FSV Mainz 05
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
FSV Mainz 05 were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. FSV Mainz 05 had 5.9 days of rest, Werder Bremen 7.8 and had to travel 346 km.
Away travel346 kmRest days5.9 · 7.8Matches / 14d1 · 1
FSV Mainz 0544%
Draw25%
Werder Bremen31%
FSV Mainz 0542%
Draw27%
Werder Bremen31%
FSV Mainz 0543%
Draw26%
Werder Bremen31%
FSV Mainz 0536%
Draw26%
Werder Bremen38%
FSV Mainz 0543%
Draw27%
Werder Bremen31%
Over 2.5 57%
Both score 60%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Mainz)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyFlorian Badstubner
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.27
- Matches 59
Team strength
FSV Mainz 05
Werder Bremen
51
L90 StrengthIn forecast
54
55
Current StrengthIn forecast
43
68
AttackIn forecast
56
56
DefenceIn forecast
45
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisWerder Bremen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FSV Mainz 05Werder Bremen
1.13
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
1.23
xGVia Att/Def
1.18
1.66
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.90
-0.10
Goals minus xGContext
+0.32
50%
Scored inContext
75%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
38%
12.63
ShotsContext
12.13
2.88
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
23%
On target shareContext
37%
9.50
Shots in the boxContext
7.38
75%
Box shareContext
61%
9%
ConversionContext
12%
3.57
OffsidesContext
1.83
15.38
Shots allowedContext
17.00
5.13
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.88
3.75
BlocksContext
4.75
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.63
59%
Save rateContext
62%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
394
PassesContext
452
303
Accurate passesContext
368
77%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.70
Team ratingContext
6.74
11.38
FoulsContext
8.88
13.00
Fouls sufferedContext
9.75
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.63
0.25
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.46
xGVia Att/Def
1.34
1.38
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.78
+0.04
Goals minus xGContext
+0.26
70%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
13.70
ShotsContext
13.10
3.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.90
26%
On target shareContext
37%
10.00
Shots in the boxContext
8.90
73%
Box shareContext
66%
11%
ConversionContext
12%
3.44
OffsidesContext
1.86
12.60
Shots allowedContext
17.00
4.89
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.80
3.44
BlocksContext
4.90
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
61%
Save rateContext
69%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
409
PassesContext
455
319
Accurate passesContext
373
78%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.85
11.60
FoulsContext
8.80
12.30
Fouls sufferedContext
10.20
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
FSV Mainz 05
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km297 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Werder Bremen
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel346 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| FSV Mainz 05 |
Werder Bremen |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.9Bundesliga 2025-2026, 26 Oct | 7.8Bundesliga 2025-2026, 24 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 346 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 297 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.2 | 6.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
FSV Mainz 05
Confirmed XI
27R. Zentner(G)
31D. Kohr
15L. Maloney
25A. Hanche-Olsen
30S. Widmer
10N. Amiri
6K. Sano
2P. Mwene
17B. Hollerbach
8P. Nebel
7J. Lee
Werder Bremen
Confirmed XI
30M. Backhaus(G)
32M. Friedl
31Karim Coulibaly
5A. Pieper
3Y. Sugawara
14S. Lynen
6J. Stage
7S. Mbangula
20R. Schmid
17M. Grüll
44V. Boniface
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences FSV Mainz 05
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Werder Bremen
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- FSV Mainz 05+0.8 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Werder Bremen-0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
FSV Mainz 05 · Home
0.00points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-4
- Scored
- 0.75
- Conceded
- 2.00
Werder Bremen · Away
1.00points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-2
- Scored
- 1.75
- Conceded
- 2.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | FSV Mainz 05 | Werder Bremen |
|---|---|---|
| Bayer Leverkusen | L 3–4 H | D 3–3 H |
| Points | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game | 1 of 3 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
1 FSV Mainz 05 wins1 draws4 Werder Bremen wins
Goals per game0.83 – 1.67
Over 2.550%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets17% · 50%
- 31 Jan 2025Werder Bremen1–0FSV Mainz 05
- 15 Sep 2024FSV Mainz 051–2Werder Bremen
- 3 Feb 2024FSV Mainz 050–1Werder Bremen
- 2 Sep 2023Werder Bremen4–0FSV Mainz 05
- 8 Apr 2023FSV Mainz 052–2Werder Bremen
- 15 Oct 2022Werder Bremen0–2FSV Mainz 05
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| FSV Mainz 05 | Werder Bremen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.13 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.13 | 3.50 | 2.95 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 75% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 38% | 63% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 38% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 38% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 25% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
| FSV Mainz 05 | Werder Bremen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.13 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.13 | 3.50 | 2.95 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 75% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 38% | 63% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 38% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 38% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 25% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| FSV Mainz 05 | Werder Bremen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.25 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.63 | 7.80 | |
| Match total | 8.88 | 11.80 | 9.78 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 4/8 | 100% 5/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 4/8 | 100% 5/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 2/8 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.88 | 2.75 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.25 | |
| Match total | 4.88 | 4.00 | 4.43 |
| Over 3.5 | 75% 6/8 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 4/8 | 25% 2/8 | |
| FSV Mainz 05 | Werder Bremen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.90 | 4.86 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.40 | 7.00 | |
| Match total | 9.30 | 11.86 | 9.78 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 100% 7/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 100% 7/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 4.40 | 4.00 | 4.43 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Florian Badstubner Germany · 59 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.66league 4.23
Red cards0.19league 0.22
Cards 5+34%league 44%
Fouls22.7league 22.6
Penalties0.27league 0.40
Home wins51%league 42%
FSV Mainz 055 with this referee
Record3-1-1
Cards · opp.1.4 · 1.2
Pens for · against1 · 1
Reds1
- W21 Dec 24A · Eintracht Frankfurt3–12
- W9 Nov 24H · Borussia Dortmund3–13
- L4 Feb 23A · Union Berlin1–21
- D16 Apr 22H · VfB Stuttgart0–00
- W4 Dec 21H · VfL Wolfsburg3–01
Werder Bremen7 with this referee
Record2-2-3
Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.6
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L23 Nov 24A · Eintracht Frankfurt0–12
- D26 Oct 24H · Bayer Leverkusen2–21
- D24 Feb 24H · SV Darmstadt 981–13
- L14 May 23A · RB Leipzig1–24
- L16 Apr 23H · SC Freiburg1–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
FSV Mainz 058 games · scored 9 · conceded 16
1
4
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
4
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
2
4
76-90
Werder Bremen8 games · scored 12 · conceded 16
2
1
0-15
1
3
16-30
1
3
31-45
2
2
46-60
3
5
61-75
3
2
76-90
FSV Mainz 0510 games · scored 15 · conceded 16
1
4
0-15
3
2
16-30
4
5
31-45
2
1
46-60
3
1
61-75
2
3
76-90
Werder Bremen10 games · scored 16 · conceded 17
3
1
0-15
1
3
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
2
46-60
4
5
61-75
4
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
