Genoa
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Genoa50.8%fair odds 1.97
Draw27.0%fair odds 3.70
Lecce22.1%fair odds 4.52
Expected goals1.53 – 0.93total 2.46
Likeliest score1–112.8%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Lecce
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Genoa ↓ · Lecce → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 7.3 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 12.8 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.3 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Genoa goals, columns Lecce goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.8%7.83
- 1–012.5%8.03
- 2–010.0%9.95
- 2–19.3%10.74
- 0–09.2%10.90
- 0–17.3%13.76
- 1–25.6%17.78
- 3–05.1%19.46
- 3–14.8%21.00
- 2–24.3%23.18
Winning margin
10.9%
Genoa by 3+
fair 9.22
15.7%
Genoa by 2
fair 6.35
24.2%
Genoa by 1
fair 4.12
27.0%
Draw
fair 3.70
14.4%
Lecce by 1
fair 6.95
5.7%
Lecce by 2
fair 17.42
2.0%
Lecce by 3+
fair 49.63
Goal distribution
Total goals
9%0
20%1
26%2
21%3
13%4
10%5+
Genoa goals
22%0
33%1
25%2
13%3
7%4+
Lecce goals
40%0
37%1
17%2
5%3
1%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Genoa win | 50.8% | 52.5% | -1.7 pp |
| Draw | 27.0% | 25.1% | +2.0 pp |
| Lecce win | 22.1% | 22.5% | -0.3 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 44.6% | 52.3% | -7.6 pp |
| Both teams score | 48.0% | 53.9% | -5.9 pp |
| Expected goals Genoa | 1.53 | 1.72 | -0.18 |
| Expected goals Lecce | 0.93 | 1.05 | -0.12 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Genoa win50.8%1.97
- Draw27.0%3.70
- Lecce win22.1%4.52
- Double chance Genoa or draw77.9%1.28
- Double chance Genoa or Lecce73.0%1.37
- Double chance Lecce or draw49.2%2.03
- Draw no bet Genoa69.7%1.44
- Draw no bet Lecce30.3%3.30
Goals
- Over 0.590.8%1.10
- Over 1.571.1%1.41
- Over 2.544.6%2.24
- Over 3.523.4%4.27
- Over 4.510.4%9.64
- Under 1.528.9%3.46
- Under 2.555.4%1.81
- Under 3.576.6%1.31
Both teams to score
- Yes48.0%2.08
- No52.0%1.92
- Yes and over 2.535.3%2.84
- Genoa win and yes20.4%4.89
- Draw and yes17.8%5.61
- Lecce win and yes9.8%10.24
Team goals
- Genoa over 0.578.4%1.27
- Genoa over 1.545.4%2.20
- Genoa over 2.520.0%5.00
- Lecce over 0.560.4%1.66
- Lecce over 1.523.7%4.21
- Lecce over 2.56.7%14.85
- Genoa clean sheet39.6%2.53
- Lecce clean sheet21.6%4.64
- Genoa win to nil30.4%3.29
- Lecce win to nil12.4%8.08
Handicap
- Genoa −1.526.6%3.76
- Genoa −2.510.9%9.22
- Lecce +1.573.4%1.36
- Lecce +2.589.1%1.12
- Lecce −1.57.8%12.89
- Genoa +1.592.2%1.08
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Serie A 2025-2026
No finished matches with a forecast in this competition yet.