Fulham
Attack—
Defense risk—
Fulham
15th · 20 pts · 16 played
WWLLW
1–0Full time
Nottingham Forest
17th · 18 pts · 16 played
WLWLW
Our take
Fulham were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Fulham had 9.1 days of rest, Nottingham Forest 8.3 and had to travel 175 km.
Away travel175 kmRest days9.1 · 8.3Matches / 14d1 · 2
Fulham42%
Draw26%
Nottingham Forest32%
Fulham42%
Draw27%
Nottingham Forest31%
Fulham43%
Draw26%
Nottingham Forest31%
Fulham35%
Draw26%
Nottingham Forest39%
Fulham42%
Draw27%
Nottingham Forest31%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 59%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (London)
No weather data yet
RefereeAnthony Taylor
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.28
- Matches 199
Team strength
FulhamNottingham Forest
65
L90 StrengthIn forecast
68
65
Current StrengthIn forecast
70
66
AttackIn forecast
68
68
DefenceIn forecast
74
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisNottingham Forest
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FulhamNottingham Forest
1.44
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.06
1.63
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.56
1.09
xGVia Att/Def
1.25
1.38
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.45
+0.35
Goals minus xGContext
-0.19
81%
Scored inContext
50%
19%
Clean sheetsContext
19%
11.38
ShotsContext
12.31
4.07
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.06
34%
On target shareContext
33%
7.80
Shots in the boxContext
8.19
66%
Box shareContext
67%
13%
ConversionContext
9%
2.21
OffsidesContext
1.92
11.25
Shots allowedContext
12.81
4.31
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.69
3.38
BlocksContext
4.29
3.14
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
70%
Save rateContext
64%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
457
PassesContext
440
381
Accurate passesContext
366
84%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.82
11.75
FoulsContext
11.31
10.63
Fouls sufferedContext
12.53
1.75
Yellow cardsContext
1.63
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
1.12
xGVia Att/Def
1.54
1.41
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.88
+0.48
Goals minus xGContext
+0.16
80%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
12.10
ShotsContext
14.50
4.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.20
35%
On target shareContext
36%
8.22
Shots in the boxContext
9.50
63%
Box shareContext
68%
13%
ConversionContext
12%
2.38
OffsidesContext
2.00
12.00
Shots allowedContext
10.00
4.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.30
3.70
BlocksContext
4.38
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.20
70%
Save rateContext
67%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
473
PassesContext
428
394
Accurate passesContext
354
83%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.82
Team ratingContext
7.00
10.00
FoulsContext
12.10
9.50
Fouls sufferedContext
13.44
1.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Fulham
Rest9.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km583 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Nottingham Forest
Rest8.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel175 km870 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Fulham |
Nottingham Forest |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 9.1Premier League 2025-2026, 13 Dec | 8.3Premier League 2025-2026, 14 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 175 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 583 km | 870 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 4 | 0 / 2 / 6 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.8 | 4.7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Fulham
Confirmed XI
1B. Leno(G)
33A. Robinson
15Jorge Cuenca
5J. Andersen
2K. Tete
16S. Berge
20S. Lukić
22Kevin
32E. Smith Rowe
8H. Wilson
7R. Jiménez
Nottingham Forest
Confirmed XI
13John Victor(G)
3N. Williams
5Murillo
31N. Milenković
37N. Savona
8E. Anderson
12Douglas Luiz
7C. Hudson-Odoi
10M. Gibbs-White
21O. Hutchinson
19Igor Jesus
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Fulham
Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Nottingham Forest
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Fulham-0.2 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Nottingham Forest+0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Fulham · Home
