Fulham
Attack+31%
Defense risk−33%
Our take
Fulham were clear favourites.
Fulham were the stronger side on L90 Strength (64 vs 38). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Hull City. Fulham were without A. Robinson. Hull City were without C. Hughes. Fulham had 7 days of rest, Hull City 6 and had to travel 249 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel249 kmRest days7 · 6Matches / 14d1 · 1
Fulham63%
Draw20%
Hull City17%
Fulham60%
Draw23%
Hull City17%
Fulham62%
Draw20%
Hull City17%
Fulham55%
Draw22%
Hull City23%
Fulham61%
Draw21%
Hull City18%
Over 2.5 67%
Both score 62%
Likeliest score 2–1
Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (London)
14°CPartly cloudy
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 17 km/h
- Humidity 55%
RefereeChris Kavanagh
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.22
- Matches 174
Team strength
Fulham
Hull City
64
L90 StrengthIn forecast
38
65
Current StrengthIn forecast
37
66
AttackIn forecast
37
68
DefenceIn forecast
50
25
Form indexContext
61
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisHull City
Attack+15%
Defense risk−6%
Both teams face a more favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.
Playing style
FulhamHull City
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.33
1.67
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.60
xGVia Att/Def
1.12
1.72
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.52
-0.60
Goals minus xGContext
+0.21
67%
Scored inContext
83%
17%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
14.17
ShotsContext
11.67
5.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
32%
On target shareContext
34%
10.67
Shots in the boxContext
6.40
74%
Box shareContext
50%
7%
ConversionContext
11%
1.00
OffsidesContext
1.25
15.67
Shots allowedContext
14.00
4.83
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.67
5.00
BlocksContext
4.00
3.17
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
66%
Save rateContext
75%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
33%
539
PassesContext
285
459
Accurate passesContext
207
85%
Pass accuracyContext
73%
6.75
Team ratingContext
6.82
10.00
FoulsContext
10.83
8.00
Fouls sufferedContext
6.67
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
3.17
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
1.47
xGVia Att/Def
1.20
1.61
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.19
-0.57
Goals minus xGContext
+0.10
60%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
14.30
ShotsContext
11.20
4.56
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.20
29%
On target shareContext
38%
9.80
Shots in the boxContext
7.00
68%
Box shareContext
56%
6%
ConversionContext
12%
1.13
OffsidesContext
1.43
14.00
Shots allowedContext
13.10
4.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.30
4.11
BlocksContext
3.70
3.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.20
67%
Save rateContext
74%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
36%
520
PassesContext
283
442
Accurate passesContext
197
85%
Pass accuracyContext
70%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.84
10.50
FoulsContext
10.00
10.20
Fouls sufferedContext
8.60
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.60
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Fulham
LLDDL
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km215 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 25 · 2 pts vs 5.1 for an average club · -4.4 vs expected
Hull City
WDDLD
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel249 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 61 · 6 pts vs 4.8 for an average club · +1.9 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Fulham |
Hull City |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Premier League 2026-2027, 10 Oct | 6Premier League 2026-2027, 11 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 249 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 215 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 2 | 1 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Fulham
Confirmed XI
1B. Leno(G)
33A. Robinson
3C. Bassey
22D. Affengruber
21T. Castagne
19S. Charles
16S. Berge
17A. Iwobi
24J. King
14O. Bobb
7Gonzalo García
Hull City
Confirmed XI
19K. Tzolakis(G)
18B. Norton-Cuffy
22L. Herrington
15J. Egan
6S. Ajayi
2L. Coyle
7B. Thomas
27R. Slater
25M. Crooks
10M. Belloumi
9O. McBurnie
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Fulham
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals
Attack line −1.4% · Defence line −11.9% of weighted minutes
- DEF A. Robinson Starter 6.80 Def −11.1%
- MID T. Cairney Rotation 6.86 Att −1.4% Def −0.8%
Hull City
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.05 goals
Attack line −5.6% · Defence line −10.5% of weighted minutes
- DEF C. Hughes Starter 7.00 Def −9.2%
- MID L. Gourna-Douath Rotation 6.63 Att −2.0% Def −0.9%
- ATT M. Cho Rotation 6.77 Att −2.5%
- MID D. Gyabi Rotation 6.62 Att −1.1% Def −0.5%
Total impact vs full squads
- Fulham+0.4 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Hull City-0.1 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Fulham · Home
0.33points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-2
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 2.33
Hull City · Away
1.33points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-1
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 1.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Fulham | Hull City |
|---|---|---|
| Manchester United | D 1–1 H | W 2–0 H |
| Chelsea | L 2–3 H | D 2–2 A |
| Points | 1 of 6 · 0.50 per game | 4 of 6 · 2.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
2 Fulham wins0 draws0 Hull City wins
Goals per game1.50 – 0.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets100% · 0%
- 12 Feb 2022Hull City0–1Fulham
- 21 Aug 2021Fulham2–0Hull City
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Fulham | Hull City | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.67 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.67 | 2.33 | 3.44 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 67% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 50% | 62% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 17% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Fulham | Hull City | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.90 | 1.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 2.33 | 3.44 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 50% | 67% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 62% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 17% | |
| Games | 10 | 6 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Fulham | Hull City | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.67 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.67 | 6.00 | |
| Match total | 10.34 | 10.00 | 9.47 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 3/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 3/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 2/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 3.17 | |
| Opponent cards | 0.67 | 0.67 | |
| Match total | 2.67 | 3.84 | 4.08 |
| Over 3.5 | 33% 2/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 2/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Fulham | Hull City | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.10 | 4.78 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.20 | 5.67 | |
| Match total | 10.30 | 10.45 | 9.47 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.00 | 1.10 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 3.70 | 4.08 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Chris Kavanagh 174 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.94league 3.89
Red cards0.14league 0.15
Cards 5+40%league 43%
Fouls22.1league 23.0
Penalties0.22league 0.16
Home wins40%league 38%
Fulham11 with this referee
Record4-3-4
Cards · opp.2.7 · 1.6
Pens for · against1 · 2
- W21 Mar 26H · Burnley3–12
- L17 Jan 26A · Leeds0–15
- W27 Dec 25A · West Ham1–03
- D24 Aug 25H · Manchester United1–11
- W6 Apr 25H · Liverpool3–23
Hull CityNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Fulham6 games · scored 6 · conceded 10
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
4
76-90
Hull City6 games · scored 8 · conceded 6
3
0-15
2
16-30
2
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
1
76-90
Fulham10 games · scored 9 · conceded 15
1
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
4
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
4
76-90
Hull City10 games · scored 13 · conceded 9
3
0-15
3
2
16-30
3
31-45
1
1
46-60
4
3
61-75
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
