Belgian Pro League Knockout phase Sat, Jan 23 · 16:00 Planet Group Arena, Gent
Gent 1st · 22 pts · 8 played
First leg3–0 VS— Compare
Cercle Brugge 17th · 3 pts · 8 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel39 kmRest days5.9 · 6Matches / 14d1 · 1
Real contextStrength only
Gent—%
Draw—%
Cercle Brugge—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Gent)

Forecast from 8 Jan

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Gent and Cercle Brugge. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

GentCercle Brugge
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
46 Current StrengthIn forecast 21
46 AttackIn forecast 24
61 DefenceIn forecast 28
84 Form indexContext 6
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Gent

Attack—
Defense risk—

Cercle Brugge

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

GentCercle Brugge
1.88 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.13
0.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00
1.31 xGVia Att/Def 1.74
0.60 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.68
+0.57 Goals minus xGContext -0.61
100% Scored inContext 63%
50% Clean sheetsContext 0%
12.38 ShotsContext 14.13
5.13 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00
41% On target shareContext 28%
8.00 Shots in the boxContext 10.71
65% Box shareContext 70%
15% ConversionContext 8%
2.33 OffsidesContext 1.50
10.63 Shots allowedContext 12.63
3.13 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.38
3.50 BlocksContext 3.88
2.75 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.38
88% Save rateContext 54%
46% PossessionIn forecast 45%
456 PassesContext 370
386 Accurate passesContext 291
85% Pass accuracyContext 79%
7.07 Team ratingContext 6.61
10.25 FoulsContext 12.38
9.88 Fouls sufferedContext 10.50
1.38 Yellow cardsContext 1.25
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games
1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20
0.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.30
1.42 xGVia Att/Def 1.63
1.07 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.62
+0.08 Goals minus xGContext -0.43
80% Scored inContext 70%
50% Clean sheetsContext 0%
12.20 ShotsContext 13.80
4.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.20
36% On target shareContext 30%
8.10 Shots in the boxContext 10.11
67% Box shareContext 69%
12% ConversionContext 9%
2.29 OffsidesContext 1.90
12.60 Shots allowedContext 12.80
4.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.80
3.80 BlocksContext 3.90
3.60 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.50
82% Save rateContext 52%
46% PossessionIn forecast 46%
453 PassesContext 370
384 Accurate passesContext 292
85% Pass accuracyContext 79%
7.04 Team ratingContext 6.64
10.00 FoulsContext 12.30
9.30 Fouls sufferedContext 9.90
1.60 Yellow cardsContext 1.20
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Gent
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km175 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 84 · 13 pts vs 8.4 for an average club · +5.0 vs expected
  • W10 OctA · Zulte Waregem2–01.4 xPts
  • W18 SepH · Standard Liege2–11.9 xPts
  • D13 SepA · Genk1–11.1 xPts
  • W6 SepA · Cercle Brugge3–01.4 xPts
  • W3 SepH · OH Leuven1–02.2 xPts
Cercle Brugge
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel39 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 6 · 1 pts vs 8.5 for an average club · -5.5 vs expected
  • L10 OctH · Anderlecht1–21.2 xPts
  • L19 SepA · Charleroi2–30.8 xPts
  • D12 SepA · OH Leuven1–11.5 xPts
  • L6 SepH · Gent0–31.3 xPts
  • L29 AugH · Lommel United0–11.6 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Gent Cercle Brugge
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match5.9Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 17 Jan6Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 17 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km39 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways175 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 1 / 21 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Gent Last XI · not confirmed
3-4-2-1 · vs Zulte Waregem (A) 2–0, 10 Oct
33D. Roef(G)
44S. Van der Heyden 16C. Burgess 3M. Paskotši
20Tiago Araújo 17M. Delorge-Knieper 22Leonardo Lopes 45B. Goore
11M. Sonko 7M. Balikwisha
75Ibrahima Cisse
Cercle Brugge Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Anderlecht (H) 1–2, 10 Oct
1G. Coucke(G)
12Valy Konaté 24Geoffrey Kondo 5Emmanuel Kakou 15G. Magnée
28H. Van der Bruggen 18L. Le Roux
30B. Akinsola 20A. Manneh 11C. Herrmann
9S. Ngoura

