Genoa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
AC Milan were the stronger side on L90 Strength (63 vs 36). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Genoa. Genoa had 6.9 days of rest, AC Milan 6.6 and had to travel 119 km.
Away travel119 kmRest days6.9 · 6.6Matches / 14d1 · 2
Genoa35%
Draw30%
AC Milan35%
Genoa28%
Draw27%
AC Milan45%
Genoa34%
Draw30%
AC Milan36%
Genoa29%
Draw30%
AC Milan42%
Genoa36%
Draw29%
AC Milan35%
Over 2.5 39%
Both score 46%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Genova)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalySimone Sozza
- Cards per match 4.3
- Penalties per match 0.46
- Matches 94
Team strength
Genoa
AC Milan
36
L90 StrengthIn forecast
63
29
Current StrengthIn forecast
66
23
AttackIn forecast
72
44
DefenceIn forecast
69
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAC Milan
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GenoaAC Milan
1.11
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.39
1.33
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.89
1.12
xGVia Att/Def
1.47
1.23
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.02
-0.01
Goals minus xGContext
-0.08
61%
Scored inContext
81%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
42%
11.17
ShotsContext
12.83
3.81
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.37
34%
On target shareContext
33%
6.94
Shots in the boxContext
8.74
60%
Box shareContext
66%
10%
ConversionContext
11%
1.77
OffsidesContext
2.03
12.78
Shots allowedContext
10.89
4.44
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.74
4.42
BlocksContext
3.29
3.32
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.03
70%
Save rateContext
80%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
374
PassesContext
484
301
Accurate passesContext
425
81%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.97
12.39
FoulsContext
9.75
14.64
Fouls sufferedContext
11.44
1.67
Yellow cardsContext
1.56
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.08
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.04
xGVia Att/Def
1.16
1.10
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.01
-0.24
Goals minus xGContext
-0.26
40%
Scored inContext
50%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
10.80
ShotsContext
12.30
3.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.67
31%
On target shareContext
27%
6.10
Shots in the boxContext
7.50
56%
Box shareContext
59%
7%
ConversionContext
7%
1.29
OffsidesContext
1.88
11.70
Shots allowedContext
11.60
3.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.90
3.60
BlocksContext
3.20
3.57
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.90
76%
Save rateContext
74%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
378
PassesContext
475
305
Accurate passesContext
414
81%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.87
10.00
FoulsContext
9.80
14.80
Fouls sufferedContext
11.40
1.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Genoa
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km393 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
AC Milan
Rest6.6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel119 km283 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Genoa |
AC Milan |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9Serie A 2025-2026, 10 May | 6.6Serie A 2025-2026, 10 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 119 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 393 km | 283 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.4 | 7.4 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Genoa
Confirmed XI
16J. Bijlow(G)
22J. Vásquez
34S. Otoa
27A. Marcandalli
77M. Ellertsson
17R. Malinovskyi
4Alexsandro Amorim
32M. Frendrup
9Vítinha
8T. Baldanzi
29L. Colombo
AC Milan
Confirmed XI
16M. Maignan(G)
31S. Pavlović
46M. Gabbia
23O. Tomori
33D. Bartesaghi
12A. Rabiot
30A. Jashari
19Y. Fofana
24Z. Athekame
18C. Nkunku
7S. Giménez
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Genoa
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
AC Milan
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Genoa+0.9 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- AC Milan-0.8 pp
Home / Away this season
Genoa · Home
1.22points per game · 18 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-4-8
- Scored
- 1.17
- Conceded
- 1.33
AC Milan · Away
1.94points per game · 18 away games
- W-D-L
- 10-5-3
- Scored
- 1.44
- Conceded
- 0.72
