Genoa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Genoa were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Genoa. Genoa had 5.3 days of rest, Udinese 6 and had to travel 384 km.
Away travel384 kmRest days5.3 · 6Matches / 14d2 · 2
Genoa51%
Draw28%
Udinese21%
Genoa47%
Draw26%
Udinese27%
Genoa51%
Draw28%
Udinese21%
Genoa44%
Draw30%
Udinese26%
Genoa53%
Draw26%
Udinese21%
Over 2.5 40%
Both score 44%
Likeliest score 1–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Genova)
No weather data yet
RefereeGiuseppe Collu
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.25
- Matches 20
Team strength
Genoa
Udinese
38
L90 StrengthIn forecast
33
29
Current StrengthIn forecast
32
23
AttackIn forecast
22
44
DefenceIn forecast
18
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisUdinese
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GenoaUdinese
1.24
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.14
1.38
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.45
1.14
xGVia Att/Def
1.02
1.22
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.32
+0.10
Goals minus xGContext
+0.12
69%
Scored inContext
76%
24%
Clean sheetsContext
21%
11.10
ShotsContext
10.90
3.93
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.57
35%
On target shareContext
32%
7.14
Shots in the boxContext
6.30
62%
Box shareContext
56%
11%
ConversionContext
10%
1.86
OffsidesContext
1.90
12.83
Shots allowedContext
12.62
4.52
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.42
4.73
BlocksContext
3.45
3.19
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.85
69%
Save rateContext
64%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
371
PassesContext
352
298
Accurate passesContext
282
80%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.79
12.90
FoulsContext
13.66
14.86
Fouls sufferedContext
11.62
1.83
Yellow cardsContext
1.86
0.03
Red cardsContext
0.03
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.18
xGVia Att/Def
0.96
1.12
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.43
+0.52
Goals minus xGContext
+0.34
70%
Scored inContext
70%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
12.20
ShotsContext
9.40
4.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.00
36%
On target shareContext
32%
7.70
Shots in the boxContext
5.10
61%
Box shareContext
52%
14%
ConversionContext
14%
1.00
OffsidesContext
2.33
12.20
Shots allowedContext
13.50
3.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.89
4.40
BlocksContext
3.70
2.89
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.44
74%
Save rateContext
71%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
400
PassesContext
347
331
Accurate passesContext
275
83%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.81
12.40
FoulsContext
14.00
14.70
Fouls sufferedContext
11.30
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Genoa
Rest5.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km396 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Udinese
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel384 km559 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Genoa |
Udinese |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.3Serie A 2025-2026, 15 Mar | 6Serie A 2025-2026, 14 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 384 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 396 km | 559 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 16.8 | 16.6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Genoa
Confirmed XI
16J. Bijlow(G)
22J. Vásquez
5L. Østigård
27A. Marcandalli
15B. Norton-Cuffy
17R. Malinovskyi
32M. Frendrup
77M. Ellertsson
9Vítinha
10J. Messias
29L. Colombo
Udinese
Confirmed XI
40M. Okoye(G)
28O. Solet
27C. Kabasele
31T. Kristensen
8J. Karlström
11H. Kamara
14A. Atta
32J. Ekkelenkamp
19K. Ehizibue
9K. Davis
10N. Zaniolo
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Genoa
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Udinese
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Genoa+0.2 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Udinese+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Genoa · Home
1.27points per game · 15 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-4-6
- Scored
