Genk vs Antwerp – 3 Aug 2025

Belgian Pro League Knockout phase Sun, Aug 3 · 12:30 Cegeka Arena, Genk

Genk 15th · 0 pts · 1 played L

1–1Full time

Antwerp 12th · 1 pts · 1 played D

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

Antwerp were the stronger side on L90 Strength (44 vs 37). Genk had 6.8 days of rest, Antwerp 8.7 and had to travel 78 km.

Away travel78 kmRest days6.8 · 8.7Matches / 14d1 · 1

Genk39%

Draw27%

Antwerp33%

Expected goals 1.39 – 1.27

Genk39%

Draw27%

Antwerp34%

Expected goals 1.40 – 1.28

Genk39%

Draw27%

Antwerp33%

Expected goals 1.39 – 1.27

Genk32%

Draw27%

Antwerp41%

Expected goals 1.24 – 1.42

Genk39%

Draw27%

Antwerp34%

Expected goals 1.40 – 1.28

Over 2.5 50% Both score 55% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Genk)

No weather data yet

Referee · BelgiumLawrence Visser

Cards per match 5.5
Penalties per match 0.13
Matches 24

Team strength

Genk

Antwerp

37 L90 StrengthIn forecast 44

44 Current StrengthIn forecast 26

46 AttackIn forecast 24

50 DefenceIn forecast 19

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Genk

Attack—

Defense risk—

Antwerp

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Genk

Antwerp

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50

1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.70

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

80% Scored inContext 80%

20% Clean sheetsContext 40%

14.40 ShotsContext 11.70

4.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.60

33% On target shareContext 39%

10.10 Shots in the boxContext 7.78

70% Box shareContext 64%

7% ConversionContext 13%

3.38 OffsidesContext 2.33

11.20 Shots allowedContext 9.50

4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.67

2.00 BlocksContext 2.13

2.70 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.67

68% Save rateContext 73%

54% PossessionIn forecast 58%

438 PassesContext 534

353 Accurate passesContext 448

81% Pass accuracyContext 84%

7.01 Team ratingContext 7.15

12.50 FoulsContext 10.30

11.60 Fouls sufferedContext 13.70

1.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.70

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Genk

Rest6.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km323 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Antwerp

Rest8.7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel78 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Genk	Antwerp
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.8Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 27 Jul	8.7Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 25 Jul
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	78 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	323 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 1	0 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	7.2	7.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Genk Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

26T. Lawal(G)

18J. Kayembe 6M. Smets 3Mujaid Sadick 77Z. El Ouahdi

8B. Heynen 24N. Sattlberger

32N. Adedeji-Sternberg 20K. Karetsas 7J. Steuckers

9H. Oh

Antwerp Confirmed XI

5-3-2

91S. Lammens(G)

5D. Foulon 21A. Verstraeten 26R. Bozhinov 33Z. Van Den Bosch 24T. Somers

20M. Doumbia 8D. Praet 10M. Balikwisha

18V. Janssen 7G. Kerk

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Genk Absences are shown before kick-off

Antwerp Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Genk+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Antwerp+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Genk · Home No home games yet this season.

Antwerp · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

1 Genk wins0 draws1 Antwerp wins

Goals per game2.50 – 1.50 Over 2.5100% Both scored50% Clean sheets50% · 0%

26 Dec 2023Genk3–0Antwerp
4 Nov 2023Antwerp3–2Genk

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Genk	Antwerp	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.00
Conceded per game	2.00	1.00
Match goals	3.00	2.00	2.66
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	100%	0%	50%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	100%	100%	55%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	1	1

	Genk	Antwerp	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.00
Conceded per game	2.00	1.00
Match goals	3.00	2.00	2.66
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	100%	0%	50%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	100%	100%	55%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	1	1

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Genk	Antwerp	League
Corners
Corners won	6.00	2.00
Corners conceded	8.00	5.00
Match total	14.00	7.00	9.00
Over 8.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1
Over 9.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1
Over 10.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1
Cards
Cards	2.00	3.00
Opponent cards	2.00	3.00
Match total	4.00	6.00	3.75
Over 3.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 4.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1

	Genk	Antwerp	League
Corners
Corners won	5.80	5.30
Corners conceded	5.00	4.40
Match total	10.80	9.70	9.00
Over 8.5	80% 8/10	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	80% 8/10	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	60% 6/10	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	2.20	1.80
Opponent cards	2.20	2.50
Match total	4.40	4.30	3.75
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Lawrence Visser Belgium · 24 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards5.00league 3.67

Red cards0.46league 0.08

Cards 5+63%league 33%

Fouls22.3league 23.3

Penalties0.13league 0.33

Home wins42%league 50%

Genk2 with this referee

Record1-1-0 Cards · opp.4.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds1

D17 Mar 24A · KVC Westerlo1–12
W16 Sep 23A · Union St. Gilloise2–06

Antwerp1 with this referee

Record0-1-0 Cards · opp.2.0 · 4.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

D18 Aug 23A · OH Leuven1–12

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.