Genk
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Genk
7th · 25 pts · 19 played
LWLDD
First leg1–2
3–5Full time
Club Brugge KV
2nd · 38 pts · 19 played
WLLWW
Genk29.3%fair odds 3.42
Draw25.9%fair odds 3.86
Club Brugge KV44.8%fair odds 2.23
Expected goals1.24 – 1.59total 2.83
Likeliest score1–112.3%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Club Brugge KV
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Genk ↓ · Club Brugge KV → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 8.7 | 7.4 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 12.3 | 9.2 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.2 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Genk goals, columns Club Brugge KV goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.3%8.16
- 1–29.2%10.82
- 0–18.7%11.44
- 0–27.4%13.45
- 2–17.2%13.83
- 1–06.7%14.91
- 0–06.5%15.36
- 2–25.7%17.41
- 1–34.9%20.44
- 2–04.6%21.97
Winning margin
4.1%
Genk by 3+
fair 24.21
8.4%
Genk by 2
fair 11.91
16.8%
Genk by 1
fair 5.97
25.9%
Draw
fair 3.86
21.6%
Club Brugge KV by 1
fair 4.63
13.7%
Club Brugge KV by 2
fair 7.30
9.5%
Club Brugge KV by 3+
fair 10.52
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
15%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
16%5+
Genk goals
29%0
36%1
22%2
9%3
4%4+
Club Brugge KV goals
20%0
32%1
26%2
14%3
8%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Genk win | 29.3% | 29.0% | +0.3 pp |
| Draw | 25.9% | 26.7% | -0.8 pp |
| Club Brugge KV win | 44.8% | 44.3% | +0.5 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 53.8% | 50.5% | +3.3 pp |
| Both teams score | 57.2% | 54.7% | +2.5 pp |
| Expected goals Genk | 1.24 | 1.18 | +0.06 |
| Expected goals Club Brugge KV | 1.59 | 1.51 | +0.07 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Genk win29.3%3.42
- Draw25.9%3.86
- Club Brugge KV win44.8%2.23
- Double chance Genk or draw55.2%1.81
- Double chance Genk or Club Brugge KV74.1%1.35
- Double chance Club Brugge KV or draw70.7%1.41
- Draw no bet Genk39.5%2.53
- Draw no bet Club Brugge KV60.5%1.65
Goals
- Over 0.593.5%1.07
- Over 1.578.0%1.28
- Over 2.553.8%1.86
- Over 3.531.5%3.17
- Over 4.515.7%6.36
- Under 1.522.0%4.55
- Under 2.546.2%2.16
- Under 3.568.5%1.46
Both teams to score
- Yes57.2%1.75
- No42.8%2.34
- Yes and over 2.545.0%2.22
- Genk win and yes15.4%6.51
- Draw and yes19.4%5.15
- Club Brugge KV win and yes22.4%4.45
Team goals
- Genk over 0.571.1%1.41
- Genk over 1.535.3%2.83
- Genk over 2.513.0%7.69
- Club Brugge KV over 0.579.6%1.26
- Club Brugge KV over 1.547.1%2.12
- Club Brugge KV over 2.521.4%4.68
- Genk clean sheet20.4%4.90
- Club Brugge KV clean sheet28.9%3.47
- Genk win to nil13.9%7.19
- Club Brugge KV win to nil22.3%4.48
Handicap
- Genk −1.512.5%7.98
- Genk −2.54.1%24.21
- Club Brugge KV +1.587.5%1.14
- Club Brugge KV +2.595.9%1.04
- Club Brugge KV −1.523.2%4.31
- Genk +1.576.8%1.30
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Belgian Pro League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored152
Favourite won44.1%
Avg chance given to result37.6%
1X2 Brier0.625
Over 2.5 called right53.3%
BTTS called right52.6%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 27 | 38.2% | 33.3% |
| 40–50% | 78 | 44.9% | 33.3% |
| 50–60% | 31 | 54.7% | 61.3% |
| 60–70% | 13 | 64.7% | 84.6% |
| 70–80% | 3 | 74.4% | 66.7% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 114 of 152 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6316 | 0.6308 |
| Avg chance given to result | 37.5% | 38.1% |
| Favourite won | 43.0% | 41.2% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 114 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
- ✗OH Leuven 0–2 Cercle Brugge44·27·29
- ✗Antwerp 2–2 Anderlecht39·27·34
- ✓St. Truiden 1–0 KV Mechelen44·27·29
- ✓Club Brugge KV 2–1 Gent62·22·16
- ✓Union St. Gilloise 2–0 Zulte Waregem62·22·16
- ✓KVC Westerlo 2–1 RAAL La Louvière44·28·28
- ✗Dender 0–1 Standard Liege37·28·35
- ✗Charleroi 2–2 Genk32·27·41
- ✗Genk 1–1 KVC Westerlo54·24·22
- ✗Charleroi 1–1 Union St. Gilloise22·25·52
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 152 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.