- 1.27
- Conceded
- 1.27
Udinese · Away
1.21points per game · 14 away games
- W-D-L
- 5-2-7
- Scored
- 1.21
- Conceded
- 1.64
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Genoa | Udinese |
|---|---|---|
| Verona | W 2–0 AW 2–1 H | W 3–1 AD 1–1 H |
| AS Roma | W 2–1 HL 1–3 A | W 1–0 HL 0–2 A |
| Inter | L 0–2 AL 1–2 H | L 0–1 HW 2–1 A |
| Torino | W 3–0 HL 1–2 A | W 2–1 A |
| Cremonese | D 0–0 AL 0–2 H | D 1–1 A |
| Napoli | L 2–3 HL 1–2 A | W 1–0 H |
| Lazio | L 2–3 AL 0–3 H | D 1–1 H |
| Bologna | W 3–2 HL 1–2 A | L 0–1 AL 0–3 H |
| Parma | D 0–0 AD 0–0 H | W 2–0 A |
| Cagliari | W 3–0 HD 3–3 A | D 1–1 H |
| AC Milan | D 1–1 A | L 0–3 H |
| Pisa | D 1–1 H | D 2–2 HW 1–0 A |
| Atalanta | L 0–1 H | D 2–2 AW 1–0 H |
| Fiorentina | D 2–2 H | W 3–0 HL 1–5 A |
| Sassuolo | W 2–1 A | L 1–2 HL 1–3 A |
| Como | D 1–1 A | L 0–1 A |
| Juventus | L 0–1 H | L 0–1 HL 1–3 A |
| Lecce | D 0–0 H | L 1–2 AW 3–2 H |
| Points | 30 of 84 · 1.07 per game | 36 of 84 · 1.29 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
4 Genoa wins3 draws0 Udinese wins
Goals per game1.29 – 0.43
Over 2.529%
Both scored29%
Clean sheets71% · 29%
- 8 Dec 2025Udinese1–2Genoa
- 4 Apr 2025Genoa1–0Udinese
- 1 Dec 2024Udinese0–2Genoa
- 24 Feb 2024Genoa2–0Udinese
- 1 Oct 2023Udinese2–2Genoa
- 22 Jan 2022Genoa0–0Udinese
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Genoa | Udinese | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.24 | 1.14 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.38 | 1.45 | |
| Match goals | 2.62 | 2.59 | 2.30 |
| Over 1.5 | 79% | 72% | |
| Over 2.5 | 59% | 52% | 40% |
| Over 3.5 | 21% | 24% | |
| Both teams scored | 59% | 55% | 44% |
| Clean sheets | 24% | 21% | |
| Failed to score | 31% | 24% | |
| Games | 29 | 29 |
| Genoa | Udinese | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.70 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 2.50 | 2.30 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | 40% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% | 44% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Genoa | Udinese | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.24 | 4.59 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.68 | 4.67 | |
| Match total | 8.92 | 9.26 | 8.74 |
| Over 8.5 | 52% 13/25 | 48% 13/27 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 10/25 | 44% 12/27 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 5/25 | 41% 11/27 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.48 | 1.79 | |
| Match total | 4.38 | 3.69 | 3.92 |
| Over 3.5 | 76% 22/29 | 52% 15/29 | |
| Over 4.5 | 41% 12/29 | 31% 9/29 | |
| Genoa | Udinese | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.60 | 4.56 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.80 | 5.78 | |
| Match total | 8.40 | 10.34 | 8.74 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.40 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.80 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 4.00 | 3.92 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Giuseppe Collu 20 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.95league 3.74
Red cards0.15league 0.19
Cards 5+30%league 35%
Fouls24.0league 25.2
Penalties0.25league 0.30
Home wins45%league 40%
Genoa4 with this referee
Record0-0-4
Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.5
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L20 Sep 25A · Bologna1–25
- L5 May 25H · AC Milan1–21
- L2 Feb 25A · Fiorentina1–21
- L10 Dec 23A · Monza0–12
Udinese2 with this referee
Record0-0-2
Cards · opp.1.5 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L9 Nov 25A · AS Roma0–21
- L23 Apr 25A · Torino0–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Genoa29 games · scored 36 · conceded 40
5
5
0-15
4
6
16-30
5
7
31-45
3
8
46-60
8
8
61-75
11
6
76-90
Udinese29 games · scored 33 · conceded 42
4
6
0-15
5
6
16-30
6
6
31-45
8
8
46-60
6
7
61-75
4
9
76-90
Genoa10 games · scored 17 · conceded 11
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
3
46-60
5
2
61-75
6
2
76-90
Udinese10 games · scored 13 · conceded 12
2
2
0-15
3
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
3
2
46-60
2
3
61-75
1
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
