FSV Mainz 05 vs 1899 Hoffenheim – 21 Nov 2025

Bundesliga Gameweek 11 Fri, Nov 21 · 19:30 MEWA ARENA, Mainz

FSV Mainz 05 17th · 5 pts · 10 played LLLDL

1–1Full time

1899 Hoffenheim 6th · 19 pts · 10 played LWWWW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

FSV Mainz 05 were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. FSV Mainz 05 had 12 days of rest, 1899 Hoffenheim 13.2 and had to travel 92 km.

Away travel92 kmRest days12 · 13.2Matches / 14d1 · 1

FSV Mainz 0545%

Draw26%

1899 Hoffenheim30%

Expected goals 1.63 – 1.29

FSV Mainz 0544%

Draw27%

1899 Hoffenheim29%

Expected goals 1.51 – 1.19

FSV Mainz 0545%

Draw26%

1899 Hoffenheim30%

Expected goals 1.63 – 1.29

FSV Mainz 0537%

Draw26%

1899 Hoffenheim37%

Expected goals 1.45 – 1.44

FSV Mainz 0544%

Draw27%

1899 Hoffenheim29%

Expected goals 1.51 – 1.19

Over 2.5 56% Both score 59% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Mainz)

No weather data yet

Referee · GermanySascha Stegemann

Cards per match 4.5
Penalties per match 0.17
Matches 84

Team strength

FSV Mainz 05

1899 Hoffenheim

51 L90 StrengthIn forecast 51

55 Current StrengthIn forecast 47

68 AttackIn forecast 46

56 DefenceIn forecast 43

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

FSV Mainz 05

Attack—

Defense risk—

1899 Hoffenheim

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

FSV Mainz 05

1899 Hoffenheim

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.10

1.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60

1.14 xGVia Att/Def 1.63

1.50 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.44

-0.14 Goals minus xGContext +0.47

50% Scored inContext 90%

0% Clean sheetsContext 10%

11.40 ShotsContext 12.40

3.11 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.70

25% On target shareContext 38%

8.40 Shots in the boxContext 9.00

70% Box shareContext 70%

9% ConversionContext 17%

3.33 OffsidesContext 2.38

14.10 Shots allowedContext 11.40

4.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.30

3.89 BlocksContext 3.60

2.90 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.44

60% Save rateContext 74%

49% PossessionIn forecast 53%

393 PassesContext 438

299 Accurate passesContext 352

76% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.72 Team ratingContext 6.88

12.30 FoulsContext 14.90

12.30 Fouls sufferedContext 9.20

2.50 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 10 and 10 games

1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.10

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60

1.35 xGVia Att/Def 1.63

1.33 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.44

-0.05 Goals minus xGContext +0.47

70% Scored inContext 90%

20% Clean sheetsContext 10%

10.90 ShotsContext 12.40

3.22 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.70

27% On target shareContext 38%

7.70 Shots in the boxContext 9.00

69% Box shareContext 70%

12% ConversionContext 17%

2.70 OffsidesContext 2.38

12.10 Shots allowedContext 11.40

5.22 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.30

3.50 BlocksContext 3.60

3.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.44

64% Save rateContext 74%

49% PossessionIn forecast 53%

396 PassesContext 438

301 Accurate passesContext 352

76% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.71 Team ratingContext 6.88

13.00 FoulsContext 14.90

12.20 Fouls sufferedContext 9.20

2.30 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

FSV Mainz 05

Rest12 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km65 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

1899 Hoffenheim

Rest13.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel92 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	FSV Mainz 05	1899 Hoffenheim
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	12Bundesliga 2025-2026, 9 Nov	13.2Bundesliga 2025-2026, 8 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	92 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	65 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 3	0 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	9	7.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

FSV Mainz 05 Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

27R. Zentner(G)

25A. Hanche-Olsen 15L. Maloney 31D. Kohr

30S. Widmer 6K. Sano 10N. Amiri 2P. Mwene

17B. Hollerbach 8P. Nebel

7J. Lee

1899 Hoffenheim Confirmed XI

4-3-1-2

1O. Baumann(G)

13Bernardo 21A. Hajdari 2R. Hranáč 34V. Coufal

18W. Burger 7L. Avdullahu 6G. Prömel

27A. Kramarić

11F. Asllani 29B. Toure

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

FSV Mainz 05 Absences are shown before kick-off

1899 Hoffenheim Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

FSV Mainz 05+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
1899 Hoffenheim+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

