Belgian Pro League Knockout phase Sat, May 1 · 16:00 Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium, St.-Trond
St. Truiden 12th · 8 pts · 8 played
VS— Compare
Anderlecht 5th · 16 pts · 8 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Rest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
St. Truiden—%
Draw—%
Anderlecht—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (St.-Trond)

Forecast from 16 Apr

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for St. Truiden and Anderlecht. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

St. TruidenAnderlecht
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
35 Current StrengthIn forecast 43
37 AttackIn forecast 37
32 DefenceIn forecast 52
11 Form indexContext 59
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

St. Truiden

Attack—
Defense risk—

Anderlecht

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

St. TruidenAnderlecht
1.88 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.13
2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.75
2.01 xGVia Att/Def 1.39
1.75 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.87
-0.13 Goals minus xGContext -0.26
63% Scored inContext 63%
13% Clean sheetsContext 50%
17.00 ShotsContext 15.00
5.14 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.75
27% On target shareContext 32%
11.88 Shots in the boxContext 9.50
68% Box shareContext 61%
11% ConversionContext 8%
1.86 OffsidesContext 1.43
13.63 Shots allowedContext 9.88
4.88 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.63
3.00 BlocksContext 2.00
3.38 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.75
69% Save rateContext 76%
56% PossessionIn forecast 62%
520 PassesContext 560
437 Accurate passesContext 482
84% Pass accuracyContext 86%
6.82 Team ratingContext 6.99
10.38 FoulsContext 12.38
9.63 Fouls sufferedContext 11.50
2.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.13
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games
1.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40
2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.70
2.01 xGVia Att/Def 0.95
1.75 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.10
-0.21 Goals minus xGContext +0.45
70% Scored inContext 70%
20% Clean sheetsContext 60%
17.00 ShotsContext 11.88
5.14 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.50
27% On target shareContext 38%
11.88 Shots in the boxContext 7.63
68% Box shareContext 61%
11% ConversionContext 8%
1.86 OffsidesContext 1.50
13.63 Shots allowedContext 11.25
4.88 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.63
3.10 BlocksContext 1.90
3.38 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.75
69% Save rateContext 81%
56% PossessionIn forecast 60%
520 PassesContext 533
437 Accurate passesContext 459
84% Pass accuracyContext 86%
6.82 Team ratingContext 6.93
10.80 FoulsContext 12.90
9.60 Fouls sufferedContext 12.60
2.20 Yellow cardsContext 2.20
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

St. Truiden
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 11 · 3 pts vs 8.8 for an average club · -5.4 vs expected
  • L11 OctA · KV Mechelen3–41.5 xPts
  • L20 SepH · KVC Westerlo0–21.9 xPts
  • L12 SepA · SK Beveren0–21.7 xPts
  • W5 SepH · RAAL La Louvière4–02.1 xPts
  • L2 SepH · Union St. Gilloise0–31.3 xPts
Anderlecht
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel—99 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 59 · 9 pts vs 8.0 for an average club · +1.4 vs expected
  • L15 OctA · Dinamo Zagreb0–11.2 xPts
  • W10 OctA · Cercle Brugge2–11.6 xPts
  • W19 SepH · Zulte Waregem3–01.7 xPts
  • L16 SepH · Lyon1–21.5 xPts
  • W11 SepA · KV Mechelen1–01.7 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
St. Truiden Anderlecht
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 24 Apr7Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 24 Apr
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km—
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways0 km99 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 41 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.

