Genk
Attack—
Defense risk—
Genk
7th · 25 pts · 19 played
LWLDD
First leg1–2
3–5Full time
Club Brugge KV
2nd · 38 pts · 19 played
WLLWW
Our take
Club Brugge KV were slight favourites.
Club Brugge KV were the stronger side on L90 Strength (63 vs 37). Genk had 6.7 days of rest, Club Brugge KV 5 and had to travel 161 km.
Away travel161 kmRest days6.7 · 5Matches / 14d2 · 2
Genk29%
Draw26%
Club Brugge KV45%
Genk29%
Draw27%
Club Brugge KV44%
Genk29%
Draw26%
Club Brugge KV45%
Genk23%
Draw24%
Club Brugge KV53%
Genk29%
Draw27%
Club Brugge KV44%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Genk)
No weather data yet
Referee · BelgiumLawrence Visser
- Cards per match 5.4
- Penalties per match 0.14
- Matches 42
Team strength
GenkClub Brugge KV
37
L90 StrengthIn forecast
63
44
Current StrengthIn forecast
75
46
AttackIn forecast
86
50
DefenceIn forecast
58
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisClub Brugge KV
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GenkClub Brugge KV
1.26
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.63
1.37
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.38
xGVia Att/Def
1.56
1.21
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.04
-0.12
Goals minus xGContext
+0.07
84%
Scored inContext
84%
5%
Clean sheetsContext
37%
15.89
ShotsContext
16.58
5.53
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.11
35%
On target shareContext
31%
9.61
Shots in the boxContext
11.47
59%
Box shareContext
68%
8%
ConversionContext
10%
2.17
OffsidesContext
1.92
11.63
Shots allowedContext
11.26
4.37
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.68
3.18
BlocksContext
2.53
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.18
69%
Save rateContext
79%
64%
PossessionIn forecast
63%
560
PassesContext
560
489
Accurate passesContext
489
87%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.96
Team ratingContext
7.05
10.11
FoulsContext
9.05
13.42
Fouls sufferedContext
11.58
1.21
Yellow cardsContext
1.21
0.05
Red cardsContext
0.05
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.26
xGVia Att/Def
1.61
1.28
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.57
+0.04
Goals minus xGContext
-0.11
70%
Scored inContext
60%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
14.00
ShotsContext
16.40
5.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.20
41%
On target shareContext
32%
8.56
Shots in the boxContext
12.11
59%
Box shareContext
71%
9%
ConversionContext
9%
2.14
OffsidesContext
1.60
13.50
Shots allowedContext
13.20
4.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.60
3.89
BlocksContext
2.40
3.10
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.63
67%
Save rateContext
66%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
520
PassesContext
529
447
Accurate passesContext
460
86%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.86
Team ratingContext
6.94
9.40
FoulsContext
9.30
12.00
Fouls sufferedContext
9.80
0.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Genk
Rest6.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km193 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Club Brugge KV
Rest5 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel161 km139 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Genk |
Club Brugge KV |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.7Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 19 Dec | 5Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 21 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 161 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 193 km | 139 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 5 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 22.1 | 21.3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Genk
Confirmed XI
1H. Van Crombrugge(G)
19Y. Medina
6M. Smets
3Mujaid Sadick
77Z. El Ouahdi
17P. Hrošovský
8B. Heynen
14Y. Sor
38D. Heymans
20K. Karetsas
9H. Oh
Club Brugge KV
Confirmed XI
16T. van den Heuvel(G)
65J. Seys
44B. Mechele
4J. Ordoñez
64K. Sabbe
25A. Stanković
8C. Tzolis
20H. Vanaken
10H. Vetlesen
9Carlos Forbs
17R. Vermant
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Genk
Absences are shown before kick-off
Club Brugge KV
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Genk+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Club Brugge KV+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Genk · Home
