KV Mechelen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel22 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
KV Mechelen—%
Draw—%
Antwerp—%
Weather (Malines)
Forecast from 16 Apr
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for KV Mechelen and Antwerp. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Trend
Antwerp
63%
Both teams scored
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Trend
Antwerp
1.5
Goals scored per match
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
KV Mechelen
−0.60
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for0.88xG against1.48
-
Alert
Antwerp
2.5
Goals conceded per match
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Alert
KV Mechelen
2.1
Goals conceded per match
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Attack
Defence
-
Alert
Antwerp
2.5
Goals conceded per match
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
KV Mechelen
−0.60
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for0.88xG against1.48
-
Alert
KV Mechelen
2.1
Goals conceded per match
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Antwerp
−0.32
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.27xG against1.59
Team strength
KV MechelenAntwerp
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
23
Current StrengthIn forecast
26
18
AttackIn forecast
24
23
DefenceIn forecast
19
20
Form indexContext
9
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAntwerp
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
KV MechelenAntwerp
1.13
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
2.13
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.50
1.02
xGVia Att/Def
1.35
1.42
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.61
+0.11
Goals minus xGContext
+0.15
38%
Scored inContext
75%
13%
Clean sheetsContext
13%
11.13
ShotsContext
14.63
3.57
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
28%
On target shareContext
34%
7.88
Shots in the boxContext
9.50
68%
Box shareContext
64%
10%
ConversionContext
10%
2.86
OffsidesContext
1.33
14.50
Shots allowedContext
16.25
5.71
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.63
3.00
BlocksContext
4.38
3.29
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.88
58%
Save rateContext
59%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
407
PassesContext
393
317
Accurate passesContext
316
78%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.55
Team ratingContext
6.66
12.25
FoulsContext
14.00
13.88
Fouls sufferedContext
9.50
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.88
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.13
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
2.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
0.88
xGVia Att/Def
1.27
1.48
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.59
+0.22
Goals minus xGContext
+0.13
40%
Scored inContext
70%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
10.90
ShotsContext
14.50
3.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.80
28%
On target shareContext
33%
7.40
Shots in the boxContext
9.30
65%
Box shareContext
63%
10%
ConversionContext
10%
2.63
OffsidesContext
1.63
14.50
Shots allowedContext
17.10
5.56
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.80
3.40
BlocksContext
5.10
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.50
60%
Save rateContext
66%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
400
PassesContext
387
311
Accurate passesContext
311
78%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.55
Team ratingContext
6.79
10.90
FoulsContext
13.20
12.80
Fouls sufferedContext
9.60
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
KV Mechelen
DLLDW
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km150 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 20 · 5 pts vs 8.8 for an average club · -1.2 vs expected
Antwerp
LLLLL
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel22 km84 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 9 · 0 pts vs 6.6 for an average club · -4.8 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| KV Mechelen |
Antwerp |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 24 Apr | 7Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 24 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 22 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 150 km | 84 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
KV Mechelen
Last XI · not confirmed
13Nacho Mirás(G)
3José Marsà
44M. Eerdhuijzen
20K. Corbanie
7T. Koudou
30Marco Decherf
6F. Hammar
23S. Michez
9M. van Brederode
14B. Raman
28B. Boersma
Antwerp
Last XI · not confirmed
41Taishi Brandon Nozawa(G)
5D. Foulon
3Álvaro Cortés
20R. Van Helden
17S. Renders
48A. Vermeeren
8M. Benítez
7I. Salah
24T. Somers
14Xander Dierickx
9M. Frey
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences KV Mechelen
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Antwerp
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
KV Mechelen · Home
1.00points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-2
- Scored
- 1.75
- Conceded
- 2.75
Antwerp · Away
0.75points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-3
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 2.25
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | KV Mechelen | Antwerp |
|---|---|---|
| St. Truiden | W 4–3 H | L 1–4 H |
| KVC Westerlo | L 0–4 H | L 1–5 A |
| Standard Liege | D 3–3 H | L 0–1 A |
| Points | 4 of 9 · 1.33 per game | 0 of 9 · 0.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
2 KV Mechelen wins1 draws1 Antwerp wins
Goals per game1.00 – 0.50
Over 2.525%
Both scored25%
Clean sheets75% · 25%
- 8 Feb 2026KV Mechelen2–0Antwerp
- 24 Aug 2025Antwerp2–1KV Mechelen
- 17 Feb 2024Antwerp0–1KV Mechelen
- 30 Sep 2023KV Mechelen0–0Antwerp
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| KV Mechelen | Antwerp | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.13 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.13 | 2.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.25 | 4.00 | |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 88% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 75% | |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 38% | 63% | |
| Clean sheets | 13% | 13% | |
| Failed to score | 63% | 25% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
| KV Mechelen | Antwerp | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.10 | 2.20 | |
| Match goals | 3.20 | 3.50 | |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 60% | |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% | |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| KV Mechelen | Antwerp | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.63 | 4.63 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.25 | 5.50 | |
| Match total | 8.88 | 10.13 | 10.01 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 4/8 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 4/8 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 3/8 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 2.13 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.13 | 2.25 | |
| Match total | 3.63 | 4.38 | 3.36 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 4/8 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 4/8 | 50% 4/8 | |
| KV Mechelen | Antwerp | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.20 | 4.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.10 | 6.10 | |
| Match total | 8.30 | 10.70 | 10.01 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 4.20 | 3.36 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
KV Mechelen8 games · scored 9 · conceded 17
1
3
0-15
1
2
16-30
3
6
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
3
61-75
2
2
76-90
Antwerp8 games · scored 12 · conceded 20
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
1
5
46-60
2
3
61-75
5
7
76-90
KV Mechelen10 games · scored 11 · conceded 22
1
3
0-15
1
4
16-30
3
7
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
4
61-75
3
2
76-90
Antwerp10 games · scored 14 · conceded 20
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
1
5
46-60
3
3
61-75
5
7
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.
Next fixtures Belgian Pro League
View all fixtures →
KVC Westerlo
OH Leuven
May 116:00
KV Mechelen
Antwerp
May 116:00
Gent
Genk
May 116:00
Standard Liege
Lommel United
May 116:00
St. Truiden
Anderlecht
May 116:00
Charleroi
Zulte Waregem
May 116:00
SK Beveren
RAAL La Louvière
May 116:00
Cercle Brugge
Club Brugge KV
May 116:00
Union St. Gilloise
Kortrijk
May 116:00