Gent
Attack—
Defense risk—
Gent
11th · 23 pts · 19 played
DLDLL
First leg0–0
2–0Full time
KVC Westerlo
9th · 24 pts · 19 played
DDWDW
Our take
Gent were slight favourites.
Gent were the stronger side on L90 Strength (34 vs 26). Gent had 6.3 days of rest, KVC Westerlo 7.1 and had to travel 84 km.
Away travel84 kmRest days6.3 · 7.1Matches / 14d2 · 2
Gent49%
Draw26%
KVC Westerlo25%
Gent49%
Draw26%
KVC Westerlo25%
Gent49%
Draw26%
KVC Westerlo25%
Gent41%
Draw27%
KVC Westerlo32%
Gent49%
Draw26%
KVC Westerlo25%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Gent)
No weather data yet
RefereeSimon Bourdeaud'hui
- Cards per match 3.6
- Penalties per match 0.15
- Matches 20
Team strength
GentKVC Westerlo
34
L90 StrengthIn forecast
26
46
Current StrengthIn forecast
33
46
AttackIn forecast
42
61
DefenceIn forecast
32
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisKVC Westerlo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GentKVC Westerlo
1.37
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.47
1.53
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.47
1.22
xGVia Att/Def
1.57
1.56
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.31
+0.15
Goals minus xGContext
-0.10
79%
Scored inContext
63%
21%
Clean sheetsContext
32%
12.32
ShotsContext
15.11
4.21
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.78
34%
On target shareContext
30%
7.63
Shots in the boxContext
10.53
62%
Box shareContext
68%
11%
ConversionContext
10%
2.21
OffsidesContext
1.36
13.95
Shots allowedContext
12.21
5.11
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.26
4.38
BlocksContext
4.00
3.94
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.89
76%
Save rateContext
68%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
454
PassesContext
378
374
Accurate passesContext
304
82%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.84
Team ratingContext
6.91
10.37
FoulsContext
11.26
10.26
Fouls sufferedContext
11.53
1.63
Yellow cardsContext
1.58
0.16
Red cardsContext
0.05
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
1.08
xGVia Att/Def
1.63
1.65
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.21
+0.02
Goals minus xGContext
-0.43
70%
Scored inContext
60%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
11.60
ShotsContext
15.10
3.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.44
31%
On target shareContext
27%
6.70
Shots in the boxContext
10.70
57%
Box shareContext
68%
10%
ConversionContext
8%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.33
14.10
Shots allowedContext
10.80
4.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.80
4.11
BlocksContext
3.50
3.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
75%
Save rateContext
79%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
444
PassesContext
395
364
Accurate passesContext
324
82%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.78
Team ratingContext
7.00
10.30
FoulsContext
10.50
9.30
Fouls sufferedContext
11.70
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Gent
Rest6.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km77 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
KVC Westerlo
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel84 km87 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Gent |
KVC Westerlo |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.3Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 21 Dec | 7.1Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 20 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 84 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 77 km | 87 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 0 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 21.7 | 20.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Gent
Confirmed XI
33D. Roef(G)
20Tiago Araújo
44S. Van der Heyden
3M. Paskotši
57Matties Volckaert
18M. Samoise
27T. De Vlieger
15A. Ito
37A. Kadri
45B. Goore
7A. Kanga
KVC Westerlo
Confirmed XI
99A. Jungdal(G)
25T. Rommens
4A. Lapage
40E. Bayram
22B. Reynolds
46A. Piedfort
34D. Haspolat
11A. Awokoya-Mebude
13I. Sakamoto
7A. Sayyadmanesh
90Nacho Ferri
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Gent
Absences are shown before kick-off
KVC Westerlo
