Genoa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
AS Roma were slight favourites.
AS Roma were the stronger side on L90 Strength (71 vs 34). Absences weigh more on AS Roma. Genoa had 7.9 days of rest, AS Roma 6.9 and had to travel 402 km.
Away travel402 kmRest days7.9 · 6.9Matches / 14d1 · 2
Genoa24%
Draw28%
AS Roma48%
Genoa23%
Draw25%
AS Roma52%
Genoa23%
Draw28%
AS Roma50%
Genoa19%
Draw26%
AS Roma55%
Genoa24%
Draw27%
AS Roma49%
Over 2.5 43%
Both score 47%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Genova)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyAndrea Colombo
- Cards per match 5.0
- Penalties per match 0.15
- Matches 67
Team strength
Genoa
AS Roma
34
L90 StrengthIn forecast
71
29
Current StrengthIn forecast
71
23
AttackIn forecast
72
44
DefenceIn forecast
75
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAS Roma
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GenoaAS Roma
1.19
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.37
1.44
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.70
1.12
xGVia Att/Def
1.39
1.29
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.97
+0.07
Goals minus xGContext
-0.02
67%
Scored inContext
74%
22%
Clean sheetsContext
44%
11.11
ShotsContext
13.56
3.93
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.70
35%
On target shareContext
35%
7.12
Shots in the boxContext
9.71
62%
Box shareContext
69%
11%
ConversionContext
10%
1.90
OffsidesContext
1.95
13.22
Shots allowedContext
9.37
4.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.65
4.83
BlocksContext
2.67
3.28
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.08
68%
Save rateContext
82%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
374
PassesContext
483
302
Accurate passesContext
405
81%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.93
13.11
FoulsContext
14.04
14.52
Fouls sufferedContext
14.04
1.89
Yellow cardsContext
1.89
0.04
Red cardsContext
0.04
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
0.99
xGVia Att/Def
1.58
1.35
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.72
+0.51
Goals minus xGContext
+0.22
70%
Scored inContext
90%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
11.80
ShotsContext
14.30
4.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.60
36%
On target shareContext
32%
7.40
Shots in the boxContext
10.50
61%
Box shareContext
72%
13%
ConversionContext
13%
1.33
OffsidesContext
2.00
14.90
Shots allowedContext
7.90
4.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.56
5.60
BlocksContext
2.14
3.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
75%
Save rateContext
77%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
414
PassesContext
468
347
Accurate passesContext
394
84%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.91
Team ratingContext
7.04
12.10
FoulsContext
13.20
13.70
Fouls sufferedContext
12.70
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Genoa
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km239 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
AS Roma
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel402 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Genoa |
AS Roma |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.9Serie A 2025-2026, 28 Feb | 6.9Serie A 2025-2026, 1 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 402 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 239 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.8 | 4 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Genoa
Confirmed XI
16J. Bijlow(G)
22J. Vásquez
5L. Østigård
27A. Marcandalli
20S. Sabelli
73P. Masini
32M. Frendrup
77M. Ellertsson
18C. Ekuban
10J. Messias
21J. Ekhator
AS Roma
Confirmed XI
99M. Svilar(G)
19M. Çelik
5O. Ndicka
23G. Mancini
12K. Tsimikas
17K. Koné
61N. Pisilli
2D. Rensch
20L. Venturino
7L. Pellegrini
14D. Malen
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Genoa
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
AS Roma
Scores -0.06 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Genoa+1.3 pp
- Draw+0.3 pp
- AS Roma-1.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Genoa · Home
1.14points per game · 14 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-4-6
- Scored
- 1.21
- Conceded
- 1.29
AS Roma · Away
1.69points per game · 13 away games
- W-D-L
- 7-1-5
- Scored
