FSV Mainz 05
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
FSV Mainz 0559.3%fair odds 1.69
Draw22.2%fair odds 4.51
1.FC Köln18.5%fair odds 5.39
Expected goals2.02 – 1.05total 3.07
Likeliest score1–110.4%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
1.FC Köln
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| FSV Mainz 05 ↓ · 1.FC Köln → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 10.4 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are FSV Mainz 05 goals, columns 1.FC Köln goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–110.4%9.64
- 2–19.9%10.06
- 2–09.5%10.54
- 1–08.9%11.27
- 3–16.7%14.94
- 3–06.4%15.67
- 2–25.2%19.18
- 0–05.2%19.31
- 1–25.2%19.36
- 0–14.4%22.94
Winning margin
18.1%
FSV Mainz 05 by 3+
fair 5.54
18.2%
FSV Mainz 05 by 2
fair 5.49
23.0%
FSV Mainz 05 by 1
fair 4.34
22.2%
Draw
fair 4.51
11.7%
1.FC Köln by 1
fair 8.54
4.9%
1.FC Köln by 2
fair 20.34
1.9%
1.FC Köln by 3+
fair 52.17
Goal distribution
Total goals
5%0
13%1
22%2
22%3
17%4
20%5+
FSV Mainz 05 goals
13%0
27%1
27%2
18%3
15%4+
1.FC Köln goals
35%0
37%1
19%2
7%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| FSV Mainz 05 win | 59.3% | 57.5% | +1.8 pp |
| Draw | 22.2% | 23.7% | -1.5 pp |
| 1.FC Köln win | 18.5% | 18.9% | -0.3 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 59.2% | 53.4% | +5.7 pp |
| Both teams score | 56.9% | 52.8% | +4.1 pp |
| Expected goals FSV Mainz 05 | 2.02 | 1.85 | +0.17 |
| Expected goals 1.FC Köln | 1.05 | 0.97 | +0.08 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- FSV Mainz 05 win59.3%1.69
- Draw22.2%4.51
- 1.FC Köln win18.5%5.39
- Double chance FSV Mainz 05 or draw81.5%1.23
- Double chance FSV Mainz 05 or 1.FC Köln77.8%1.28
- Double chance 1.FC Köln or draw40.7%2.46
- Draw no bet FSV Mainz 0576.2%1.31
- Draw no bet 1.FC Köln23.8%4.20
Goals
- Over 0.594.8%1.05
- Over 1.581.6%1.23
- Over 2.559.2%1.69
- Over 3.536.8%2.72
- Over 4.519.6%5.10
- Under 1.518.4%5.43
- Under 2.540.8%2.45
- Under 3.563.2%1.58
Both teams to score
- Yes56.9%1.76
- No43.1%2.32
- Yes and over 2.546.5%2.15
- FSV Mainz 05 win and yes29.4%3.40
- Draw and yes17.0%5.88
- 1.FC Köln win and yes10.4%9.59
Team goals
- FSV Mainz 05 over 0.586.7%1.15
- FSV Mainz 05 over 1.559.9%1.67
- FSV Mainz 05 over 2.532.8%3.05
- 1.FC Köln over 0.565.0%1.54
- 1.FC Köln over 1.528.2%3.54
- 1.FC Köln over 2.58.9%11.18
- FSV Mainz 05 clean sheet35.0%2.85
- 1.FC Köln clean sheet13.3%7.53
- FSV Mainz 05 win to nil29.9%3.35
- 1.FC Köln win to nil8.1%12.34
Handicap
- FSV Mainz 05 −1.536.3%2.76
- FSV Mainz 05 −2.518.1%5.54
- 1.FC Köln +1.563.7%1.57
- 1.FC Köln +2.581.9%1.22
- 1.FC Köln −1.56.8%14.63
- FSV Mainz 05 +1.593.2%1.07
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored7
Favourite won42.9%
Avg chance given to result35.3%
1X2 Brier0.736
Over 2.5 called right100.0%
BTTS called right85.7%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 1 | 38.6% | 100.0% |
| 40–50% | 1 | 43.8% | 0.0% |
| 50–60% | 2 | 52.7% | 50.0% |
| 60–70% | 1 | 66.0% | 0.0% |
| 70–80% | 2 | 72.2% | 50.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 0 of 7 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | — | — |
| Avg chance given to result | — | — |
| Favourite won | — | — |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off.
No verified pre-match bookmaker odds are available for comparison yet.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 7 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.