Belgian Pro League Knockout phase Sat, Jan 23 · 16:00 Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Charleroi
Charleroi 3rd · 21 pts · 8 played
VS— Compare
Antwerp 13th · 7 pts · 8 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel90 kmRest days5.9 · 6.8Matches / 14d1 · 1
Real contextStrength only
Charleroi—%
Draw—%
Antwerp—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Charleroi)

Forecast from 8 Jan

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Charleroi and Antwerp. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

CharleroiAntwerp
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
38 Current StrengthIn forecast 26
43 AttackIn forecast 24
50 DefenceIn forecast 19
80 Form indexContext 9
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Charleroi

Attack—
Defense risk—

Antwerp

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

CharleroiAntwerp
2.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50
0.88 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.50
1.86 xGVia Att/Def 1.35
0.73 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.61
+0.14 Goals minus xGContext +0.15
100% Scored inContext 75%
50% Clean sheetsContext 13%
16.75 ShotsContext 14.63
5.63 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.00
34% On target shareContext 34%
11.63 Shots in the boxContext 9.50
69% Box shareContext 64%
12% ConversionContext 10%
1.86 OffsidesContext 1.33
10.88 Shots allowedContext 16.25
4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.63
4.57 BlocksContext 4.38
2.71 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.88
79% Save rateContext 59%
57% PossessionIn forecast 48%
496 PassesContext 393
421 Accurate passesContext 316
85% Pass accuracyContext 81%
7.10 Team ratingContext 6.66
10.13 FoulsContext 14.00
13.38 Fouls sufferedContext 9.50
1.13 Yellow cardsContext 1.88
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.13
This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games
1.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40
0.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00
1.84 xGVia Att/Def 1.27
0.71 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.59
+0.06 Goals minus xGContext +0.13
100% Scored inContext 70%
50% Clean sheetsContext 30%
16.80 ShotsContext 14.50
5.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.80
34% On target shareContext 33%
11.80 Shots in the boxContext 9.30
70% Box shareContext 63%
11% ConversionContext 10%
2.00 OffsidesContext 1.63
10.40 Shots allowedContext 17.10
3.63 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.80
4.50 BlocksContext 5.10
2.67 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.50
83% Save rateContext 66%
58% PossessionIn forecast 47%
484 PassesContext 387
411 Accurate passesContext 311
85% Pass accuracyContext 81%
7.08 Team ratingContext 6.79
10.10 FoulsContext 13.20
12.50 Fouls sufferedContext 9.60
1.30 Yellow cardsContext 2.00
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Charleroi
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 80 · 12 pts vs 8.1 for an average club · +4.5 vs expected
  • W11 OctA · Standard Liege1–01.4 xPts
  • W19 SepH · Cercle Brugge3–21.9 xPts
  • W13 SepA · Zulte Waregem1–01.2 xPts
  • L5 SepH · Union St. Gilloise2–31.2 xPts
  • W29 AugA · Kortrijk3–11.8 xPts
Antwerp
Rest6.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel90 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 9 · 0 pts vs 6.6 for an average club · -4.8 vs expected
  • L11 OctA · KVC Westerlo1–51.0 xPts
  • L20 SepH · Union St. Gilloise0–20.7 xPts
  • L13 SepA · Club Brugge KV1–30.5 xPts
  • L5 SepA · Standard Liege0–11.1 xPts
  • L30 AugH · St. Truiden1–41.6 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Charleroi Antwerp
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match5.9Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 17 Jan6.8Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 16 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km90 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways0 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 1 / 11 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Charleroi Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Standard Liege (A) 1–0, 11 Oct
30M. Koné(G)
24M. Nzita 95C. Keita 4A. Ousou 3K. Van Den Kerkhof
18Y. Khalifi 6A. Boukamir
20F. Mbemba 8J. Romsaas 14P. Pflücke
21A. Scheidler
Antwerp Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs KVC Westerlo (A) 1–5, 11 Oct
41Taishi Brandon Nozawa(G)
5D. Foulon 3Álvaro Cortés 20R. Van Helden 17S. Renders
48A. Vermeeren 8M. Benítez
7I. Salah 24T. Somers 14Xander Dierickx
9M. Frey

