Gent
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Gent were slight favourites.
Gent were the stronger side on L90 Strength (41 vs 28). Gent usually keep the ball (55% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Gent had 6.1 days of rest, Standard Liege 5.2 and had to travel 138 km.
Away travel138 kmRest days6.1 · 5.2Matches / 14d1 · 1
Gent53%
Draw25%
Standard Liege22%
Gent52%
Draw25%
Standard Liege23%
Gent53%
Draw25%
Standard Liege22%
Gent45%
Draw27%
Standard Liege28%
Gent52%
Draw25%
Standard Liege23%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Gent)
No weather data yet
RefereeNathan Verboomen
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.10
- Matches 30
Team strength
Gent
Standard Liege
41
L90 StrengthIn forecast
28
46
Current StrengthIn forecast
33
46
AttackIn forecast
29
61
DefenceIn forecast
29
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisStandard Liege
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GentStandard Liege
1.64
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.91
1.55
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.18
1.32
xGVia Att/Def
0.97
1.41
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.33
+0.32
Goals minus xGContext
-0.06
91%
Scored inContext
64%
18%
Clean sheetsContext
27%
12.73
ShotsContext
9.91
4.73
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.36
37%
On target shareContext
34%
8.09
Shots in the boxContext
6.09
64%
Box shareContext
61%
13%
ConversionContext
9%
2.29
OffsidesContext
2.50
13.45
Shots allowedContext
14.91
5.82
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.82
4.50
BlocksContext
4.45
4.36
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.64
75%
Save rateContext
76%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
480
PassesContext
351
400
Accurate passesContext
271
83%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.84
10.45
FoulsContext
11.00
10.73
Fouls sufferedContext
12.18
1.73
Yellow cardsContext
2.36
0.09
Red cardsContext
0.18
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.30
xGVia Att/Def
0.90
1.42
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.38
+0.40
Goals minus xGContext
-0.10
90%
Scored inContext
60%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
12.80
ShotsContext
10.00
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.30
39%
On target shareContext
33%
8.30
Shots in the boxContext
6.20
65%
Box shareContext
62%
13%
ConversionContext
8%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.56
13.40
Shots allowedContext
15.00
5.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.10
4.86
BlocksContext
4.30
4.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.80
76%
Save rateContext
75%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
484
PassesContext
339
406
Accurate passesContext
260
84%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.91
Team ratingContext
6.79
10.60
FoulsContext
10.90
10.50
Fouls sufferedContext
11.90
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Gent
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km54 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Standard Liege
Rest5.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel138 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Gent |
Standard Liege |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.1Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 19 Oct | 5.2Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 20 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 138 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 54 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.8 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Gent
Confirmed XI
33D. Roef(G)
44S. Van der Heyden
3M. Paskotši
29J. Duverne
20Tiago Araújo
15A. Ito
17M. Delorge-Knieper
18M. Samoise
11M. Sonko
6O. Gandelman
45B. Goore
Standard Liege
Confirmed XI
1M. Epolo(G)
7T. Mohr
24J. Homawoo
25I. Hautekiet
13M. Fossey
6H. Sahabo
23M. Ilaimaharitra
17R. Saïd
10D. Eckert Ayensa
14L. Kuavita
9T. Henry
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Gent
Absences are shown before kick-off
Standard Liege
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Gent+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Standard Liege+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Gent · Home
2.00points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-1-1
- Scored
- 1.80
- Conceded
- 1.00
Standard Liege · Away
1.20points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-3
- Scored
- 0.80
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 8 this season
| Opponent | Gent | Standard Liege |
|---|---|---|
| Cercle Brugge | W 4–2 A | L 0–3 H |
| Anderlecht | L 0–1 A | L 0–1 A |
| Dender | W 3–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| Antwerp | W 2–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| Club Brugge KV | D 1–1 H | L 1–2 H |
| KV Mechelen | D 1–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| Union St. Gilloise | L 2–3 H | L 0–3 A |
| RAAL La Louvière | W 1–0 H | W 2–0 A |
| Points | 14 of 24 · 1.75 per game | 8 of 24 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 Gent wins0 draws1 Standard Liege wins
Goals per game2.50 – 2.50
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 2 Mar 2024Standard Liege4–2Gent
- 29 Oct 2023Gent3–1Standard Liege
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Gent | Standard Liege | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.64 | 0.91 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.55 | 1.18 | |
| Match goals | 3.18 | 2.09 | 2.73 |
| Over 1.5 | 82% | 73% | |
| Over 2.5 | 64% | 36% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 36% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 73% | 36% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 18% | 27% | |
| Failed to score | 9% | 36% | |
| Games | 11 | 11 |
| Gent | Standard Liege | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.70 | 0.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 2.10 | 2.73 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 40% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Gent | Standard Liege | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.91 | 4.09 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.18 | 5.55 | |
| Match total | 10.09 | 9.64 | 9.60 |
| Over 8.5 | 64% 7/11 | 45% 5/11 | |
| Over 9.5 | 55% 6/11 | 36% 4/11 | |
| Over 10.5 | 45% 5/11 | 27% 3/11 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.82 | 2.73 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.09 | 2.18 | |
| Match total | 3.91 | 4.91 | 4.13 |
| Over 3.5 | 55% 6/11 | 82% 9/11 | |
| Over 4.5 | 55% 6/11 | 64% 7/11 | |
| Gent | Standard Liege | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.80 | 4.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.30 | 5.50 | |
| Match total | 10.10 | 9.90 | 9.60 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 2.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 4.10 | 5.10 | 4.13 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Nathan Verboomen 30 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.73league 3.90
Red cards0.23league 0.22
Cards 5+53%league 43%
Fouls23.4league 23.4
Penalties0.10league 0.29
Home wins43%league 42%
Gent2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.0.5 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- W2 Aug 25H · RAAL La Louvière1–00
- L1 Feb 24A · St. Truiden1–41
Standard Liege3 with this referee
Record2-1-0
Cards · opp.1.7 · 0.7
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W10 Aug 25H · Genk2–13
- W16 Mar 24H · AS Eupen4–00
- D26 Aug 23A · Kortrijk1–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Gent11 games · scored 18 · conceded 17
2
1
0-15
1
5
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
2
46-60
3
2
61-75
8
4
76-90
Standard Liege11 games · scored 10 · conceded 13
3
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
4
61-75
3
76-90
Gent10 games · scored 17 · conceded 14
2
1
0-15
1
5
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
2
46-60
3
2
61-75
7
1
76-90
Standard Liege10 games · scored 8 · conceded 13
2
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
4
61-75
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
