Süper Lig Gameweek 12 Sat, Nov 8 · 11:30 Gaziantep Stadyumu, Gaziantep
Gazişehir Gaziantep 6th · 18 pts · 11 played
2–2Full time
Rizespor 11th · 13 pts · 11 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Gazişehir Gaziantep46.4%fair odds 2.15
Draw26.1%fair odds 3.83
Rizespor27.4%fair odds 3.65
Expected goals1.59 – 1.17total 2.75
Likeliest score1–112.4%

Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.

Match Opportunity

How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.

Gazişehir Gaziantep

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

Rizespor

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

About this comparison

The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.

Score matrix

Gazişehir Gaziantep ↓ · Rizespor →0123456+
07.06.84.31.70.50.10.0
19.512.46.92.70.80.20.0
28.09.45.52.10.60.10.0
34.24.92.91.10.30.10.0
41.72.01.10.40.10.00.0
50.50.60.40.10.00.00.0
6+0.20.20.10.00.00.00.0

Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Gazişehir Gaziantep goals, columns Rizespor goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.

Most likely scores

  • 1–112.4%8.05
  • 1–09.5%10.54
  • 2–19.4%10.69
  • 2–08.0%12.47
  • 0–07.0%14.28
  • 1–26.9%14.53
  • 0–16.8%14.68
  • 2–25.5%18.32
  • 3–14.9%20.22
  • 0–24.3%23.04

Winning margin

10.0% Gazişehir Gaziantep by 3+ fair 10.04
14.3% Gazişehir Gaziantep by 2 fair 7.01
22.2% Gazişehir Gaziantep by 1 fair 4.50
26.1% Draw fair 3.83
16.2% Rizespor by 1 fair 6.18
7.7% Rizespor by 2 fair 12.96
3.5% Rizespor by 3+ fair 28.37

Goal distribution

Total goals

7%0
16%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
15%5+

Gazişehir Gaziantep goals

20%0
32%1
26%2
14%3
8%4+

Rizespor goals

31%0
36%1
21%2
8%3
3%4+

LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda

LOAD90EloLambdaChange
Gazişehir Gaziantep win 46.4% 45.9% +0.5 pp
Draw 26.1% 26.6% -0.4 pp
Rizespor win 27.4% 27.5% -0.1 pp
Over 2.5 51.9% 50.4% +1.5 pp
Both teams score 55.4% 54.3% +1.1 pp
Expected goals Gazişehir Gaziantep 1.59 1.54 +0.04
Expected goals Rizespor 1.17 1.14 +0.02

EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.

All markets model probability and fair odds

Result

  • Gazişehir Gaziantep win46.4%2.15
  • Draw26.1%3.83
  • Rizespor win27.4%3.65
  • Double chance Gazişehir Gaziantep or draw72.6%1.38
  • Double chance Gazişehir Gaziantep or Rizespor73.9%1.35
  • Double chance Rizespor or draw53.6%1.87
  • Draw no bet Gazişehir Gaziantep62.9%1.59
  • Draw no bet Rizespor37.1%2.69

Goals

  • Over 0.593.0%1.08
  • Over 1.576.7%1.30
  • Over 2.551.9%1.93
  • Over 3.529.8%3.36
  • Over 4.514.5%6.90
  • Under 1.523.3%4.29
  • Under 2.548.1%2.08
  • Under 3.570.2%1.42

Both teams to score

  • Yes55.4%1.81
  • No44.6%2.24
  • Yes and over 2.543.0%2.33
  • Gazişehir Gaziantep win and yes22.3%4.48
  • Draw and yes19.1%5.22
  • Rizespor win and yes13.9%7.17

Team goals

  • Gazişehir Gaziantep over 0.579.5%1.26
  • Gazişehir Gaziantep over 1.547.1%2.13
  • Gazişehir Gaziantep over 2.521.3%4.69
  • Rizespor over 0.568.9%1.45
  • Rizespor over 1.532.5%3.07
  • Rizespor over 2.511.3%8.82
  • Gazişehir Gaziantep clean sheet31.1%3.21
  • Rizespor clean sheet20.5%4.88
  • Gazişehir Gaziantep win to nil24.1%4.14
  • Rizespor win to nil13.5%7.42

Handicap

  • Gazişehir Gaziantep −1.524.2%4.13
  • Gazişehir Gaziantep −2.510.0%10.04
  • Rizespor +1.575.8%1.32
  • Rizespor +2.590.0%1.11
  • Rizespor −1.511.2%8.89
  • Gazişehir Gaziantep +1.588.8%1.13

Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.

Model track record Süper Lig 2025-2026

All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.

Matches scored100 Favourite won49.0% Avg chance given to result40.4% 1X2 Brier0.588 Over 2.5 called right53.0% BTTS called right48.0%

Calibration · when the favourite was given…

Favourite chanceMatchesPredictedActually won
30–40%1538.2%26.7%
40–50%4643.9%37.0%
50–60%2155.2%66.7%
60–70%1165.9%72.7%
70–80%675.9%83.3%
80%+180.2%100.0%

LOAD90 vs Bookmaker

Compared on the same 76 of 100 scored matches.

LOAD90Bookmaker
1X2 Brier (lower is better)0.59770.5764
Avg chance given to result39.7%41.4%
Favourite won51.3%53.9%

Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 76 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.

Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 100 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.