Genk
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Real Betis were slight favourites.
Real Betis were the stronger side on L90 Strength (69 vs 37). Absences weigh more on Genk. Genk had 4.2 days of rest, Real Betis 5 and had to travel 1,761 km.
Away travel1,761 kmRest days4.2 · 5Matches / 14d1 · 1
Genk25%
Draw25%
Real Betis50%
Genk26%
Draw26%
Real Betis48%
Genk26%
Draw25%
Real Betis49%
Genk19%
Draw23%
Real Betis58%
Genk25%
Draw26%
Real Betis50%
Over 2.5 57%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Genk)
No weather data yet
Referee · AzerbaijanElcin Masiyev
- Cards per match 2.0
- Penalties per match 0.00
- Matches 2
Team strength
Genk
Real Betis
37
L90 StrengthIn forecast
69
44
Current StrengthIn forecast
72
46
AttackIn forecast
79
50
DefenceIn forecast
59
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisReal Betis
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GenkReal Betis
0.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
0.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.96
xGVia Att/Def
0.48
1.09
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.87
-1.46
Goals minus xGContext
+1.52
50%
Scored inContext
100%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
15.50
ShotsContext
9.00
3.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.00
23%
On target shareContext
33%
12.00
Shots in the boxContext
4.50
75%
Box shareContext
50%
3%
ConversionContext
22%
3.50
OffsidesContext
—
9.50
Shots allowedContext
14.50
3.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.50
—
BlocksContext
5.00
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
71%
Save rateContext
71%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
483
PassesContext
464
422
Accurate passesContext
414
88%
Pass accuracyContext
89%
7.09
Team ratingContext
6.89
11.00
FoulsContext
15.50
14.00
Fouls sufferedContext
12.50
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
3.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
1.66
xGVia Att/Def
1.07
1.15
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.09
-0.36
Goals minus xGContext
+0.73
80%
Scored inContext
100%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
15.80
ShotsContext
13.90
4.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.20
31%
On target shareContext
30%
9.89
Shots in the boxContext
8.50
61%
Box shareContext
58%
8%
ConversionContext
13%
2.25
OffsidesContext
2.13
10.00
Shots allowedContext
11.60
4.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.80
2.88
BlocksContext
3.00
3.11
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.22
72%
Save rateContext
81%
62%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
528
PassesContext
497
459
Accurate passesContext
429
87%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
7.02
Team ratingContext
6.95
11.70
FoulsContext
10.40
14.40
Fouls sufferedContext
13.40
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Genk
Rest4.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km323 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Real Betis
Rest5 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel1,761 km1,167 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Genk |
Real Betis |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Moderate · 20 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4.2Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 19 Oct | 5La Liga 2025-2026, 18 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,761 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 323 km | 1,167 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 5 | 1 / 1 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3 | 4.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Genk
Confirmed XI
1H. Van Crombrugge(G)
18J. Kayembe
6M. Smets
3Mujaid Sadick
27K. Nkuba
8B. Heynen
24N. Sattlberger
19Y. Medina
17P. Hrošovský
20K. Karetsas
9H. Oh
Real Betis
Confirmed XI
1Álvaro Vallés(G)
12R. Rodríguez
16Valentín Gómez
5Marc Bartra
24Aitor Ruibal
6Sergi Altimira
18Nelson Alexander Deossa Suarez
17Rodrigo Riquelme
20G. Lo Celso
7Antony
11C. Bakambu
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Genk
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Real Betis
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Genk-1.2 pp
- Draw-0.5 pp
- Real Betis+1.7 pp
Home / Away this season
Genk · Home
0.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Real Betis · Away
3.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Genk | Real Betis | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.50 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.50 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 1.00 | 3.00 | 2.95 |
| Over 1.5 | 0% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 50% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 50% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Genk | Real Betis | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 2.90 | 2.95 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Genk | Real Betis | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.50 | 3.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.50 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 7.00 | 7.50 | 9.33 |
| Over 8.5 | 0% 0/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 3.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 4.50 | 4.22 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 1/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Genk | Real Betis | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.50 | 5.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.50 | 5.70 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 10.80 | 9.33 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.10 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 4.90 | 4.50 | 4.22 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Elcin Masiyev Azerbaijan · 2 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.00league 4.08
Red cards0.00league 0.14
Cards 5+0%league 42%
Fouls23.0league 25.7
Penalties0.00league 0.36
Home wins0%league 42%
GenkNo previous matches with this referee.
Real BetisNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Genk2 games · scored 1 · conceded 1
0-15
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
61-75
76-90
Real Betis2 games · scored 4 · conceded 2
1
0-15
2
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
61-75
1
76-90
Genk10 games · scored 13 · conceded 13
2
4
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
4
31-45
5
2
46-60
1
61-75
3
1
76-90
Real Betis10 games · scored 18 · conceded 11
2
4
0-15
2
2
16-30
4
1
31-45
3
2
46-60
3
1
61-75
4
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
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