Gent
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Gent
11th · 23 pts · 19 played
DLDLL
First leg0–0
2–0Full time
KVC Westerlo
9th · 24 pts · 19 played
DDWDW
Gent48.7%fair odds 2.05
Draw26.1%fair odds 3.83
KVC Westerlo25.2%fair odds 3.97
Expected goals1.61 – 1.09total 2.70
Likeliest score1–112.4%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
KVC Westerlo
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Gent ↓ · KVC Westerlo → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 6.7 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.4 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Gent goals, columns KVC Westerlo goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.4%8.04
- 1–010.2%9.82
- 2–19.5%10.54
- 2–08.7%11.51
- 0–07.4%13.60
- 0–16.7%14.88
- 1–26.4%15.51
- 2–25.2%19.31
- 3–15.1%19.68
- 3–04.7%21.49
Winning margin
10.8%
Gent by 3+
fair 9.28
15.0%
Gent by 2
fair 6.66
22.9%
Gent by 1
fair 4.37
26.1%
Draw
fair 3.83
15.4%
KVC Westerlo by 1
fair 6.51
6.9%
KVC Westerlo by 2
fair 14.42
2.9%
KVC Westerlo by 3+
fair 34.19
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
17%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
14%5+
Gent goals
20%0
32%1
26%2
14%3
8%4+
KVC Westerlo goals
34%0
37%1
20%2
7%3
3%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gent win | 48.7% | 48.8% | -0.1 pp |
| Draw | 26.1% | 25.9% | +0.2 pp |
| KVC Westerlo win | 25.2% | 25.2% | -0.0 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 50.6% | 51.2% | -0.6 pp |
| Both teams score | 53.7% | 54.2% | -0.5 pp |
| Expected goals Gent | 1.61 | 1.62 | -0.01 |
| Expected goals KVC Westerlo | 1.09 | 1.10 | -0.01 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Gent win48.7%2.05
- Draw26.1%3.83
- KVC Westerlo win25.2%3.97
- Double chance Gent or draw74.8%1.34
- Double chance Gent or KVC Westerlo73.9%1.35
- Double chance KVC Westerlo or draw51.3%1.95
- Draw no bet Gent65.9%1.52
- Draw no bet KVC Westerlo34.1%2.93
Goals
- Over 0.592.6%1.08
- Over 1.575.7%1.32
- Over 2.550.6%1.98
- Over 3.528.6%3.50
- Over 4.513.7%7.30
- Under 1.524.3%4.12
- Under 2.549.4%2.02
- Under 3.571.4%1.40
Both teams to score
- Yes53.7%1.86
- No46.3%2.16
- Yes and over 2.541.3%2.42
- Gent win and yes22.5%4.45
- Draw and yes18.7%5.34
- KVC Westerlo win and yes12.5%7.99
Team goals
- Gent over 0.579.9%1.25
- Gent over 1.547.7%2.10
- Gent over 2.521.8%4.58
- KVC Westerlo over 0.566.4%1.51
- KVC Westerlo over 1.529.8%3.36
- KVC Westerlo over 2.59.8%10.21
- Gent clean sheet33.6%2.98
- KVC Westerlo clean sheet20.1%4.99
- Gent win to nil26.2%3.82
- KVC Westerlo win to nil12.7%7.88
Handicap
- Gent −1.525.8%3.88
- Gent −2.510.8%9.28
- KVC Westerlo +1.574.2%1.35
- KVC Westerlo +2.589.2%1.12
- KVC Westerlo −1.59.9%10.14
- Gent +1.590.1%1.11
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Belgian Pro League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored159
Favourite won43.4%
Avg chance given to result37.4%
1X2 Brier0.630
Over 2.5 called right53.5%
BTTS called right54.1%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 28 | 38.2% | 32.1% |
| 40–50% | 80 | 44.9% | 33.8% |
| 50–60% | 34 | 54.5% | 58.8% |
| 60–70% | 14 | 64.5% | 78.6% |
| 70–80% | 3 | 74.4% | 66.7% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 121 of 159 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6380 | 0.6341 |
| Avg chance given to result | 37.2% | 37.9% |
| Favourite won | 42.1% | 41.3% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 121 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 159 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.