Squad & lineups

St. Truiden Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs KV Mechelen (A) 3–4, 11 Oct
16L. Kokubo(G)
3T. Hata 5S. Taniguchi 4K. Takai 60R. Vanwesemael
8A. Sissako 14R. Merlen
10I. Sebaoui 71R. Araki 38Kaito Matsuzawa
9S. Baždar
Anderlecht Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Dinamo Zagreb (A) 0–1, 15 Oct
26C. Coosemans(G)
5O. Reabciuk 27L. Pétrot 12A. Omobamidele 50K. Barry
19Thelo Aasgaard 29M. Stroeykens
83T. Degreef 18L. Ambros 10M. Winkler
9M. Cvetković

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
St. Truiden Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Anderlecht Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

St. Truiden · Home 1.00points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
1-1-2
Scored
1.25
Conceded
1.50
Anderlecht · Away 1.50points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
2-0-2
Scored
0.75
Conceded
1.25

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 5 this season

OpponentSt. TruidenAnderlecht
KV Mechelen L 3–4 A W 1–0 A
SK Beveren L 0–2 A L 0–1 A
RAAL La Louvière W 4–0 H W 2–1 H
Union St. Gilloise L 0–3 H L 0–3 A
Cercle Brugge D 3–3 A W 2–1 A
Points4 of 15 · 0.80 per game9 of 15 · 1.80 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

1 St. Truiden wins1 draws4 Anderlecht wins
Goals per game1.17 – 2.00 Over 2.567% Both scored67% Clean sheets17% · 17%
  • 21 May 2026Anderlecht3–1St. Truiden
  • 23 Apr 2026St. Truiden2–0Anderlecht
  • 13 Dec 2025Anderlecht2–1St. Truiden
  • 19 Oct 2025St. Truiden2–2Anderlecht
  • 18 Feb 2024Anderlecht4–1St. Truiden
  • 13 Aug 2023St. Truiden0–1Anderlecht

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

St. TruidenAnderlechtForecast
Scored per game 1.881.13
Conceded per game 2.000.75
Match goals 3.881.88
Over 1.5 100%50%
Over 2.5 63%50%
Over 3.5 50%0%
Both teams scored 50%25%
Clean sheets 13%50%
Failed to score 38%38%
Games88
St. TruidenAnderlechtForecast
Scored per game 1.801.40
Conceded per game 2.000.70
Match goals 3.802.10
Over 1.5 90%60%
Over 2.5 60%60%
Over 3.5 50%0%
Both teams scored 50%20%
Clean sheets 20%60%
Failed to score 30%30%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

St. TruidenAnderlechtLeague
Corners
Corners won5.386.63
Corners conceded3.633.13
Match total9.019.7610.01
Over 8.550% 4/863% 5/8
Over 9.538% 3/838% 3/8
Over 10.525% 2/838% 3/8
Cards
Cards2.002.13
Opponent cards1.251.38
Match total3.253.513.36
Over 3.538% 3/850% 4/8
Over 4.525% 2/825% 2/8
St. TruidenAnderlechtLeague
Corners
Corners won5.505.40
Corners conceded3.503.80
Match total9.009.2010.01
Over 8.550% 5/1060% 6/10
Over 9.540% 4/1040% 4/10
Over 10.530% 3/1010% 1/10
Cards
Cards2.202.20
Opponent cards1.301.80
Match total3.504.003.36
Over 3.540% 4/1060% 6/10
Over 4.530% 3/1030% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

St. Truiden8 games · scored 15 · conceded 16
2 0-15
4 16-30
3 3 31-45
3 5 46-60
4 2 61-75
3 2 76-90
Anderlecht8 games · scored 9 · conceded 6
2 0-15
16-30
3 2 31-45
2 1 46-60
1 61-75
3 1 76-90
St. Truiden10 games · scored 18 · conceded 20
2 0-15
6 16-30
4 3 31-45
3 6 46-60
4 2 61-75
5 3 76-90
Anderlecht10 games · scored 14 · conceded 7
1 2 0-15
1 1 16-30
5 2 31-45
3 46-60
2 61-75
2 2 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Belgian Pro League

View all fixtures →
KVC Westerlo OH Leuven May 116:00 KV Mechelen Antwerp May 116:00 Gent Genk May 116:00 Standard Liege Lommel United May 116:00 St. Truiden Anderlecht May 116:00 Charleroi Zulte Waregem May 116:00 SK Beveren RAAL La Louvière May 116:00 Cercle Brugge Club Brugge KV May 116:00 Union St. Gilloise Kortrijk May 116:00