1.33points per game · 9 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-3-3
- Scored
- 1.22
- Conceded
- 1.22
Club Brugge KV · Away
1.60points per game · 10 away games
- W-D-L
- 5-1-4
- Scored
- 1.40
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | Genk | Club Brugge KV |
|---|---|---|
| Charleroi | D 2–2 AL 0–1 H | W 1–0 H |
| KVC Westerlo | D 1–1 HW 1–0 A | D 5–5 H |
| Antwerp | L 0–3 AD 1–1 H | L 0–1 HW 1–0 A |
| OH Leuven | W 2–1 HW 2–1 A | W 1–0 A |
| KV Mechelen | L 0–1 H | L 1–2 A |
| Gent | D 1–1 A | W 2–1 HD 1–1 A |
| RAAL La Louvière | D 1–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Cercle Brugge | D 2–2 A | W 2–0 H |
| Dender | W 2–1 H | W 5–1 AW 2–1 H |
| St. Truiden | W 2–1 A | L 2–3 AW 2–0 H |
| Union St. Gilloise | L 1–2 H | W 1–0 H |
| Anderlecht | D 1–1 A | L 0–1 A |
| Zulte Waregem | W 3–2 H | W 1–0 A |
| Standard Liege | L 1–2 A | W 2–1 A |
| Points | 25 of 54 · 1.39 per game | 35 of 54 · 1.94 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
0 Genk wins1 draws2 Club Brugge KV wins
Goals per game0.67 – 2.00
Over 2.567%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets0% · 33%
- 27 Jul 2025Club Brugge KV2–1Genk
- 3 Mar 2024Genk0–3Club Brugge KV
- 28 Sep 2023Club Brugge KV1–1Genk
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Genk | Club Brugge KV | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.26 | 1.63 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.37 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.63 | 2.63 | 2.83 |
| Over 1.5 | 84% | 58% | |
| Over 2.5 | 58% | 42% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 16% | 16% | |
| Both teams scored | 79% | 47% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 5% | 37% | |
| Failed to score | 16% | 16% | |
| Games | 19 | 19 |
| Genk | Club Brugge KV | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 0.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 2.30 | 2.83 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 40% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 40% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Genk | Club Brugge KV | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.63 | 6.76 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.95 | 4.59 | |
| Match total | 9.58 | 11.35 | 9.62 |
| Over 8.5 | 58% 11/19 | 82% 14/17 | |
| Over 9.5 | 42% 8/19 | 82% 14/17 | |
| Over 10.5 | 32% 6/19 | 71% 12/17 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.26 | 1.26 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.79 | 2.32 | |
| Match total | 4.05 | 3.58 | 4.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 58% 11/19 | 42% 8/19 | |
| Over 4.5 | 42% 8/19 | 26% 5/19 | |
| Genk | Club Brugge KV | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.80 | 5.88 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.10 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 9.90 | 10.88 | 9.62 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 0.90 | 1.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 3.20 | 4.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Lawrence Visser Belgium · 42 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.05league 3.78
Red cards0.38league 0.18
Cards 5+64%league 40%
Fouls22.9league 22.8
Penalties0.14league 0.30
Home wins40%league 41%
Genk4 with this referee
Record2-2-0
Cards · opp.2.5 · 2.8
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- W28 Sep 25A · St. Truiden2–12
- D3 Aug 25H · Antwerp1–10
- D17 Mar 24A · KVC Westerlo1–12
- W16 Sep 23A · Union St. Gilloise2–06
Club Brugge KV2 with this referee
Record0-2-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D24 Sep 25H · KVC Westerlo5–51
- D24 Sep 23A · Anderlecht1–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Genk19 games · scored 24 · conceded 26
5
8
0-15
4
2
16-30
3
6
31-45
5
4
46-60
2
2
61-75
5
4
76-90
Club Brugge KV19 games · scored 31 · conceded 19
2
5
0-15
4
3
16-30
3
2
31-45
6
2
46-60
7
2
61-75
9
5
76-90
Genk10 games · scored 13 · conceded 14
2
3
0-15
1
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
3
3
46-60
2
1
61-75
2
3
76-90
Club Brugge KV10 games · scored 15 · conceded 17
1
2
0-15
5
4
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
3
46-60
4
2
61-75
2
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
