Genoa vs Lazio – 28 Feb 2027

Serie A Gameweek 26 Sun, Feb 28 · 17:30 Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Genova

Genoa 17th · 4 pts · 7 played LDLWL

VS— Compare

Lazio 2nd · 19 pts · 7 played WDWWW

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel402 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2

Real contextStrength only

Genoa—%

Draw—%

Lazio—%

Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.

Weather (Genova)

Forecast from 13 Feb

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Team strength

Genoa

Lazio

— L90 StrengthIn forecast —

29 Current StrengthIn forecast 62

23 AttackIn forecast 53

44 DefenceIn forecast 63

24 Form indexContext 87

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Genoa

Attack—

Defense risk—

Lazio

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Genoa

Lazio

0.71 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00

1.86 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.57

0.96 xGVia Att/Def 1.33

1.12 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.33

-0.25 Goals minus xGContext +0.67

57% Scored inContext 100%

0% Clean sheetsContext 57%

11.14 ShotsContext 12.71

2.86 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.29

26% On target shareContext 34%

7.57 Shots in the boxContext 6.86

68% Box shareContext 56%

6% ConversionContext 16%

2.29 OffsidesContext 1.75

15.00 Shots allowedContext 12.43

4.29 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.71

6.17 BlocksContext 3.43

2.83 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.00

61% Save rateContext 85%

45% PossessionIn forecast 48%

380 PassesContext 446

306 Accurate passesContext 381

81% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.56 Team ratingContext 7.06

9.43 FoulsContext 12.00

11.29 Fouls sufferedContext 11.29

2.86 Yellow cardsContext 1.86

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games

0.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.60

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

0.93 xGVia Att/Def 1.15

1.17 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.30

-0.33 Goals minus xGContext +0.45

50% Scored inContext 80%

10% Clean sheetsContext 40%

10.60 ShotsContext 11.90

2.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.60

25% On target shareContext 39%

7.20 Shots in the boxContext 6.40

68% Box shareContext 56%

6% ConversionContext 13%

2.00 OffsidesContext 1.83

13.40 Shots allowedContext 12.20

4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.60

5.38 BlocksContext 3.00

2.75 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.60

60% Save rateContext 78%

48% PossessionIn forecast 48%

395 PassesContext 450

322 Accurate passesContext 388

82% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.62 Team ratingContext 6.92

9.40 FoulsContext 12.00

12.00 Fouls sufferedContext 11.00

2.20 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.20

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Genoa LDLWL

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km239 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 24 · 4 pts vs 7.3 for an average club · -1.6 vs expected

L17 OctA · AS Roma0–20.5 xPts
W10 OctH · Fiorentina2–11.3 xPts
L20 SepA · Parma1–21.2 xPts
D12 SepH · Frosinone1–11.6 xPts
L4 SepH · Como1–41.0 xPts

Lazio WDWWW

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel402 km824 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

Form 87 · 13 pts vs 7.6 for an average club · +5.2 vs expected

W18 OctA · Juventus3–00.7 xPts
W11 OctH · Monza3–12.1 xPts
W19 SepA · Venezia2–02.2 xPts
D12 SepH · AC Milan2–21.5 xPts
W7 SepA · Udinese2–11.3 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Genoa	Lazio
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Serie A 2026-2027, 21 Feb	7Serie A 2026-2027, 21 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	402 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	239 km	824 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	7	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Genoa Last XI · not confirmed

3-4-2-1 · vs AS Roma (A) 0–2, 17 Oct

1J. Bijlow(G)

22J. Vásquez 5L. Østigård 27A. Marcandalli

31D. Puczka 32M. Frendrup 71S. Wiafe 77M. Ellertsson

92S. El Shaarawy 10J. Messias

18M. Osmajić

Lazio Last XI · not confirmed

4-3-3 · vs Juventus (A) 3–0, 18 Oct

35C. Mandas(G)

17Nuno Tavares 25Oliver Provstgaard 37J. Šutalo 15R. Floriani Mussolini

24K. Taylor 21R. Belahyane 16D. Frattesi

10M. Zaccagni 14T. Noslin 11G. Isaksen

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Genoa Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Lazio Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Genoa · Home 1.00points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 1-1-2
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 2.00

Lazio · Away 3.00points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 4-0-0
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 0.25

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings

1 Genoa wins0 draws8 Lazio wins

Goals per game0.56 – 2.22 Over 2.556% Both scored33% Clean sheets11% · 56%

30 Aug 2026Lazio1–0Genoa
30 Jan 2026Lazio3–2Genoa
29 Sep 2025Genoa0–3Lazio
23 Apr 2025Genoa0–2Lazio
27 Oct 2024Lazio3–0Genoa
19 Apr 2024Genoa0–1Lazio

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Genoa	Lazio
Scored per game	0.71	2.00
Conceded per game	1.86	0.57
Match goals	2.57	2.57
Over 1.5	86%	71%
Over 2.5	43%	57%
Over 3.5	14%	29%
Both teams scored	57%	43%
Clean sheets	0%	57%
Failed to score	43%	0%
Games	7	7

	Genoa	Lazio
Scored per game	0.60	1.60
Conceded per game	1.60	1.00
Match goals	2.20	2.60
Over 1.5	70%	80%
Over 2.5	40%	60%
Over 3.5	10%	20%
Both teams scored	50%	40%
Clean sheets	10%	40%
Failed to score	50%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Genoa	Lazio	League
Corners
Corners won	4.43	5.14
Corners conceded	4.57	5.00
Match total	9.00	10.14	9.38
Over 8.5	43% 3/7	71% 5/7
Over 9.5	29% 2/7	57% 4/7
Over 10.5	14% 1/7	43% 3/7
Cards
Cards	3.00	1.86
Opponent cards	1.86	3.29
Match total	4.86	5.15	3.43
Over 3.5	71% 5/7	86% 6/7
Over 4.5	57% 4/7	71% 5/7

	Genoa	Lazio	League
Corners
Corners won	4.40	4.90
Corners conceded	4.10	4.40
Match total	8.50	9.30	9.38
Over 8.5	30% 3/10	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	20% 2/10	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	10% 1/10	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	2.30	2.20
Opponent cards	1.80	2.80
Match total	4.10	5.00	3.43
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.