- 1.15
- Conceded
- 0.77
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Genoa | AS Roma |
|---|---|---|
| Inter | L 0–2 AL 1–2 H | L 0–1 H |
| Torino | W 3–0 HL 1–2 A | W 2–0 AL 0–1 H |
| Cremonese | D 0–0 AL 0–2 H | W 3–0 HW 3–1 A |
| Napoli | L 2–3 HL 1–2 A | D 2–2 AL 0–1 H |
| Lazio | L 2–3 AL 0–3 H | W 1–0 A |
| Bologna | W 3–2 HL 1–2 A | W 1–0 H |
| Parma | D 0–0 AD 0–0 H | W 2–1 H |
| Cagliari | W 3–0 HD 3–3 A | W 2–0 HL 0–1 A |
| AC Milan | D 1–1 A | D 1–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Pisa | D 1–1 H | W 1–0 A |
| Atalanta | L 0–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Udinese | W 2–1 A | L 0–1 AW 2–0 H |
| Verona | W 2–1 H | W 2–0 H |
| Fiorentina | D 2–2 H | W 2–1 A |
| Sassuolo | W 2–1 A | W 2–0 HW 1–0 A |
| Como | D 1–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| Juventus | L 0–1 H | D 3–3 HL 1–2 A |
| Lecce | D 0–0 H | W 2–0 A |
| Points | 27 of 78 · 1.04 per game | 48 of 78 · 1.85 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
1 Genoa wins2 draws4 AS Roma wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.57
Over 2.543%
Both scored57%
Clean sheets14% · 43%
- 29 Dec 2025AS Roma3–1Genoa
- 17 Jan 2025AS Roma3–1Genoa
- 15 Sep 2024Genoa1–1AS Roma
- 19 May 2024AS Roma1–0Genoa
- 28 Sep 2023Genoa4–1AS Roma
- 5 Feb 2022AS Roma0–0Genoa
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Genoa | AS Roma | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.19 | 1.37 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.44 | 0.70 | |
| Match goals | 2.63 | 2.07 | 2.38 |
| Over 1.5 | 78% | 56% | |
| Over 2.5 | 59% | 30% | 43% |
| Over 3.5 | 22% | 15% | |
| Both teams scored | 59% | 30% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 22% | 44% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 26% | |
| Games | 27 | 27 |
| Genoa | AS Roma | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 0.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 2.60 | 2.38 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 30% | 43% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Genoa | AS Roma | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.30 | 4.93 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.74 | 2.96 | |
| Match total | 9.04 | 7.89 | 8.78 |
| Over 8.5 | 52% 12/23 | 37% 10/27 | |
| Over 9.5 | 43% 10/23 | 26% 7/27 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 5/23 | 19% 5/27 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.96 | 1.96 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.48 | 2.33 | |
| Match total | 4.44 | 4.29 | 3.93 |
| Over 3.5 | 78% 21/27 | 63% 17/27 | |
| Over 4.5 | 44% 12/27 | 44% 12/27 | |
| Genoa | AS Roma | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.40 | 4.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.70 | 2.60 | |
| Match total | 9.10 | 7.00 | 8.78 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 0% 0/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.40 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.90 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 4.30 | 3.90 | 3.93 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Andrea Colombo Italy · 67 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.79league 3.75
Red cards0.18league 0.19
Cards 5+55%league 36%
Fouls24.7league 25.2
Penalties0.15league 0.31
Home wins37%league 39%
Genoa4 with this referee
Record1-1-2
Cards · opp.2.5 · 2.8
Pens for · against0 · 1
- W12 Jan 25H · Parma1–02
- L28 Sep 24H · Juventus0–32
- L11 Feb 24H · Atalanta1–43
- D5 Jan 24A · Bologna1–13
AS Roma9 with this referee
Record4-5-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.1
Pens for · against3 · 0
- D15 Feb 26A · Napoli2–21
- D25 Jan 26H · AC Milan1–10
- W5 Oct 25A · Fiorentina2–13
- D6 Apr 25H · Juventus1–11
- D5 May 24H · Juventus1–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Genoa27 games · scored 32 · conceded 39
5
5
0-15
4
6
16-30
5
7
31-45
2
7
46-60
7
8
61-75
9
6
76-90
AS Roma27 games · scored 37 · conceded 19
4
3
0-15
7
16-30
4
4
31-45
4
3
46-60
11
2
61-75
7
7
76-90
Genoa10 games · scored 15 · conceded 12
3
0-15
2
2
16-30
1
3
31-45
1
2
46-60
4
2
61-75
4
3
76-90
AS Roma10 games · scored 18 · conceded 8
1
0-15
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
2
3
46-60
5
1
61-75
6
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
