Como vs AC Milan – 28 Feb 2027

Serie A Gameweek 26 Sun, Feb 28 · 17:30 Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia, Como

Como 5th · 14 pts · 7 played WWLDW

VS— Compare

AC Milan 4th · 15 pts · 7 played DDWDW

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel39 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2

Real contextStrength only

Como—%

Draw—%

AC Milan—%

Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.

Weather (Como)

Forecast from 13 Feb

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

Como

AC Milan

— L90 StrengthIn forecast —

65 Current StrengthIn forecast 66

72 AttackIn forecast 72

67 DefenceIn forecast 69

50 Form indexContext 74

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Como

Attack—

Defense risk—

AC Milan

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Como

AC Milan

1.71 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

1.88 xGVia Att/Def 1.83

1.61 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.19

-0.17 Goals minus xGContext +0.17

71% Scored inContext 100%

14% Clean sheetsContext 29%

21.43 ShotsContext 12.29

6.86 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.71

32% On target shareContext 38%

13.43 Shots in the boxContext 7.83

62% Box shareContext 67%

8% ConversionContext 16%

2.67 OffsidesContext 1.60

14.71 Shots allowedContext 9.57

3.71 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.57

2.86 BlocksContext 2.67

2.57 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

69% Save rateContext 75%

61% PossessionIn forecast 60%

588 PassesContext 583

527 Accurate passesContext 522

90% Pass accuracyContext 90%

7.01 Team ratingContext 6.98

8.29 FoulsContext 9.29

9.57 Fouls sufferedContext 12.00

1.29 Yellow cardsContext 1.86

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games

2.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.90

1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.10

1.88 xGVia Att/Def 1.97

1.41 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.27

+0.32 Goals minus xGContext -0.07

80% Scored inContext 90%

10% Clean sheetsContext 30%

19.00 ShotsContext 13.20

6.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.00

34% On target shareContext 38%

12.10 Shots in the boxContext 9.00

63% Box shareContext 69%

12% ConversionContext 14%

3.20 OffsidesContext 1.86

13.60 Shots allowedContext 11.70

3.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.10

2.70 BlocksContext 3.44

2.67 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.44

69% Save rateContext 78%

60% PossessionIn forecast 57%

571 PassesContext 556

513 Accurate passesContext 498

90% Pass accuracyContext 90%

6.97 Team ratingContext 6.98

9.70 FoulsContext 9.90

11.00 Fouls sufferedContext 11.80

1.60 Yellow cardsContext 1.70

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Como WLDLW

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km459 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 50 · 7 pts vs 7.0 for an average club · -1.9 vs expected

W18 OctA · Fiorentina3–11.8 xPts
L14 OctA · Feyenoord2–31.2 xPts
D11 OctH · AS Roma0–01.4 xPts
L20 SepA · Frosinone0–22.1 xPts
W14 SepH · Parma2–12.4 xPts

AC Milan LWDWW

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel39 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 74 · 10 pts vs 7.1 for an average club · +1.5 vs expected

W18 OctH · Atalanta3–22.1 xPts
W15 OctA · Red Bull Salzburg4–01.4 xPts
D11 OctA · Sassuolo1–11.6 xPts
W20 SepH · Lecce3–02.3 xPts
L16 SepH · Benfica0–21.0 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Como	AC Milan
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Serie A 2026-2027, 21 Feb	7Serie A 2026-2027, 21 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	39 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	459 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	7	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Como Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Fiorentina (A) 3–1, 18 Oct

1J. Butez(G)

3Álex Valle 2M. Kempf 99T. Chalobah 28I. Smolčić

7L. da Cunha 6Luis Milla

8M. Caqueret 10N. Paz 30M. Liberali

9A. Douvikas

AC Milan Last XI · not confirmed

3-4-3 · vs Atalanta (H) 3–2, 18 Oct

16M. Maignan(G)

31S. Pavlović 5K. De Winter 34Mario Gila

22Diego Moreira 14L. Modrić 80Y. Musah 21S. Chukwueze

11C. Pulišić 9Gonçalo Ramos 12A. Rabiot

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Como Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

AC Milan Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Como · Home 2.00points per game · 2 home games

W-D-L: 1-1-0
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 0.50

AC Milan · Away 1.50points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 1-3-0
Scored: 1.50
Conceded: 1.25

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

0 Como wins1 draws3 AC Milan wins

Goals per game1.00 – 2.00 Over 2.575% Both scored100% Clean sheets0% · 0%

18 Feb 2026AC Milan1–1Como
15 Jan 2026Como1–3AC Milan
15 Mar 2025AC Milan2–1Como
14 Jan 2025Como1–2AC Milan

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Como	AC Milan
Scored per game	1.71	2.00
Conceded per game	1.00	1.00
Match goals	2.71	3.00
Over 1.5	86%	100%
Over 2.5	57%	57%
Over 3.5	29%	29%
Both teams scored	71%	71%
Clean sheets	14%	29%
Failed to score	29%	0%
Games	7	7

	Como	AC Milan
Scored per game	2.20	1.90
Conceded per game	1.20	1.10
Match goals	3.40	3.00
Over 1.5	90%	100%
Over 2.5	70%	60%
Over 3.5	50%	30%
Both teams scored	80%	60%
Clean sheets	10%	30%
Failed to score	20%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Como	AC Milan	League
Corners
Corners won	7.29	3.00
Corners conceded	4.57	3.14
Match total	11.86	6.14	9.38
Over 8.5	86% 6/7	0% 0/7
Over 9.5	57% 4/7	0% 0/7
Over 10.5	57% 4/7	0% 0/7
Cards
Cards	1.29	1.86
Opponent cards	2.14	1.43
Match total	3.43	3.29	3.43
Over 3.5	43% 3/7	57% 4/7
Over 4.5	43% 3/7	29% 2/7

	Como	AC Milan	League
Corners
Corners won	5.70	3.70
Corners conceded	4.40	3.10
Match total	10.10	6.80	9.38
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	20% 2/10
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	20% 2/10
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	0% 0/10
Cards
Cards	1.60	1.80
Opponent cards	2.70	1.80
Match total	4.30	3.60	3.43
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.