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Gent Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Cercle Brugge Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Gent · Home 3.00points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
4-0-0
Scored
1.75
Conceded
0.50
Cercle Brugge · Away 0.50points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
0-2-2
Scored
1.25
Conceded
1.75

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

OpponentGentCercle Brugge
Standard Liege W 2–1 H D 2–2 A
OH Leuven W 1–0 H D 1–1 A
Club Brugge KV W 2–1 H L 0–1 A
Points9 of 9 · 3.00 per game2 of 9 · 0.67 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings

2 Gent wins0 draws3 Cercle Brugge wins
Goals per game1.60 – 1.40 Over 2.560% Both scored40% Clean sheets20% · 40%
  • 6 Sep 2026Cercle Brugge0–3Gent
  • 20 Feb 2026Gent0–1Cercle Brugge
  • 28 Sep 2025Cercle Brugge2–4Gent
  • 11 Feb 2024Gent1–2Cercle Brugge
  • 22 Oct 2023Cercle Brugge2–0Gent

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

GentCercle BruggeForecast
Scored per game 1.881.13
Conceded per game 0.502.00
Match goals 2.383.13
Over 1.5 88%75%
Over 2.5 50%63%
Over 3.5 0%38%
Both teams scored 50%63%
Clean sheets 50%0%
Failed to score 0%38%
Games88
GentCercle BruggeForecast
Scored per game 2.001.30
Conceded per game 0.502.10
Match goals 2.503.40
Over 1.5 90%80%
Over 2.5 50%70%
Over 3.5 10%50%
Both teams scored 50%70%
Clean sheets 50%0%
Failed to score 0%30%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

GentCercle BruggeLeague
Corners
Corners won5.147.29
Corners conceded3.714.57
Match total8.8511.8610.01
Over 8.557% 4/771% 5/7
Over 9.543% 3/771% 5/7
Over 10.543% 3/771% 5/7
Cards
Cards1.501.25
Opponent cards1.501.63
Match total3.002.883.36
Over 3.525% 2/825% 2/8
Over 4.525% 2/825% 2/8
GentCercle BruggeLeague
Corners
Corners won5.786.67
Corners conceded4.005.00
Match total9.7811.6710.01
Over 8.567% 6/978% 7/9
Over 9.556% 5/978% 7/9
Over 10.556% 5/978% 7/9
Cards
Cards1.701.20
Opponent cards1.201.50
Match total2.902.703.36
Over 3.530% 3/1020% 2/10
Over 4.520% 2/1020% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Gent8 games · scored 15 · conceded 4
2 1 0-15
2 16-30
4 2 31-45
2 1 46-60
61-75
5 76-90
Cercle Brugge8 games · scored 9 · conceded 16
1 2 0-15
2 3 16-30
1 3 31-45
2 46-60
1 2 61-75
4 4 76-90
Gent10 games · scored 15 · conceded 9
2 1 0-15
2 1 16-30
4 4 31-45
2 2 46-60
61-75
5 1 76-90
Cercle Brugge10 games · scored 12 · conceded 23
1 2 0-15
3 3 16-30
2 3 31-45
5 46-60
2 4 61-75
4 6 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Belgian Pro League

View all fixtures →
OH Leuven St. Truiden Jan 2316:00 KV Mechelen Lommel United Jan 2316:00 Club Brugge KV RAAL La Louvière Jan 2316:00 Gent Cercle Brugge Jan 2316:00 Standard Liege KVC Westerlo Jan 2316:00 Kortrijk Anderlecht Jan 2316:00 Charleroi Antwerp Jan 2316:00 Genk Zulte Waregem Jan 2316:00 Union St. Gilloise SK Beveren Jan 2316:00