Genk
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Genk were slight favourites.
Genk were the stronger side on L90 Strength (37 vs 20). Genk usually keep the ball (62% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Genk had 2.8 days of rest, Dender 6.9 and had to travel 100 km.
Away travel100 kmRest days2.8 · 6.9Matches / 14d3 · 1
Genk58%
Draw23%
Dender19%
Genk56%
Draw24%
Dender20%
Genk58%
Draw23%
Dender19%
Genk50%
Draw25%
Dender25%
Genk56%
Draw24%
Dender20%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Genk)
No weather data yet
RefereeMassimiliano Ledda
- Cards per match 2.5
- Penalties per match 0.50
- Matches 2
Team strength
Genk
Dender
37
L90 StrengthIn forecast
20
44
Current StrengthIn forecast
15
46
AttackIn forecast
15
50
DefenceIn forecast
15
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisDender
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GenkDender
1.33
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.22
1.44
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.44
1.24
xGVia Att/Def
0.61
1.18
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.48
+0.09
Goals minus xGContext
-0.39
89%
Scored inContext
22%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
22%
15.56
ShotsContext
8.22
5.44
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.44
35%
On target shareContext
30%
9.78
Shots in the boxContext
5.67
62%
Box shareContext
67%
9%
ConversionContext
3%
1.80
OffsidesContext
2.57
11.00
Shots allowedContext
12.11
4.22
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.44
3.25
BlocksContext
3.00
2.89
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.38
68%
Save rateContext
68%
63%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
536
PassesContext
419
472
Accurate passesContext
326
88%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.97
Team ratingContext
6.72
10.56
FoulsContext
8.78
13.44
Fouls sufferedContext
11.56
1.67
Yellow cardsContext
1.00
0.11
Red cardsContext
0.11
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.22
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.44
1.55
xGVia Att/Def
0.61
1.05
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.48
+0.05
Goals minus xGContext
-0.39
80%
Scored inContext
22%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
22%
15.10
ShotsContext
8.22
5.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.44
36%
On target shareContext
30%
9.88
Shots in the boxContext
5.67
65%
Box shareContext
67%
11%
ConversionContext
3%
2.11
OffsidesContext
2.57
11.00
Shots allowedContext
12.11
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.44
3.50
BlocksContext
3.00
3.11
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.38
74%
Save rateContext
68%
61%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
508
PassesContext
419
444
Accurate passesContext
326
87%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
7.03
Team ratingContext
6.72
10.40
FoulsContext
8.78
13.50
Fouls sufferedContext
11.56
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.00
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.11
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Genk
Rest2.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km1,689 km in 14d
Schedule load28%Moderate
Dender
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel100 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Genk |
Dender |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 28 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 2.8UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 2 Oct | 6.9Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 28 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 100 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,689 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 6 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 13.9 | 14 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
Genk
Confirmed XI
1H. Van Crombrugge(G)
19Y. Medina
6M. Smets
3Mujaid Sadick
27K. Nkuba
8B. Heynen
17P. Hrošovský
32N. Adedeji-Sternberg
20K. Karetsas
7J. Steuckers
99J. Erabi
Dender
Confirmed XI
30G. Dietsch(G)
88F. Ferraro
44L. De Fougerolles
21K. Cools
5L. Marijnissen
22B. Fredrick
24M. Viltard
17N. Mbamba
16R. Květ
77B. Nsimba
90Mohamed Berte
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Genk
Absences are shown before kick-off
Dender
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Genk+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Dender+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Genk · Home
1.00points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-2
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 1.50
Dender · Away
0.25points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-3
- Scored
- 0.50
- Conceded
- 2.25
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 6 this season
| Opponent | Genk | Dender |
|---|---|---|
| St. Truiden | W 2–1 A | L 0–2 A |
| Union St. Gilloise | L 1–2 H | L 0–1 H |
| Charleroi | L 0–1 H | L 1–3 A |
| Anderlecht | D 1–1 A | L 0–2 H |
| OH Leuven | W 2–1 A | L 0–1 H |
| Standard Liege | L 1–2 A | D 1–1 A |
| Points | 7 of 18 · 1.17 per game | 1 of 18 · 0.17 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Genk | Dender | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.33 | 0.22 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.44 | 1.44 | |
| Match goals | 2.78 | 1.67 | 2.89 |
| Over 1.5 | 89% | 56% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 22% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 11% | 11% | |
| Both teams scored | 89% | 22% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 22% | |
| Failed to score | 11% | 78% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
| Genk | Dender | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 0.22 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.44 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 1.67 | 2.89 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 56% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 22% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 11% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 22% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 22% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 78% | |
| Games | 10 | 9 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Genk | Dender | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.67 | 2.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.89 | 4.33 | |
| Match total | 9.56 | 7.22 | 9.62 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 0% 0/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.78 | 1.11 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.78 | 1.89 | |
| Match total | 4.56 | 3.00 | 4.17 |
| Over 3.5 | 78% 7/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 4.5 | 56% 5/9 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Genk | Dender | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.50 | 2.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.70 | 4.33 | |
| Match total | 9.20 | 7.22 | 9.62 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 0% 0/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 1.11 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 1.89 | |
| Match total | 4.40 | 3.00 | 4.17 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Massimiliano Ledda 2 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.00league 3.94
Red cards0.50league 0.22
Cards 5+0%league 44%
Fouls23.5league 22.8
Penalties0.50league 0.31
Home wins100%league 40%
GenkNo previous matches with this referee.
Dender1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- L8 Aug 25A · St. Truiden0–21
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Genk9 games · scored 12 · conceded 13
3
3
0-15
3
2
16-30
3
31-45
3
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
2
76-90
Dender9 games · scored 2 · conceded 13
2
0-15
1
16-30
31-45
3
46-60
1
3
61-75
1
4
76-90
Genk10 games · scored 16 · conceded 12
3
3
0-15
3
2
16-30
3
4
31-45
5
2
46-60
61-75
2
1
76-90
Dender9 games · scored 2 · conceded 13
2
0-15
1
16-30
31-45
3
46-60
1
3
61-75
1
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
