10
1.50 xGVia Att/Def —
1.65 xG allowedVia Att/Def —
-0.10 Goals minus xGContext —
80% Scored inContext 70%
0% Clean sheetsContext 10%
13.50 ShotsContext 16.00
4.10 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.20
30% On target shareContext 33%
10.00 Shots in the boxContext 10.50
72% Box shareContext 65%
10% ConversionContext 8%
2.50 OffsidesContext 2.17
12.60 Shots allowedContext 15.20
5.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.67
2.80 BlocksContext 4.67
3.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.11
65% Save rateContext 55%
54% PossessionIn forecast 49%
440 PassesContext 380
351 Accurate passesContext 296
80% Pass accuracyContext 78%
6.94 Team ratingContext 6.86
10.50 FoulsContext 13.80
10.20 Fouls sufferedContext 11.70
1.40 Yellow cardsContext 2.60
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

FSV Mainz 05
Rest—since last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.
1.FC Köln
Rest—since last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel142 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
FSV Mainz 05 1.FC Köln
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match——
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km142 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways0 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 0 / 00 / 0 / 0
Next matchdays after this one77.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

FSV Mainz 05 Confirmed XI
3-4-2-1
27R. Zentner(G)
31D. Kohr 25A. Hanche-Olsen 21D. da Costa
2P. Mwene 10N. Amiri 6K. Sano 19A. Caci
7J. Lee 8P. Nebel
17B. Hollerbach
+1 more reported missing outside this XI
1.FC Köln Confirmed XI
3-4-2-1
1M. Schwäbe(G)
5T. Krauß 4T. Hübers 2Joel Schmied
32K. Lund 6E. Martel 18Í. Jóhannesson 28S. Sebulonsen
16J. Kamiński 29J. Thielmann
30M. Bülter
+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
FSV Mainz 05 Absences are shown before kick-off
1.FC Köln Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
  • FSV Mainz 05+0.0 pp
  • Draw+0.0 pp
  • 1.FC Köln+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

FSV Mainz 05 · Home No home games yet this season.
1.FC Köln · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

1 FSV Mainz 05 wins4 draws1 1.FC Köln wins
Goals per game1.67 – 1.00 Over 2.533% Both scored67% Clean sheets33% · 17%
  • 28 Apr 2024FSV Mainz 051–11.FC Köln
  • 10 Dec 20231.FC Köln0–0FSV Mainz 05
  • 15 Apr 20231.FC Köln1–1FSV Mainz 05
  • 21 Oct 2022FSV Mainz 055–01.FC Köln
  • 9 Apr 20221.FC Köln3–2FSV Mainz 05
  • 21 Nov 2021FSV Mainz 051–11.FC Köln

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

FSV Mainz 051.FC KölnForecast
Scored per game ——
Conceded per game ——
Match goals —— 3.07
Over 1.5 ——
Over 2.5 —— 59%
Over 3.5 ——
Both teams scored —— 57%
Clean sheets ——
Failed to score ——
Games00
FSV Mainz 051.FC KölnForecast
Scored per game ——
Conceded per game ——
Match goals —— 3.07
Over 1.5 ——
Over 2.5 —— 59%
Over 3.5 ——
Both teams scored —— 57%
Clean sheets ——
Failed to score ——
Games00

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

FSV Mainz 051.FC KölnLeague
Corners
Corners won——
Corners conceded——
Match total——10.00
Over 8.5——
Over 9.5——
Over 10.5——
Cards
Cards——
Opponent cards——
Match total——6.17
Over 3.5——
Over 4.5——
FSV Mainz 051.FC KölnLeague
Corners
Corners won5.106.10
Corners conceded4.005.80
Match total9.1011.9010.00
Over 8.560% 6/1080% 8/10
Over 9.560% 6/1070% 7/10
Over 10.530% 3/1060% 6/10
Cards
Cards1.602.60
Opponent cards2.601.80
Match total4.204.406.17
Over 3.560% 6/1060% 6/10
Over 4.530% 3/1040% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Tobias Stieler Germany · 84 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.67league 5.71
Red cards0.18league 0.14
Cards 5+32%league 71%
Fouls22.0league 25.6
Penalties0.29league 0.57
Home wins52%league 43%
FSV Mainz 056 with this referee
Record3-0-3 Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.3 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds1
  • W10 May 25A · VfL Bochum4–10
  • W25 Jan 25H · VfB Stuttgart2–04
  • W11 May 24H · Borussia Dortmund3–02
  • L3 Dec 23H · SC Freiburg0–11
  • L20 Aug 23A · Union Berlin1–45
1.FC Köln9 with this referee
Record2-3-4 Cards · opp.1.3 · 1.8 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds1
  • L3 Mar 24H · Bayer Leverkusen0–23
  • L30 Sep 23H · VfB Stuttgart0–22
  • D4 Mar 23A · Union Berlin0–00
  • D24 Jan 23A · Bayern München1–11
  • L9 Nov 22H · Bayer Leverkusen1–21

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.

Goal timing

FSV Mainz 05
No complete event data.
1.FC Köln
No complete event data.
FSV Mainz 0510 games · scored 14 · conceded 19
2 0-15
1 2 16-30
5 6 31-45
2 3 46-60
4 1 61-75
2 5 76-90
1.FC Köln10 games · scored 12 · conceded 21
1 2 0-15
1 5 16-30
2 2 31-45
2 46-60
2 6 61-75
6 4 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

Next fixtures Bundesliga

View all fixtures →
Bayern München RB Leipzig 60 SC Freiburg FC Augsburg 13 Bayer Leverkusen 1899 Hoffenheim 12 Eintracht Frankfurt Werder Bremen 41 1. FC Heidenheim VfL Wolfsburg 13 Union Berlin VfB Stuttgart 21 FC St. Pauli Borussia Dortmund 33 FSV Mainz 05 1.FC Köln 01 Borussia Mönchengladbach Hamburger SV 00