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Gent+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- KVC Westerlo+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Gent · Home
1.56points per game · 9 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-2-3
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 1.11
KVC Westerlo · Away
0.78points per game · 9 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-4-4
- Scored
- 1.56
- Conceded
- 2.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | Gent | KVC Westerlo |
|---|---|---|
| Club Brugge KV | L 1–2 AD 1–1 H | D 5–5 A |
| Antwerp | L 0–2 HW 2–1 A | W 2–0 H |
| Union St. Gilloise | D 1–1 AL 2–3 H | L 0–2 A |
| St. Truiden | L 1–2 HL 1–3 A | W 3–0 A |
| Genk | D 1–1 H | D 1–1 AL 0–1 H |
| OH Leuven | L 0–4 A | W 2–0 H |
| Standard Liege | W 4–0 H | L 0–2 H |
| Zulte Waregem | L 1–4 A | W 3–1 H |
| Charleroi | W 2–1 H | L 0–2 A |
| Cercle Brugge | W 4–2 A | L 1–4 A |
| Anderlecht | L 0–1 A | W 4–0 HL 2–5 A |
| Dender | W 3–0 H | D 2–2 AD 1–1 H |
| KV Mechelen | D 1–1 A | L 0–1 H |
| RAAL La Louvière | W 1–0 H | W 2–1 HD 0–0 A |
| Points | 22 of 54 · 1.22 per game | 23 of 54 · 1.28 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
1 Gent wins2 draws0 KVC Westerlo wins
Goals per game1.67 – 1.00
Over 2.567%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets33% · 33%
- 22 Nov 2025KVC Westerlo0–0Gent
- 27 Jan 2024Gent2–2KVC Westerlo
- 13 Aug 2023KVC Westerlo1–3Gent
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Gent | KVC Westerlo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.37 | 1.47 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.53 | 1.47 | |
| Match goals | 2.89 | 2.95 | 2.70 |
| Over 1.5 | 84% | 79% | |
| Over 2.5 | 58% | 42% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 32% | 32% | |
| Both teams scored | 63% | 42% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 21% | 32% | |
| Failed to score | 21% | 37% | |
| Games | 19 | 19 |
| Gent | KVC Westerlo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 0.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 2.00 | 2.70 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 30% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Gent | KVC Westerlo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.53 | 5.16 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.12 | 4.84 | |
| Match total | 9.65 | 10.00 | 9.65 |
| Over 8.5 | 59% 10/17 | 68% 13/19 | |
| Over 9.5 | 53% 9/17 | 58% 11/19 | |
| Over 10.5 | 41% 7/17 | 58% 11/19 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.79 | 1.63 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.95 | 1.79 | |
| Match total | 3.74 | 3.42 | 4.05 |
| Over 3.5 | 47% 9/19 | 53% 10/19 | |
| Over 4.5 | 42% 8/19 | 32% 6/19 | |
| Gent | KVC Westerlo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.75 | 5.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.38 | 4.60 | |
| Match total | 9.13 | 10.00 | 9.65 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 4/8 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 4/8 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 3/8 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 3.30 | 4.05 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Simon Bourdeaud'hui 20 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.50league 3.81
Red cards0.05league 0.19
Cards 5+30%league 41%
Fouls23.3league 22.8
Penalties0.15league 0.30
Home wins35%league 40%
Gent3 with this referee
Record1-2-0
Cards · opp.1.3 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- D6 Dec 25A · Union St. Gilloise1–11
- D27 Jan 24H · KVC Westerlo2–22
- W26 Dec 23A · Kortrijk2–01
KVC Westerlo3 with this referee
Record1-1-1
Cards · opp.5.3 · 3.0
Pens for · against2 · 0
- L27 Jul 25A · Anderlecht2–52
- D27 Jan 24A · Gent2–27
- W4 Nov 23A · OH Leuven2–07
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Gent19 games · scored 26 · conceded 29
4
1
0-15
3
8
16-30
3
5
31-45
4
3
46-60
3
4
61-75
9
8
76-90
KVC Westerlo19 games · scored 28 · conceded 28
6
1
0-15
2
3
16-30
4
9
31-45
6
3
46-60
6
4
61-75
4
8
76-90
Gent10 games · scored 11 · conceded 17
3
1
0-15
2
5
16-30
1
3
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
2
5
76-90
KVC Westerlo10 games · scored 12 · conceded 8
3
1
0-15
1
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
