KV Mechelen
Attack—
Defense risk—
KV Mechelen
14th · 6 pts · 8 played
DLLDW
First leg0–0
VS—
Compare
Lommel United
10th · 11 pts · 8 played
WLLDW
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel63 kmRest days6.8 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Real contextStrength only
KV Mechelen—%
Draw—%
Lommel United—%
Weather (Malines)
Forecast from 8 Jan
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for KV Mechelen and Lommel United. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Insight
Lommel United
3
Clean sheets
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Insight
KV Mechelen
−0.60
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for0.88xG against1.48
-
Alert
KV Mechelen
2.1
Goals conceded per match
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Attack
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Defence
-
Insight
Lommel United
3
Clean sheets
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Alert
KV Mechelen
2.1
Goals conceded per match
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
KV Mechelen
−0.60
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for0.88xG against1.48
Streaks
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Team strength
KV MechelenLommel United
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
23
Current StrengthIn forecast
36
18
AttackIn forecast
32
23
DefenceIn forecast
41
20
Form indexContext
47
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLommel United
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
KV MechelenLommel United
1.13
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.13
2.13
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.13
1.02
xGVia Att/Def
1.13
1.42
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.15
+0.11
Goals minus xGContext
+0.00
38%
Scored inContext
50%
13%
Clean sheetsContext
38%
11.13
ShotsContext
10.75
3.57
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
28%
On target shareContext
28%
7.88
Shots in the boxContext
7.00
68%
Box shareContext
66%
10%
ConversionContext
11%
2.86
OffsidesContext
2.33
14.50
Shots allowedContext
19.25
5.71
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.63
3.00
BlocksContext
6.50
3.29
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
58%
Save rateContext
76%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
407
PassesContext
407
317
Accurate passesContext
339
78%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.55
Team ratingContext
6.86
12.25
FoulsContext
7.00
13.88
Fouls sufferedContext
10.75
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
2.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
0.88
xGVia Att/Def
1.13
1.48
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.15
+0.22
Goals minus xGContext
+0.07
40%
Scored inContext
50%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
10.90
ShotsContext
10.50
3.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.75
28%
On target shareContext
29%
7.40
Shots in the boxContext
7.00
65%
Box shareContext
66%
10%
ConversionContext
11%
2.63
OffsidesContext
2.33
14.50
Shots allowedContext
18.80
5.56
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.40
3.40
BlocksContext
5.80
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.30
60%
Save rateContext
75%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
400
PassesContext
403
311
Accurate passesContext
331
78%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.55
Team ratingContext
6.88
10.90
FoulsContext
7.20
12.80
Fouls sufferedContext
11.40
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
KV Mechelen
DLLDW
Rest6.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km44 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 20 · 5 pts vs 8.8 for an average club · -1.2 vs expected
Lommel United
WLLDW
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel63 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 47 · 7 pts vs 7.3 for an average club · +0.9 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| KV Mechelen |
Lommel United |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.8Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 16 Jan | 7Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 16 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 63 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 44 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
KV Mechelen
Last XI · not confirmed
13Nacho Mirás(G)
3José Marsà
44M. Eerdhuijzen
20K. Corbanie
7T. Koudou
30Marco Decherf
6F. Hammar
23S. Michez
9M. van Brederode
14B. Raman
28B. Boersma
Lommel United
Last XI · not confirmed
23M. Pieklak(G)
4S. Adewoye
8Nicolas Rommens
3T. Eyoma
2J. van Duiven
44I. Dada-Mascoll
15Lucas Schoofs
11S. Appuah
10Tom Reyners
7J. Talvitie
9D. Konadu
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences KV Mechelen
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Lommel United
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
KV Mechelen · Home
1.00points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-2
- Scored
- 1.75
- Conceded
- 2.75
Lommel United · Away
1.75points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-1
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 1.75
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | KV Mechelen | Lommel United |
|---|---|---|
| St. Truiden | W 4–3 H | D 1–1 A |
| KVC Westerlo | L 0–4 H | W 4–0 H |
| Charleroi | L 0–2 A | L 0–1 H |
| Points | 3 of 9 · 1.00 per game | 4 of 9 · 1.33 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 KV Mechelen wins1 draws0 Lommel United wins
Goals per game0.00 – 0.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets100% · 100%
- 19 Sep 2026Lommel United0–0KV Mechelen
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| KV Mechelen | Lommel United | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.13 | 1.13 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.13 | 1.13 | |
| Match goals | 3.25 | 2.25 | |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 38% | |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 38% | |
| Both teams scored | 38% | 25% | |
| Clean sheets | 13% | 38% | |
| Failed to score | 63% | 50% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
| KV Mechelen | Lommel United | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 1.13 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.10 | 1.13 | |
| Match goals | 3.20 | 2.25 | |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 38% | |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 38% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 25% | |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 38% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 8 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| KV Mechelen | Lommel United | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.63 | 3.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.25 | 7.88 | |
| Match total | 8.88 | 11.38 | 10.01 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 4/8 | 88% 7/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 4/8 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 3/8 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.13 | 1.63 | |
| Match total | 3.63 | 2.63 | 3.36 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 4/8 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 4/8 | 25% 2/8 | |
| KV Mechelen | Lommel United | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.20 | 3.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.10 | 7.60 | |
| Match total | 8.30 | 11.20 | 10.01 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 1.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 3.00 | 3.36 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
KV Mechelen8 games · scored 9 · conceded 17
1
3
0-15
1
2
16-30
3
6
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
3
61-75
2
2
76-90
Lommel United7 games · scored 9 · conceded 4
0-15
3
16-30
1
2
31-45
3
46-60
1
2
61-75
1
76-90
KV Mechelen10 games · scored 11 · conceded 22
1
3
0-15
1
4
16-30
3
7
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
4
61-75
3
2
76-90
Lommel United9 games · scored 12 · conceded 6
0-15
3
16-30
1
3
31-45
4
46-60
1
2
61-75
3
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.
Next fixtures Belgian Pro League
View all fixtures →
OH Leuven
St. Truiden
Jan 2316:00
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Jan 2316:00
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