Genk
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Genk39.3%fair odds 2.55
Draw27.3%fair odds 3.67
Antwerp33.5%fair odds 2.99
Expected goals1.39 – 1.27total 2.66
Likeliest score1–113.0%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Antwerp
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Genk ↓ · Antwerp → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 8.2 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 13.0 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.6 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Genk goals, columns Antwerp goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–113.0%7.70
- 1–09.1%11.04
- 2–18.6%11.63
- 0–18.2%12.21
- 1–27.8%12.77
- 0–07.6%13.12
- 2–06.8%14.76
- 0–25.6%17.81
- 2–25.5%18.32
- 3–14.0%25.02
Winning margin
6.9%
Genk by 3+
fair 14.53
11.8%
Genk by 2
fair 8.50
20.6%
Genk by 1
fair 4.85
27.3%
Draw
fair 3.67
18.7%
Antwerp by 1
fair 5.35
9.8%
Antwerp by 2
fair 10.25
5.0%
Antwerp by 3+
fair 19.94
Goal distribution
Total goals
8%0
17%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
13%5+
Genk goals
25%0
35%1
24%2
11%3
5%4+
Antwerp goals
28%0
36%1
23%2
10%3
4%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Genk win | 39.3% | 39.3% | -0.0 pp |
| Draw | 27.3% | 27.2% | +0.1 pp |
| Antwerp win | 33.5% | 33.5% | -0.0 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 49.8% | 50.1% | -0.3 pp |
| Both teams score | 54.7% | 55.0% | -0.3 pp |
| Expected goals Genk | 1.39 | 1.40 | -0.01 |
| Expected goals Antwerp | 1.27 | 1.28 | -0.01 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Genk win39.3%2.55
- Draw27.3%3.67
- Antwerp win33.5%2.99
- Double chance Genk or draw66.5%1.50
- Double chance Genk or Antwerp72.7%1.37
- Double chance Antwerp or draw60.7%1.65
- Draw no bet Genk54.0%1.85
- Draw no bet Antwerp46.0%2.17
Goals
- Over 0.592.4%1.08
- Over 1.575.1%1.33
- Over 2.549.8%2.01
- Over 3.527.8%3.60
- Over 4.513.2%7.59
- Under 1.524.9%4.02
- Under 2.550.2%1.99
- Under 3.572.2%1.39
Both teams to score
- Yes54.7%1.83
- No45.3%2.21
- Yes and over 2.541.7%2.40
- Genk win and yes18.8%5.32
- Draw and yes19.6%5.09
- Antwerp win and yes16.3%6.14
Team goals
- Genk over 0.575.2%1.33
- Genk over 1.540.6%2.46
- Genk over 2.516.5%6.05
- Antwerp over 0.571.9%1.39
- Antwerp over 1.536.2%2.76
- Antwerp over 2.513.6%7.36
- Genk clean sheet28.1%3.56
- Antwerp clean sheet24.8%4.03
- Genk win to nil20.5%4.88
- Antwerp win to nil17.2%5.82
Handicap
- Genk −1.518.7%5.36
- Genk −2.56.9%14.53
- Antwerp +1.581.3%1.23
- Antwerp +2.593.1%1.07
- Antwerp −1.514.8%6.77
- Genk +1.585.2%1.17
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Belgian Pro League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored12
Favourite won33.3%
Avg chance given to result36.4%
1X2 Brier0.642
Over 2.5 called right50.0%
BTTS called right75.0%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40–50% | 9 | 43.0% | 11.1% |
| 50–60% | 2 | 55.8% | 100.0% |
| 60–70% | 1 | 63.2% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 0 of 12 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | — | — |
| Avg chance given to result | — | — |
| Favourite won | — | — |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off.
No verified pre-match bookmaker odds are available for comparison yet.
Latest results
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 12 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.