Genoa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Genoa were slight favourites.
Genoa were the stronger side on L90 Strength (30 vs 20). Genoa had 3.3 days of rest, Cremonese 4 and had to travel 117 km.
Away travel117 kmRest days3.3 · 4Matches / 14d2 · 2
Genoa51%
Draw27%
Cremonese22%
Genoa52%
Draw25%
Cremonese23%
Genoa51%
Draw27%
Cremonese22%
Genoa44%
Draw28%
Cremonese28%
Genoa53%
Draw25%
Cremonese22%
Over 2.5 46%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Genova)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyRosario Abisso
- Cards per match 4.6
- Penalties per match 0.39
- Matches 44
Team strength
Genoa
Cremonese
30
L90 StrengthIn forecast
20
29
Current StrengthIn forecast
20
23
AttackIn forecast
16
44
DefenceIn forecast
30
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCremonese
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GenoaCremonese
0.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.13
1.38
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.25
1.07
xGVia Att/Def
0.87
1.04
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.49
-0.57
Goals minus xGContext
+0.26
50%
Scored inContext
75%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
10.50
ShotsContext
6.63
3.25
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.13
31%
On target shareContext
47%
5.75
Shots in the boxContext
3.86
54%
Box shareContext
54%
5%
ConversionContext
17%
1.50
OffsidesContext
2.57
10.25
Shots allowedContext
16.63
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.50
4.33
BlocksContext
4.75
3.17
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.86
63%
Save rateContext
79%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
380
PassesContext
353
301
Accurate passesContext
277
79%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.69
Team ratingContext
6.74
14.38
FoulsContext
11.25
13.63
Fouls sufferedContext
12.00
2.88
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.09
xGVia Att/Def
0.87
1.09
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.49
-0.19
Goals minus xGContext
+0.43
60%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
10.00
ShotsContext
7.60
3.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.40
34%
On target shareContext
45%
5.80
Shots in the boxContext
4.33
57%
Box shareContext
54%
9%
ConversionContext
17%
1.40
OffsidesContext
2.38
11.00
Shots allowedContext
15.60
5.13
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.30
4.13
BlocksContext
4.20
3.25
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.33
63%
Save rateContext
75%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
377
PassesContext
368
298
Accurate passesContext
292
79%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.72
Team ratingContext
6.76
14.70
FoulsContext
11.30
13.60
Fouls sufferedContext
12.30
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Genoa
Rest3.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km248 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Cremonese
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel117 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Genoa |
Cremonese |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 8 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3.3Serie A 2025-2026, 26 Oct | 4Serie A 2025-2026, 25 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 117 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 248 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.9 | 3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Genoa
Confirmed XI
1N. Leali(G)
3Aarón Martín
22J. Vásquez
5L. Østigård
15B. Norton-Cuffy
73P. Masini
17R. Malinovskyi
70G. Cornet
23V. Carboni
77M. Ellertsson
21J. Ekhator
Cremonese
Confirmed XI
1E. Audero(G)
15M. Bianchetti
6F. Baschirotto
24F. Terracciano
38W. Bondo
22R. Floriani Mussolini
27J. Vandeputte
32M. Payero
4T. Barbieri
90F. Bonazzoli
10J. Vardy
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Genoa
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Cremonese
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Genoa+0.7 pp
- Draw-0.5 pp
- Cremonese-0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Genoa · Home
0.50points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-2
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Cremonese · Away
1.25points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Genoa | Cremonese |
|---|---|---|
| Parma | D 0–0 H | D 0–0 H |
| Como | D 1–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| Points | 2 of 6 · 1.00 per game | 2 of 6 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Genoa | Cremonese | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.50 | 1.13 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.38 | 1.25 | |
| Match goals | 1.88 | 2.38 | 2.53 |
| Over 1.5 | 63% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 38% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 75% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 25% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
| Genoa | Cremonese | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.50 | 1.13 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.38 | 1.25 | |
| Match goals | 1.88 | 2.38 | 2.53 |
| Over 1.5 | 63% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 38% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 75% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 25% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Genoa | Cremonese | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.00 | 2.63 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.25 | 6.63 | |
| Match total | 9.25 | 9.26 | 9.08 |
| Over 8.5 | 75% 3/4 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 75% 3/4 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 1/4 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.88 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.38 | 1.63 | |
| Match total | 5.26 | 4.13 | 4.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 88% 7/8 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 63% 5/8 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Genoa | Cremonese | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.60 | 2.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.60 | 6.30 | |
| Match total | 10.20 | 9.10 | 9.08 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 4/5 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 80% 4/5 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 2/5 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 4.90 | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Rosario Abisso Italy · 44 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.30league 3.91
Red cards0.30league 0.12
Cards 5+50%league 39%
Fouls25.1league 25.7
Penalties0.39league 0.29
Home wins30%league 39%
Genoa2 with this referee
Record0-2-0
Cards · opp.1.5 · 2.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- D13 Mar 22A · Atalanta0–00
- D5 Feb 22A · AS Roma0–03
Cremonese1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 0.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L9 Oct 22H · Napoli1–42
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Genoa8 games · scored 4 · conceded 11
1
2
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
5
61-75
1
2
76-90
Cremonese8 games · scored 9 · conceded 10
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
2
3
31-45
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
3
1
76-90
Genoa10 games · scored 9 · conceded 15
1
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
3
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
7
61-75
1
3
76-90
Cremonese10 games · scored 13 · conceded 13
1
2
0-15
2
16-30
2
4
31-45
2
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
4
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