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Charleroi Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Antwerp Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Charleroi · Home 2.25points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
3-0-1
Scored
2.50
Conceded
1.50
Antwerp · Away 0.75points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
1-0-3
Scored
1.25
Conceded
2.25

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

OpponentCharleroiAntwerp
Standard Liege W 1–0 A L 0–1 A
Union St. Gilloise L 2–3 H L 0–2 H
Kortrijk W 3–1 A W 3–0 A
Points6 of 9 · 2.00 per game3 of 9 · 1.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

4 Charleroi wins1 draws1 Antwerp wins
Goals per game1.67 – 1.33 Over 2.550% Both scored67% Clean sheets33% · 0%
  • 10 May 2026Antwerp0–1Charleroi
  • 10 Apr 2026Charleroi2–1Antwerp
  • 25 Jan 2026Antwerp0–2Charleroi
  • 17 Aug 2025Charleroi1–1Antwerp
  • 21 Jan 2024Antwerp4–1Charleroi
  • 21 Oct 2023Charleroi3–2Antwerp

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

CharleroiAntwerpForecast
Scored per game 2.001.50
Conceded per game 0.882.50
Match goals 2.884.00
Over 1.5 63%88%
Over 2.5 50%75%
Over 3.5 50%50%
Both teams scored 50%63%
Clean sheets 50%13%
Failed to score 0%25%
Games88
CharleroiAntwerpForecast
Scored per game 1.601.30
Conceded per game 1.002.20
Match goals 2.603.50
Over 1.5 60%80%
Over 2.5 40%60%
Over 3.5 40%40%
Both teams scored 40%60%
Clean sheets 40%10%
Failed to score 20%30%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

CharleroiAntwerpLeague
Corners
Corners won5.504.63
Corners conceded4.385.50
Match total9.8810.1310.01
Over 8.563% 5/850% 4/8
Over 9.563% 5/838% 3/8
Over 10.563% 5/838% 3/8
Cards
Cards1.132.13
Opponent cards1.382.25
Match total2.514.383.36
Over 3.525% 2/863% 5/8
Over 4.50% 0/850% 4/8
CharleroiAntwerpLeague
Corners
Corners won6.504.60
Corners conceded4.706.10
Match total11.2010.7010.01
Over 8.570% 7/1060% 6/10
Over 9.570% 7/1050% 5/10
Over 10.570% 7/1050% 5/10
Cards
Cards1.402.20
Opponent cards1.402.00
Match total2.804.203.36
Over 3.530% 3/1060% 6/10
Over 4.510% 1/1050% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Charleroi8 games · scored 16 · conceded 7
1 1 0-15
4 1 16-30
3 3 31-45
2 1 46-60
3 1 61-75
3 76-90
Antwerp8 games · scored 12 · conceded 20
2 0-15
3 1 16-30
1 2 31-45
1 5 46-60
2 3 61-75
5 7 76-90
Charleroi10 games · scored 19 · conceded 8
1 1 0-15
4 2 16-30
3 3 31-45
3 1 46-60
4 1 61-75
4 76-90
Antwerp10 games · scored 14 · conceded 20
2 0-15
3 1 16-30
2 2 31-45
1 5 46-60
3 3 61-75
5 7 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Belgian Pro League

View all fixtures →
OH Leuven St. Truiden Jan 2316:00 KV Mechelen Lommel United Jan 2316:00 Club Brugge KV RAAL La Louvière Jan 2316:00 Gent Cercle Brugge Jan 2316:00 Standard Liege KVC Westerlo Jan 2316:00 Kortrijk Anderlecht Jan 2316:00 Charleroi Antwerp Jan 2316:00 Genk Zulte Waregem Jan 2316:00 Union St. Gilloise SK Beveren Jan 2316:00