FSV Mainz 05 · Home 0.20points per game · 5 home games

W-D-L: 0-1-4
Scored: 0.80
Conceded: 1.80

1899 Hoffenheim · Away 2.60points per game · 5 away games

W-D-L: 4-1-0
Scored: 2.60
Conceded: 1.20

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 5 this season

Opponent	FSV Mainz 05	1899 Hoffenheim
Eintracht Frankfurt	L 0–1 A	L 1–3 H
Bayer Leverkusen	L 3–4 H	W 2–1 A
RB Leipzig	L 0–1 H	W 3–1 H
VfL Wolfsburg	D 1–1 A	W 3–2 A
1.FC Köln	L 0–1 H	L 0–1 H
Points	1 of 15 · 0.20 per game	9 of 15 · 1.80 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

5 FSV Mainz 05 wins1 draws2 1899 Hoffenheim wins

Goals per game1.63 – 1.00 Over 2.525% Both scored38% Clean sheets50% · 13%

12 Apr 20251899 Hoffenheim2–0FSV Mainz 05
1 Dec 2024FSV Mainz 052–01899 Hoffenheim
13 Apr 2024FSV Mainz 054–11899 Hoffenheim
26 Nov 20231899 Hoffenheim1–1FSV Mainz 05
4 Mar 2023FSV Mainz 051–01899 Hoffenheim
10 Sep 20221899 Hoffenheim4–1FSV Mainz 05

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	FSV Mainz 05	1899 Hoffenheim	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	2.10
Conceded per game	1.80	1.60
Match goals	2.80	3.70	2.92
Over 1.5	70%	90%
Over 2.5	40%	80%	56%
Over 3.5	30%	60%
Both teams scored	50%	80%	59%
Clean sheets	0%	10%
Failed to score	50%	10%
Games	10	10

	FSV Mainz 05	1899 Hoffenheim	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	2.10
Conceded per game	1.80	1.60
Match goals	2.80	3.70	2.92
Over 1.5	70%	90%
Over 2.5	40%	80%	56%
Over 3.5	30%	60%
Both teams scored	50%	80%	59%
Clean sheets	0%	10%
Failed to score	50%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	FSV Mainz 05	1899 Hoffenheim	League
Corners
Corners won	5.00	5.30
Corners conceded	3.67	5.70
Match total	8.67	11.00	9.73
Over 8.5	44% 4/9	90% 9/10
Over 9.5	44% 4/9	80% 8/10
Over 10.5	22% 2/9	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	2.80	2.00
Opponent cards	1.90	1.40
Match total	4.70	3.40	4.31
Over 3.5	80% 8/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	10% 1/10

	FSV Mainz 05	1899 Hoffenheim	League
Corners
Corners won	4.78	5.30
Corners conceded	3.33	5.70
Match total	8.11	11.00	9.73
Over 8.5	44% 4/9	90% 9/10
Over 9.5	33% 3/9	80% 8/10
Over 10.5	22% 2/9	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	2.50	2.00
Opponent cards	2.10	1.40
Match total	4.60	3.40	4.31
Over 3.5	80% 8/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	10% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Sascha Stegemann Germany · 84 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.27league 4.12

Red cards0.19league 0.20

Cards 5+48%league 42%

Fouls23.5league 22.1

Penalties0.17league 0.37

Home wins35%league 46%

FSV Mainz 058 with this referee

Record5-0-3 Cards · opp.1.5 · 2.1 Pens for · against1 · 0

W7 Mar 25A · Borussia Mönchengladbach3–11
W24 Nov 24A · Holstein Kiel3–00
L21 Oct 23H · Bayern München1–33
W4 Mar 23H · 1899 Hoffenheim1–01
L25 Jan 23H · Borussia Dortmund1–22

1899 Hoffenheim8 with this referee

Record1-2-5 Cards · opp.2.3 · 1.8 Pens for · against0 · 1

L19 Apr 25A · SC Freiburg2–32
D26 Jan 25H · Eintracht Frankfurt2–23
L2 Nov 24H · FC St. Pauli0–20
L16 Mar 24H · VfB Stuttgart0–31
L20 Jan 24A · SC Freiburg2–33

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.