1.63points per game · 8 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-1-3
- Scored
- 1.75
- Conceded
- 1.25
Nottingham Forest · Away
1.00points per game · 8 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-4
- Scored
- 0.75
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | Fulham | Nottingham Forest |
|---|---|---|
| Burnley | W 3–2 A | D 1–1 A |
| Crystal Palace | L 1–2 H | D 1–1 A |
| Tottenham | W 2–1 A | W 3–0 H |
| Sunderland | W 1–0 H | L 0–1 H |
| Everton | L 0–2 A | L 0–3 A |
| Wolves | W 3–0 H | W 1–0 A |
| Newcastle | L 1–2 A | L 0–2 A |
| Arsenal | L 0–1 H | L 0–3 A |
| Bournemouth | L 1–3 A | L 0–2 A |
| Brentford | W 3–1 H | W 3–1 H |
| Leeds | W 1–0 H | W 3–1 H |
| Chelsea | L 0–2 A | L 0–3 H |
| Manchester United | D 1–1 H | D 2–2 H |
| Brighton | D 1–1 A | L 0–2 H |
| Points | 20 of 42 · 1.43 per game | 15 of 42 · 1.07 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
6 Fulham wins0 draws2 Nottingham Forest wins
Goals per game2.25 – 0.88
Over 2.563%
Both scored38%
Clean sheets50% · 13%
- 15 Feb 2025Fulham2–1Nottingham Forest
- 28 Sep 2024Nottingham Forest0–1Fulham
- 2 Apr 2024Nottingham Forest3–1Fulham
- 6 Dec 2023Fulham5–0Nottingham Forest
- 11 Feb 2023Fulham2–0Nottingham Forest
- 16 Sep 2022Nottingham Forest2–3Fulham
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Fulham | Nottingham Forest | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.44 | 1.06 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.63 | 1.56 | |
| Match goals | 3.06 | 2.63 | 2.91 |
| Over 1.5 | 81% | 88% | |
| Over 2.5 | 56% | 56% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 31% | 19% | |
| Both teams scored | 63% | 31% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 19% | 19% | |
| Failed to score | 19% | 50% | |
| Games | 16 | 16 |
| Fulham | Nottingham Forest | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 1.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.80 | 0.90 | |
| Match goals | 3.40 | 2.60 | 2.91 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 70% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 30% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Fulham | Nottingham Forest | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.13 | 5.38 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.31 | 4.75 | |
| Match total | 10.44 | 10.13 | 9.85 |
| Over 8.5 | 75% 12/16 | 81% 13/16 | |
| Over 9.5 | 69% 11/16 | 63% 10/16 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 7/16 | 44% 7/16 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.75 | 1.63 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 1.88 | |
| Match total | 3.25 | 3.51 | 3.85 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 8/16 | 50% 8/16 | |
| Over 4.5 | 38% 6/16 | 25% 4/16 | |
| Fulham | Nottingham Forest | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.30 | 6.13 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.40 | 4.63 | |
| Match total | 10.70 | 10.76 | 9.85 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 88% 7/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.30 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 2.70 | 3.40 | 3.85 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Anthony Taylor 199 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.68league 3.69
Red cards0.15league 0.12
Cards 5+34%league 38%
Fouls21.1league 21.8
Penalties0.28league 0.20
Home wins34%league 48%
Fulham12 with this referee
Record2-2-8
Cards · opp.1.2 · 1.5
Pens for · against1 · 4
Reds1
- L18 Oct 25H · Arsenal0–10
- L20 Apr 25H · Chelsea1–21
- L26 Jan 25H · Manchester United0–10
- L11 May 24H · Manchester City0–43
- L13 Jan 24A · Chelsea0–11
Nottingham Forest12 with this referee
Record2-2-8
Cards · opp.2.4 · 3.1
Pens for · against1 · 1
- D24 Aug 25A · Crystal Palace1–13
- L25 May 25H · Chelsea0–12
- W19 Jan 25H · Southampton3–20
- L10 Nov 24H · Newcastle1–31
- L21 Apr 24A · Everton0–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Fulham16 games · scored 23 · conceded 26
5
0-15
5
16-30
5
5
31-45
4
9
46-60
5
61-75
4
7
76-90
Nottingham Forest16 games · scored 17 · conceded 25
3
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
3
7
31-45
5
4
46-60
2
61-75
3
10
76-90
Fulham10 games · scored 16 · conceded 18
4
0-15
4
16-30
3
3
31-45
3
4
46-60
4
61-75
2
7
76-90
Nottingham Forest10 games · scored 17 · conceded 9
1
2
0-15
2
16-30
2
3
31-45
6
46-60
2
1
61-75
4
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
