Genoa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Genoa were slight favourites.
Genoa were the stronger side on L90 Strength (36 vs 24). Genoa had ? days of rest, Lecce ? and had to travel 881 km.
Away travel881 kmMatches / 14d0 · 0
Genoa51%
Draw27%
Lecce22%
Genoa52%
Draw25%
Lecce22%
Genoa51%
Draw27%
Lecce22%
Genoa44%
Draw29%
Lecce28%
Genoa52%
Draw25%
Lecce22%
Over 2.5 45%
Both score 48%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Genova)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyDavide Massa
- Cards per match 4.8
- Penalties per match 0.14
- Matches 86
Team strength
Genoa
Lecce
36
L90 StrengthIn forecast
24
29
Current StrengthIn forecast
28
23
AttackIn forecast
36
44
DefenceIn forecast
30
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLecce
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GenoaLecce
—
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals concededVia Att/Def
—
—
xGVia Att/Def
—
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals minus xGContext
—
—
Scored inContext
—
—
Clean sheetsContext
—
—
ShotsContext
—
—
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
—
On target shareContext
—
—
Shots in the boxContext
—
—
Box shareContext
—
—
ConversionContext
—
—
OffsidesContext
—
—
Shots allowedContext
—
—
On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
BlocksContext
—
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
—
Save rateContext
—
—
PossessionIn forecast
—
—
PassesContext
—
—
Accurate passesContext
—
—
Pass accuracyContext
—
—
Team ratingContext
—
—
FoulsContext
—
—
Fouls sufferedContext
—
—
Yellow cardsContext
—
—
Red cardsContext
—
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.70
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
0.82
xGVia Att/Def
0.90
1.20
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.14
+0.28
Goals minus xGContext
-0.20
60%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
7.90
ShotsContext
13.00
3.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.40
39%
On target shareContext
26%
5.67
Shots in the boxContext
6.30
66%
Box shareContext
50%
14%
ConversionContext
5%
1.43
OffsidesContext
2.00
13.00
Shots allowedContext
13.90
4.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.40
4.00
BlocksContext
3.40
3.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.89
75%
Save rateContext
83%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
378
PassesContext
313
297
Accurate passesContext
235
79%
Pass accuracyContext
75%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.94
13.90
FoulsContext
11.20
13.30
Fouls sufferedContext
10.60
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Genoa
Rest—since last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Lecce
Rest—since last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel881 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Genoa |
Lecce |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | — | — |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 881 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 0 | 0 / 0 / 0 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8 | 6.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Genoa
Confirmed XI
1N. Leali(G)
22J. Vásquez
27A. Marcandalli
15B. Norton-Cuffy
3Aarón Martín
32M. Frendrup
73P. Masini
23V. Carboni
11A. Grønbæk
8N. Stanciu
29L. Colombo
Lecce
Confirmed XI
30W. Falcone(G)
25A. Gallo
44Tiago Gabriel
4E. Gaspar
17Danilo Veiga
10M. Berisha
20Y. Ramadani
29L. Coulibaly
7Tete Morente
22F. Camarda
19L. Banda
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Genoa
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Lecce
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Genoa+0.1 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Lecce+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Genoa · Home
No home games yet this season.
Lecce · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
2 Genoa wins1 draws1 Lecce wins
Goals per game1.00 – 0.75
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets25% · 50%
- 14 Mar 2025Genoa2–1Lecce
- 5 Jan 2025Lecce0–0Genoa
- 28 Jan 2024Genoa2–1Lecce
- 22 Sep 2023Lecce1–0Genoa
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Genoa | Lecce | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | — | — | |
| Conceded per game | — | — | |
| Match goals | — | — | 2.46 |
| Over 1.5 | — | — | |
| Over 2.5 | — | — | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Both teams scored | — | — | 48% |
| Clean sheets | — | — | |
| Failed to score | — | — | |
| Games | 0 | 0 |
| Genoa | Lecce | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | — | — | |
| Conceded per game | — | — | |
| Match goals | — | — | 2.46 |
| Over 1.5 | — | — | |
| Over 2.5 | — | — | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Both teams scored | — | — | 48% |
| Clean sheets | — | — | |
| Failed to score | — | — | |
| Games | 0 | 0 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Genoa | Lecce | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | — | — | |
| Corners conceded | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | |
| Over 8.5 | — | — | |
| Over 9.5 | — | — | |
| Over 10.5 | — | — | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | — | — | |
| Opponent cards | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Over 4.5 | — | — | |
| Genoa | Lecce | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.25 | 5.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.13 | 6.00 | |
| Match total | 9.38 | 11.10 | |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 4/8 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 38% 3/8 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 3/8 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 4.10 | 3.90 | |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Davide Massa Italy · 86 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.60
Red cards0.24
Cards 5+51%
Fouls24.9
Penalties0.14
Home wins35%
Genoa3 with this referee
Record1-2-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.3
Pens for · against0 · 1
- D2 Mar 25H · Empoli1–11
- D15 Dec 23H · Juventus1–12
- W27 Oct 23H · Salernitana1–03
Lecce6 with this referee
Record0-1-5
Cards · opp.1.5 · 2.2
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L3 May 25H · Napoli0–12
- L19 Aug 24H · Atalanta0–40
- L13 May 24H · Udinese0–22
- D6 Jan 24H · Cagliari1–11
- L7 May 23H · Verona0–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
GenoaLecceGenoa10 games · scored 11 · conceded 13
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
4
1
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
5
61-75
2
3
76-90
Lecce10 games · scored 7 · conceded 12
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
1
4
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
1
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