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Genoa | AC Milan |
|---|---|---|
| Fiorentina | D 0–0 AD 2–2 H | D 1–1 AW 2–1 H |
| Atalanta | D 0–0 AL 0–1 H | L 2–3 HD 1–1 A |
| Como | L 0–2 HD 1–1 A | D 1–1 HW 3–1 A |
| Pisa | W 2–1 AD 1–1 H | W 2–1 AD 2–2 H |
| Sassuolo | W 2–1 HW 2–1 A | L 0–2 AD 2–2 H |
| Juventus | L 0–2 AL 0–1 H | D 0–0 HD 0–0 A |
| Udinese | L 0–2 HW 2–1 A | L 0–3 HW 3–0 A |
| Verona | W 2–0 AW 2–1 H | W 1–0 AW 3–0 H |
| AS Roma | W 2–1 HL 1–3 A | D 1–1 AW 1–0 H |
| Inter | L 0–2 AL 1–2 H | W 1–0 HW 1–0 A |
| Torino | W 3–0 HL 1–2 A | W 3–2 HW 3–2 A |
| Cremonese | D 0–0 AL 0–2 H | W 2–0 AL 1–2 H |
| Napoli | L 2–3 HL 1–2 A | L 0–1 AW 2–1 H |
| Lazio | L 2–3 AL 0–3 H | L 0–1 AW 1–0 H |
| Bologna | W 3–2 HL 1–2 A | W 3–0 AW 1–0 H |
| Parma | D 0–0 AD 0–0 H | L 0–1 HD 2–2 A |
| Cagliari | W 3–0 HD 3–3 A | W 1–0 A |
| Lecce | D 0–0 H | W 1–0 HW 2–0 A |
| Points | 40 of 105 · 1.14 per game | 66 of 105 · 1.89 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
0 Genoa wins3 draws4 AC Milan wins
Goals per game0.71 – 1.71
Over 2.543%
Both scored43%
Clean sheets14% · 57%
- 8 Jan 2026AC Milan1–1Genoa
- 5 May 2025Genoa1–2AC Milan
- 15 Dec 2024AC Milan0–0Genoa
- 5 May 2024AC Milan3–3Genoa
- 7 Oct 2023Genoa0–1AC Milan
- 15 Apr 2022AC Milan2–0Genoa
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Genoa | AC Milan | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.11 | 1.39 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.33 | 0.89 | |
| Match goals | 2.44 | 2.28 | 2.24 |
| Over 1.5 | 78% | 64% | |
| Over 2.5 | 53% | 42% | 39% |
| Over 3.5 | 17% | 19% | |
| Both teams scored | 53% | 44% | 46% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 42% | |
| Failed to score | 39% | 19% | |
| Games | 36 | 36 |
| Genoa | AC Milan | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.80 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 1.90 | 2.10 | 2.24 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 30% | 39% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 20% | 46% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 60% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Genoa | AC Milan | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.44 | 4.27 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.22 | 4.15 | |
| Match total | 8.66 | 8.42 | 8.67 |
| Over 8.5 | 47% 15/32 | 48% 16/33 | |
| Over 9.5 | 34% 11/32 | 33% 11/33 | |
| Over 10.5 | 16% 5/32 | 27% 9/33 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.75 | 1.69 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.58 | 2.14 | |
| Match total | 4.33 | 3.83 | 3.87 |
| Over 3.5 | 75% 27/36 | 56% 20/36 | |
| Over 4.5 | 42% 15/36 | 33% 12/36 | |
| Genoa | AC Milan | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.60 | 3.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.40 | 3.60 | |
| Match total | 8.00 | 6.80 | 8.67 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 2/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 10% 1/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.10 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.80 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 4.10 | 3.87 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Simone Sozza Italy · 94 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.16league 3.69
Red cards0.14league 0.19
Cards 5+41%league 34%
Fouls24.9league 24.7
Penalties0.46league 0.28
Home wins39%league 39%
Genoa5 with this referee
Record1-4-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.8
Pens for · against3 · 2
- D15 Feb 26A · Cremonese0–00
- D19 Oct 25H · Parma0–02
- D24 Nov 24H · Cagliari2–22
- W6 May 22H · Juventus2–12
- D26 Oct 21A · Spezia1–14
AC Milan7 with this referee
Record3-1-3
Cards · opp.1.6 · 1.9
Pens for · against2 · 2
- D26 Apr 26H · Juventus0–02
- W23 Nov 25A · Inter1–02
- L30 Mar 25A · Napoli1–21
- L22 Feb 25A · Torino1–21
- W11 May 24H · Cagliari5–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Genoa36 games · scored 40 · conceded 48
5
7
0-15
5
8
16-30
6
7
31-45
4
9
46-60
8
10
61-75
12
7
76-90
AC Milan36 games · scored 50 · conceded 32
4
5
0-15
3
6
16-30
12
5
31-45
12
5
46-60
6
6
61-75
13
5
76-90
Genoa10 games · scored 8 · conceded 11
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
3
61-75
3
1
76-90
AC Milan10 games · scored 9 · conceded 12
2
0-15
3
16-30
3
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
61-75
4
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
