Belgian Pro League Knockout phase Sat, May 1 · 16:00 Planet Group Arena, Gent
Gent 1st · 22 pts · 8 played
First leg1–1 VS— Compare
Genk 7th · 12 pts · 8 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel125 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Gent—%
Draw—%
Genk—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Gent)

Forecast from 16 Apr

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Gent and Genk. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

GentGenk
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
46 Current StrengthIn forecast 44
46 AttackIn forecast 46
61 DefenceIn forecast 50
84 Form indexContext 49
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Gent

Attack—
Defense risk—

Genk

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

GentGenk
1.88 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00
0.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50
1.31 xGVia Att/Def 2.18
0.60 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.89
+0.57 Goals minus xGContext -0.18
100% Scored inContext 75%
50% Clean sheetsContext 38%
12.38 ShotsContext 13.88
5.13 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.00
41% On target shareContext 36%
8.00 Shots in the boxContext 9.38
65% Box shareContext 66%
15% ConversionContext 14%
2.33 OffsidesContext 2.83
10.63 Shots allowedContext 13.50
3.13 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.75
3.50 BlocksContext 5.29
2.75 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.50
88% Save rateContext 67%
46% PossessionIn forecast 54%
456 PassesContext 499
386 Accurate passesContext 432
85% Pass accuracyContext 87%
7.07 Team ratingContext 6.97
10.25 FoulsContext 11.25
9.88 Fouls sufferedContext 10.38
1.38 Yellow cardsContext 1.88
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games
1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.80
0.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20
1.42 xGVia Att/Def 2.14
1.07 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.87
+0.08 Goals minus xGContext -0.34
80% Scored inContext 70%
50% Clean sheetsContext 50%
12.20 ShotsContext 15.50
4.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.80
36% On target shareContext 37%
8.10 Shots in the boxContext 10.50
67% Box shareContext 68%
12% ConversionContext 12%
2.29 OffsidesContext 2.75
12.60 Shots allowedContext 13.40
4.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.60
3.80 BlocksContext 5.11
3.60 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.60
82% Save rateContext 72%
46% PossessionIn forecast 54%
453 PassesContext 497
384 Accurate passesContext 429
85% Pass accuracyContext 86%
7.04 Team ratingContext 7.01
10.00 FoulsContext 11.30
9.30 Fouls sufferedContext 10.20
1.60 Yellow cardsContext 1.70
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Gent
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km111 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 84 · 13 pts vs 8.4 for an average club · +5.0 vs expected
  • W10 OctA · Zulte Waregem2–01.4 xPts
  • W18 SepH · Standard Liege2–11.9 xPts
  • D13 SepA · Genk1–11.1 xPts
  • W6 SepA · Cercle Brugge3–01.4 xPts
  • W3 SepH · OH Leuven1–02.2 xPts
Genk
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel125 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 49 · 8 pts vs 8.1 for an average club · -0.4 vs expected
  • W10 OctH · Kortrijk3–02.4 xPts
  • L20 SepA · Club Brugge KV0–30.9 xPts
  • D13 SepH · Gent1–11.7 xPts
  • D6 SepA · Anderlecht0–01.3 xPts
  • W28 AugH · SK Beveren4–02.1 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Gent Genk
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 24 Apr7Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 24 Apr
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km125 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways111 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 41 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Gent Last XI · not confirmed
3-4-2-1 · vs Zulte Waregem (A) 2–0, 10 Oct
33D. Roef(G)
44S. Van der Heyden 16C. Burgess 3M. Paskotši
20Tiago Araújo 17M. Delorge-Knieper 22Leonardo Lopes 45B. Goore
11M. Sonko 7M. Balikwisha
75Ibrahima Cisse
Genk Last XI · not confirmed
4-3-3 · vs Kortrijk (H) 3–0, 10 Oct
28L. Brughmans(G)
18J. Kayembe 44J. Kongolo 6M. Smets 20K. Amaro
8B. Heynen 38D. Heymans 4B. Tahirović
32N. Adedeji-Sternberg 17R. Durosinmi 10J. Ito

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Gent Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Genk Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Gent · Home 3.00points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
4-0-0
Scored
1.75
Conceded
0.50
Genk · Away 0.50points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
0-2-2
Scored
1.25
Conceded
2.25

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

OpponentGentGenk
Zulte Waregem W 2–0 A L 1–2 A
Club Brugge KV W 2–1 H L 0–3 A
Points6 of 6 · 3.00 per game0 of 6 · 0.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings

0 Gent wins4 draws1 Genk wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.60 Over 2.540% Both scored80% Clean sheets0% · 20%
  • 13 Sep 2026Genk1–1Gent
  • 1 Mar 2026Genk3–0Gent
  • 9 Nov 2025Gent1–1Genk
  • 3 Dec 2023Genk2–2Gent
  • 8 Oct 2023Gent1–1Genk

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

GentGenkForecast
Scored per game 1.882.00
Conceded per game 0.501.50
Match goals 2.383.50
Over 1.5 88%88%
Over 2.5 50%75%
Over 3.5 0%38%
Both teams scored 50%50%
Clean sheets 50%38%
Failed to score 0%25%
Games88
GentGenkForecast
Scored per game 2.002.20
Conceded per game 0.502.20
Match goals 2.504.40
Over 1.5 90%90%
Over 2.5 50%80%
Over 3.5 10%50%
Both teams scored 50%60%
Clean sheets 50%30%
Failed to score 0%20%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

GentGenkLeague
Corners
Corners won5.143.88
Corners conceded3.715.88
Match total8.859.7610.01
Over 8.557% 4/788% 7/8
Over 9.543% 3/750% 4/8
Over 10.543% 3/725% 2/8
Cards
Cards1.501.88
Opponent cards1.502.00
Match total3.003.883.36
Over 3.525% 2/850% 4/8
Over 4.525% 2/838% 3/8
GentGenkLeague
Corners
Corners won5.784.60
Corners conceded4.005.40
Match total9.7810.0010.01
Over 8.567% 6/980% 8/10
Over 9.556% 5/950% 5/10
Over 10.556% 5/930% 3/10
Cards
Cards1.701.70
Opponent cards1.201.80
Match total2.903.503.36
Over 3.530% 3/1040% 4/10
Over 4.520% 2/1030% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Gent8 games · scored 15 · conceded 4
2 1 0-15
2 16-30
4 2 31-45
2 1 46-60
61-75
5 76-90
Genk8 games · scored 16 · conceded 12
3 4 0-15
1 1 16-30
5 31-45
3 1 46-60
3 1 61-75
1 5 76-90
Gent10 games · scored 15 · conceded 9
2 1 0-15
2 1 16-30
4 4 31-45
2 2 46-60
61-75
5 1 76-90
Genk10 games · scored 18 · conceded 12
3 4 0-15
2 1 16-30
6 31-45
3 1 46-60
3 1 61-75
1 5 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Belgian Pro League

View all fixtures →
KVC Westerlo OH Leuven May 116:00 KV Mechelen Antwerp May 116:00 Gent Genk May 116:00 Standard Liege Lommel United May 116:00 St. Truiden Anderlecht May 116:00 Charleroi Zulte Waregem May 116:00 SK Beveren RAAL La Louvière May 116:00 Cercle Brugge Club Brugge KV May 116:00 Union St. Gilloise Kortrijk May 116:00