Genk
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Genk57.5%fair odds 1.74
Draw23.3%fair odds 4.28
Dender19.1%fair odds 5.23
Expected goals1.89 – 1.00total 2.89
Likeliest score1–111.1%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Dender
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Genk ↓ · Dender → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 5.0 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 11.1 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Genk goals, columns Dender goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.1%9.03
- 1–09.9%10.06
- 2–19.9%10.08
- 2–09.9%10.10
- 3–16.2%16.01
- 3–06.2%16.05
- 0–06.1%16.35
- 1–25.3%18.98
- 0–15.0%19.94
- 2–25.0%20.11
Winning margin
16.2%
Genk by 3+
fair 6.19
17.8%
Genk by 2
fair 5.61
23.5%
Genk by 1
fair 4.25
23.3%
Draw
fair 4.28
12.2%
Dender by 1
fair 8.17
5.0%
Dender by 2
fair 19.90
1.9%
Dender by 3+
fair 53.22
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
15%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
17%5+
Genk goals
15%0
29%1
27%2
17%3
12%4+
Dender goals
37%0
37%1
18%2
6%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Genk win | 57.5% | 56.1% | +1.4 pp |
| Draw | 23.3% | 24.1% | -0.7 pp |
| Dender win | 19.1% | 19.8% | -0.6 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 55.2% | 53.0% | +2.1 pp |
| Both teams score | 54.3% | 53.1% | +1.2 pp |
| Expected goals Genk | 1.89 | 1.81 | +0.08 |
| Expected goals Dender | 1.00 | 0.99 | +0.01 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Genk win57.5%1.74
- Draw23.3%4.28
- Dender win19.1%5.23
- Double chance Genk or draw80.9%1.24
- Double chance Genk or Dender76.7%1.30
- Double chance Dender or draw42.5%2.35
- Draw no bet Genk75.0%1.33
- Draw no bet Dender25.0%4.01
Goals
- Over 0.593.9%1.07
- Over 1.578.9%1.27
- Over 2.555.2%1.81
- Over 3.532.8%3.05
- Over 4.516.7%6.00
- Under 1.521.1%4.75
- Under 2.544.8%2.23
- Under 3.567.2%1.49
Both teams to score
- Yes54.3%1.84
- No45.7%2.19
- Yes and over 2.543.2%2.32
- Genk win and yes26.9%3.71
- Draw and yes17.2%5.81
- Dender win and yes10.1%9.89
Team goals
- Genk over 0.584.9%1.18
- Genk over 1.556.3%1.78
- Genk over 2.529.3%3.41
- Dender over 0.563.3%1.58
- Dender over 1.526.5%3.77
- Dender over 2.58.1%12.39
- Genk clean sheet36.7%2.72
- Dender clean sheet15.1%6.60
- Genk win to nil30.6%3.27
- Dender win to nil9.0%11.08
Handicap
- Genk −1.534.0%2.94
- Genk −2.516.2%6.19
- Dender +1.566.0%1.51
- Dender +2.583.8%1.19
- Dender −1.56.9%14.48
- Genk +1.593.1%1.07
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Belgian Pro League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored77
Favourite won44.2%
Avg chance given to result37.7%
1X2 Brier0.623
Over 2.5 called right55.8%
BTTS called right51.9%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 14 | 38.6% | 21.4% |
| 40–50% | 40 | 45.0% | 35.0% |
| 50–60% | 16 | 55.4% | 75.0% |
| 60–70% | 6 | 65.8% | 83.3% |
| 70–80% | 1 | 73.5% | 0.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 39 of 77 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6397 | 0.6478 |
| Avg chance given to result | 37.4% | 37.4% |
| Favourite won | 41.0% | 41.0% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 39 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
- ✓Anderlecht 1–0 Standard Liege57·24·19
- ✗Antwerp 1–1 Cercle Brugge52·25·22
- ✗RAAL La Louvière 0–0 Zulte Waregem43·28·29
- ✗KV Mechelen 1–3 St. Truiden50·26·24
- ✓Gent 2–1 Charleroi59·23·18
- ✗Dender 0–0 RAAL La Louvière38·28·34
- ✗Charleroi 0–2 KV Mechelen36·28·36
- ✓Cercle Brugge 2–4 Gent35·27·38
- ✗St. Truiden 1–2 Genk41·26·33
- ✓Union St. Gilloise 2–0 KVC Westerlo69·20·12
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 77 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.