Genoa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Genoa were slight favourites.
Genoa were the stronger side on L90 Strength (29 vs 20). Genoa had 7 days of rest, Verona 6.1 and had to travel 198 km.
Away travel198 kmRest days7 · 6.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
Genoa50%
Draw27%
Verona23%
Genoa51%
Draw26%
Verona24%
Genoa49%
Draw27%
Verona23%
Genoa43%
Draw29%
Verona29%
Genoa51%
Draw25%
Verona24%
Over 2.5 44%
Both score 48%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Genova)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyMichael Fabbri
- Cards per match 4.4
- Penalties per match 0.12
- Matches 60
Team strength
Genoa
Verona
29
L90 StrengthIn forecast
20
29
Current StrengthIn forecast
16
23
AttackIn forecast
15
44
DefenceIn forecast
29
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisVerona
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GenoaVerona
0.92
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.58
1.58
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.19
xGVia Att/Def
1.08
1.12
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.08
-0.27
Goals minus xGContext
-0.50
58%
Scored inContext
50%
17%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
11.17
ShotsContext
11.83
3.83
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
34%
On target shareContext
38%
6.83
Shots in the boxContext
7.17
60%
Box shareContext
61%
8%
ConversionContext
5%
2.14
OffsidesContext
2.10
10.33
Shots allowedContext
12.25
4.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.64
3.56
BlocksContext
4.00
2.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.18
59%
Save rateContext
69%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
40%
362
PassesContext
315
285
Accurate passesContext
231
79%
Pass accuracyContext
73%
6.73
Team ratingContext
6.63
14.92
FoulsContext
17.08
14.25
Fouls sufferedContext
8.67
2.75
Yellow cardsContext
2.58
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.60
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.33
xGVia Att/Def
1.17
1.19
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.85
-0.23
Goals minus xGContext
-0.57
70%
Scored inContext
50%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
12.10
ShotsContext
12.10
4.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.70
36%
On target shareContext
39%
7.60
Shots in the boxContext
7.60
63%
Box shareContext
65%
9%
ConversionContext
5%
2.14
OffsidesContext
2.25
10.40
Shots allowedContext
11.30
4.78
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.56
3.14
BlocksContext
3.70
2.78
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.22
58%
Save rateContext
71%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
41%
358
PassesContext
321
284
Accurate passesContext
234
79%
Pass accuracyContext
73%
6.71
Team ratingContext
6.66
15.00
FoulsContext
17.20
14.30
Fouls sufferedContext
8.60
3.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Genoa
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,151 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Verona
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel198 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Genoa |
Verona |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Serie A 2025-2026, 22 Nov | 6.1Serie A 2025-2026, 23 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 198 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,151 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 9.1 | 7.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Genoa
Confirmed XI
1N. Leali(G)
22J. Vásquez
5L. Østigård
27A. Marcandalli
3Aarón Martín
2M. Thorsby
32M. Frendrup
17R. Malinovskyi
77M. Ellertsson
9Vítinha
29L. Colombo
Verona
Confirmed XI
1L. Montipò(G)
6N. Valentini
15V. Nelsson
5Unai Núñez
12D. Bradarić
24A. Bernede
63R. Gagliardini
36C. Niasse
7R. Belghali
25D. Mosquera
17Giovane
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Genoa
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Verona
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Genoa+0.3 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Verona-0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Genoa · Home
0.50points per game · 6 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-3-3
- Scored
- 0.33
- Conceded
- 1.33
Verona · Away
0.50points per game · 6 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-3-3
- Scored
- 0.33
- Conceded
- 1.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 8 this season
| Opponent | Genoa | Verona |
|---|---|---|
| Cagliari | D 3–3 A | D 2–2 H |
| Sassuolo | W 2–1 A | L 0–1 H |
| Cremonese | L 0–2 H | D 0–0 H |
| Parma | D 0–0 H | L 1–2 H |
| Lazio | L 0–3 H | L 0–4 A |
| Como | D 1–1 A | L 1–3 A |
| Juventus | L 0–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| Lecce | D 0–0 H | D 0–0 A |
| Points | 7 of 24 · 0.88 per game | 4 of 24 · 0.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
2 Genoa wins2 draws2 Verona wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.17
Over 2.533%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets33% · 50%
- 13 Apr 2025Verona0–0Genoa
- 1 Sep 2024Genoa0–2Verona
- 7 Apr 2024Verona1–2Genoa
- 10 Nov 2023Genoa1–0Verona
- 4 Apr 2022Verona1–0Genoa
- 25 Sep 2021Genoa3–3Verona
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Genoa | Verona | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.92 | 0.58 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.58 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 2.08 | 2.45 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 58% | 42% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 | 17% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 58% | 50% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 42% | 50% | |
| Games | 12 | 12 |
| Genoa | Verona | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 0.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.80 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 1.90 | 2.45 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 40% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Genoa | Verona | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.75 | 3.75 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.50 | 4.25 | |
| Match total | 9.25 | 8.00 | 8.77 |
| Over 8.5 | 75% 6/8 | 42% 5/12 | |
| Over 9.5 | 63% 5/8 | 25% 3/12 | |
| Over 10.5 | 13% 1/8 | 17% 2/12 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.83 | 2.58 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.42 | 2.08 | |
| Match total | 5.25 | 4.66 | 3.99 |
| Over 3.5 | 92% 11/12 | 75% 9/12 | |
| Over 4.5 | 58% 7/12 | 67% 8/12 | |
| Genoa | Verona | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.17 | 4.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.50 | 3.80 | |
| Match total | 9.67 | 8.10 | 8.77 |
| Over 8.5 | 83% 5/6 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 4/6 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 17% 1/6 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.10 | 2.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 5.50 | 5.10 | 3.99 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 10/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Michael Fabbri Italy · 60 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.07league 3.88
Red cards0.32league 0.12
Cards 5+35%league 39%
Fouls24.1league 25.9
Penalties0.12league 0.31
Home wins35%league 36%
Genoa3 with this referee
Record0-2-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.7
Pens for · against0 · 1
- D7 Mar 25A · Cagliari1–12
- D16 Sep 23H · Napoli2–23
- L15 May 22A · Napoli0–31
Verona5 with this referee
Record0-0-5
Cards · opp.3.4 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds3
- L19 Jan 25H · Lazio0–36
- L6 Jan 24A · Inter1–23
- L14 Jan 23A · Inter0–13
- L15 Aug 22H · Napoli2–52
- L19 Dec 21A · Torino0–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Genoa12 games · scored 11 · conceded 19
2
3
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
1
5
46-60
1
5
61-75
3
2
76-90
Verona12 games · scored 7 · conceded 18
4
0-15
2
3
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
7
76-90
Genoa10 games · scored 11 · conceded 18
2
3
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
1
5
46-60
1
4
61-75
3
2
76-90
Verona10 games · scored 6 · conceded 13
2
0-15
2
3
16-30
2
31-45
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
